Ukrainian forces can “see off” Vladimir Putin troops launching key battles in the Donbas, Britain’s armed forces minister said on Tuesday.
James Heappey stressed that defeating the Ukrainian military units in the east of the country would be an “extraordinarily difficult nut for the Russians to crack” given that they were so well dug-in, well-trained and well-equipped.
He told Sky News: “I think that what we will see in the Donbas is a very different type of conflict to the one that we saw around Kyiv.
“I think we will see a conflict between two forces that are much more evenly balanced - where the Ukrainians have the advantage of defensive positions that have been dug in and prepared over the last eight years and that is going to make it an extraordinarily difficult nut for the Russians to crack.
“With all of the support that the Ukrainians are getting from around the world, there is every chance that the Ukrainians can see them off.”
Mr Heappey praised Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol who had “soaked up a huge amount of Russian combat power” by refusing to surrender and continuing to defend the besieged port city as Mr Putin’s invasion has now entered its third month.
He also emphasised that “nobody should rejoice” in the estimated 15,000 Russian military fatalities as these all meant “families who have not got their son or husband or brother coming home”.
However, he added: “But people in Russia should be clear that that is because the Russian plan has been defined by incredible hubris, massive political interference in military plan-making and we are seeking exactly the same now where there is pressure from Moscow to deliver a victory by May 9 so that Putin can have a nice parade through Red Square, even though that makes no military sense.”
May 9 is a key date in the Russian military calendar as it marks the Nazis’ surrender in the Second World War and an annual parade is held through Moscow’s Red Square.
Mr Heappey explained further: “The weather in the Donbas over the last week or so has been absolutely awful and so driving the Russian army to launch an offensive now simply so Putin can have a nice day in the sun on May 9 is just going to cost Russia thousands more lives.
“If you are on the side of the Ukrainians, and you want the Ukrainians to succeed in defending their territory, that Russian hubris is a massive advantage for Ukraine.
“But if I was a Russian family I would be deeply concerned that those in the Kremlin were not acting in my interest.”
The UK defence minister also dismissed Kremlin claims that Western allies of Ukraine were provoking a possible wider conflict by supplying Kyiv with arms.
Asked about Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s comments, Mr Heappey said it was not Nato as an organisation donating arms.
He stressed: “Sergei Lavrov might also reflect that the reason there is a war in Ukraine right now is because Russia rolled over the borders of a sovereign country and started to invade their territory.
“All of this noise from Moscow about somehow their attack on Ukraine being a response to Nato aggression is just utter, utter nonsense.”
Earlier, British defence chiefs said Mr Putin’s troops appeared to be trying to encircle heavily-fortified Ukrainian positions in the Donbas region.
In its latest intelligence briefing, the Ministry of Defence added: “The city of Kreminna has reportedly fallen and heavy fighting is reported south of Izyum, as Russian forces attempt to advance towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north and east.
“Ukrainian forces have been preparing defences in Zaporizhzhia in preparation for a potential Russian attack from the south.”
Meanwhile, America was set to host an expected gathering of more than 40 countries on Tuesday for high-level talks on how to urgently supply Ukraine with more weapons as the conflict escalates in the east of the country.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is holding the event at Ramstein Air Base in Germany following a trip to Kyiv where he pledged additional support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s war effort.
US Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a key goal of the talks was to synchronize and coordinate mounting security assistance to Kyiv that includes heavy weaponry, like howitzer artillery, as well as armed drones and ammunition.
“The next several weeks will be very, very critical,” he said.
“They need continued support in order to be successful on the battlefield. And that’s really the purpose of this conference.”
Driven back by Ukrainian forces from a failed assault on Kyiv in the north, Mr Putin has redeployed his troops into the east for a ground offensive in two provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, known as the Donbas.
Russia is expected to rely heavily on artillery strikes, trying to pound Ukrainian positions as Moscow moves in ground forces from multiple directions to try to envelop and wipe out a significant chunk of Ukraine’s military.
But the United States also estimates many Russian units are depleted, with some operating with personnel losses as high as 30 per cent -- a level considered by the US military to be too high to keep fighting, officials say.
They cite anecdotes like Russian tanks with sole drivers and no crew and substandard equipment that is either prone to breakdowns or out of date.
British assessments showed that around 15,000 Russian personnel had been killed in the conflict while 2,000 armored vehicles including some 530 tanks had been destroyed, along with 60 helicopters and fighter jets, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said on Monday.
The Kremlin has so far acknowledged only 1,351 troops killed and 3,825 wounded.
Russia still has advanced capabilities and superior force numbers, and has shown a willingness to keep pouring soldiers and units into the fight, US officials said.
Moscow can also economically afford to wage a long war in Ukraine despite being hammered by Western sanctions, defense experts and economists said.
For its part, Ukraine boasts high morale, creative and adaptive battlefield tactics and local knowledge of the terrain, along with arms and intelligence from the United States and its allies.
“They definitely stand a fighting chance,” a US military official said.
Speaking to reporters after his trip to Ukraine, Mr Austin said: “They can win if they have the right equipment, the right support.”
The meeting, which aims to ensure a steady flow of such aid, is taking place at Ramstein, a sprawling air base southwest of Frankfurt which only months ago was grappling with an influx of Afghan evacuees after the Taliban takeover of that country last summer.
Meanwhile, Mr Lavrov warned the West not to underestimate the considerable risks of nuclear conflict, and argued that Nato’s supply of weapons to Ukraine “in essence” meant that the military alliance was engaged in a proxy war with Russia.
Interviewed by Russian state television, the foreign minister was asked about the importance of avoiding World War Three and whether the current situation was comparable to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
“The risks now are considerable,” Mr Lavrov said according to a transcript of the interview on the ministry’s website.
“I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it.”
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he regarded Russia’s scaremongering as a sign of weakness.
Russia had lost its “last hope to scare the world off supporting Ukraine,” Mr Kuleba wrote on Twitter after Mr Lavrov’s interview. “This only means Moscow senses defeat.”
