For Vladimir Putin, it was never meant to be like this.
After years of threatening military action against Ukraine, the Russian leader finally made his move in February.
Possessing Ukraine was an obsession for Vladimir Putin. In his mind, it would cement his legacy, counter Western influence and recapture the glory days of the Soviet era.
A quick but bold invasion by his well-funded military was something his smaller neighbour could never hope to prevent.
The West — weak, fractured and terrified of being drawn into another world war — could be counted on to wring its hands and ultimately do nothing.
But nearly two months since he sent tanks across the border, Vladimir Putin's dream of an easy victory has turned into an unending nightmare.
Amid reports of a purge and a potential Kremlin coup, the Russian leader desperately needs a win in the battle for Ukraine's east.
Putin's ruinous war
More than 11 million Ukrainians — a quarter of the country's population — have been forced from their homes.
The United Nations estimates 1,892 civilians have been killed, though it warns the true number will be much higher.
Russia refuses to confirm its death toll, but a Kremlin spokesman decried "significant losses of troops" that he called a "huge tragedy for us".
Some experts estimate that at least 7,000 Russians have been killed since February — greater than the number of American troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
With ruinous sanctions imposed by the West, the humiliation of a sunken warship, and accusations of war crimes, Putin's risky gambit now looks like a massive blunder.
"This is the beginning of the end of Vladimir Putin," retired US Army lieutenant colonel Alexander Vindman told the BBC podcast, Putin.
While Putin has amended the Russian constitution so he can stay in power until 2036, Vindman said he was unlikely to last that long.
"I think the bargain with the population was stability and prosperity and power. That's now an impossibility," he said.
"He has an expiration date as far as I'm concerned."
Putin's fury results in mass 'purge'
Any attempt to remove Vladimir Putin from power would need to involve a decision by Russia's elites, according to Vindman.
This may be something the President is keenly aware of, with reports of a "Stalinist" purge inside one of Russia's most powerful agencies emerging last week.
More than 100 agents from Russia's secret intelligence agency, the Federal Security Bureau (FSB), have been removed from their posts, according to the UK Times.
All of those ousted reportedly worked for a division known as the Fifth Service, which was set up by Putin in 1998 to keep former Soviet Union countries within Russia's orbit.
The online investigative collective Bellingcat believes the agents were either sacked or arrested.
"I can say that although a significant number of them have not been arrested, they will no longer work for the FSB," said Bellingcat executive director Christo Grozev.
The head of the Fifth Service, Colonel General Sergey Beseda, has been detained.
Beseda was placed under house arrest in March for "reporting false information to the Kremlin about the real situation in Ukraine before the invasion", according to Grozev.
And in a significant escalation, he was recently moved to the Lefortovo prison, notorious for interrogation and torture during Stalin's Great Purge of the 1930s.
"It's meant to be a very strong signal that Putin means business," Andrei Soldatov, an expert on the Russian security services, told CNN.
While the reported purges may be a demonstration of strength by the Russian leader, they also reveal his frustration.
Declassified intelligence leaked to US media suggests that Vladimir Putin believes he was misled by his own team.
“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth," an unnamed US official told NBC News.
“We have information that Putin felt misled by the Russian military."
One expert said that by slowly surrounding himself with sycophants in the lead-up to his Ukrainian invasion, Putin had fallen into the perilous "dictator trap".
What is the 'dictator trap'?
Brian Klaas, a politics professor at University College London, believes the Russian leader fell victim to his own need for positive reinforcement.
He calls it the "dictator trap".
"It's a mistake that dictators make where they become the victim of their own lies," he told Vox.
Putin's inner circle has always been small, but it reportedly shrank to just a handful of advisors during the COVID-19 pandemic.
And not one of them appears to challenge the Russian leader.
In late February, Putin called this inner circle to a televised meeting so he could ask them whether he should invade Ukraine.
As Sergei Naryshkin, chief of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, stammered and looked visibly uncomfortable, Putin demanded a "yes or no" to war.
"Speak directly!" he twice ordered his intelligence chief, who was trying to explain the nuances of his position.
Eventually Naryshkin acquiesced and his boss told him to sit down.
"Putin, like many despots, isn't behaving fully rationally. He inhabits a fantasy world, surrounded by people who are afraid to challenge him," Klaas wrote in the Atlantic.
"He's made a catastrophic mistake in Ukraine — one that may yet prove his downfall."
Is Vladimir Putin really in trouble?
Last week, rumours flourished online that a potential coup was being planned inside the Kremlin.
But the source of the report was the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, which has every reason to spread misinformation about Vladimir Putin.
According to Ukraine defence officials, Russian elites want Putin's successor to be none other than his FSB director, Alexander Bortnikov.
Russia experts are quick to point out that Putin has put measures in place over the years to prevent such a move against him.
The Federal Protective Service, a government agency rumoured to have 50,000 employees, exists solely to protect Putin and his aides.
It is also believed to have formidable intelligence capacities.
"Firstly, anyone who deposes Putin would have to prove that everyone should obey his order," Vladimir Milov, a Russian opposition politician told CNBC.
"And secondly, everyone is surveilled by security services 24/7. If they had a two or three-person gathering to discuss it, they would be immediately reported."
Vladimir Putin also appears to believe victory is still within reach in Ukraine.
After failing to capture the capital Kyiv, Russia's military is now focusing its efforts on more familiar terrain: The flatlands of the eastern Donbas region.
"Our goal is to help the people who live in Donbas, who feel their unbreakable bond with Russia," Putin said.
Military experts believe the wide open plains will make it easy for Russia's military to encircle Ukrainian units and capture vast swathes of territory.
Some swift gains in Donbas may give Vladimir Putin the taste of victory he craves.
But defeat in the east would be the ultimate humiliation for the Russian leader, according to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
"No matter how many Russian troops are driven there, we will fight. We will defend ourselves. We will do it every day," he vowed.
"This battle can influence the course of the whole war."
