Russian President Vladimir Putin could reportedly offer Ukraine a ceasefire as he attempts to fortify Russian advances in Luhansk and Donbas, but only after his army takes over all of the latter regions.
What Happened: Putin would focus on capturing all of the Donbas before extending an offer of a ceasefire, according to Victor Abramowicz, a defense industry advisor, reported CNBC.
“Putin [may] offer the potential for a cease-fire if only to give him[self] an opportunity to fortify the gains that he’s managed to achieve so far,” said Abramowicz.
Abramowicz said should Russia succeed in meeting its limited objectives in Donbas and then offer a cease-fire it would put Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a difficult situation.
The expert said that there is no particular reason to believe that acceptance of a Russian cease-fire will lead to an “enduring peace,” according to CNBC.
However, if Zelenskyy doesn’t accept Russia’s offer, he risks “ losing, potentially, in due course, some of the Western support he relies on,” said Abramowicz.
Why It Matters: Abramowicz said the West could support Ukraine for another six months to a year and the upcoming mid-term elections in the United States would have a bearing on American backing for the country, reported CNBC.
The Russian army already occupies an entire province of Ukraine. Putin now wants his top generals to head towards Ukraine’s Donetsk province, a constituent of the Donbas region.
Russia’s leader recognized the Luhansk and Donetsk breakaway regions earlier in February.
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