A recent poll has revealed that the race for the House seat in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District has intensified, with the Republican incumbent, Rep. Jen Kiggans, holding a slight 1-point lead over Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal. The poll indicates that Kiggans has the support of 46% of registered likely voters, while Smasal is close behind with 45%.
Notably, the margin between the two candidates has narrowed since the previous poll conducted in mid-September, where Kiggans held a 5-point lead over Smasal. The district, encompassing Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Isle of Wight, and Virginia's eastern shore, is considered a crucial battleground in the state, pivotal for both Republicans and Democrats in their bid to control the House.
Given that the district is home to the largest naval base in the country, with a significant population of active duty and retired military personnel, military and veteran's issues are of paramount importance. The poll indicates that 46% of likely voters trust Kiggans more to handle these matters, while 42% favor Smasal.
On the topic of reproductive rights, Smasal is trusted more by 49% of respondents compared to 35% for Kiggans. The district has witnessed political shifts in recent years, alternating between red and blue affiliations twice in the past six years.
Furthermore, the poll also highlighted the preferences of likely voters regarding national figures, showing Vice President Harris leading former President Trump by two points in the district. Despite the district leaning more towards the right after redistricting post the 2020 census, President Biden managed to win it by a slim margin of two points.
According to Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, the research director for the Wason Center, the performance of Vice President Harris in the state will be a significant factor in determining the outcome of the race. The poll suggests that if Harris performs well, Smasal stands a chance, especially with high Democratic turnout and potentially lower Republican participation.
It is worth noting that Harris' lead has decreased since September when she was ahead by 11 points. In the 2021 elections, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin secured the district by 11 points, while Kiggans defeated Democratic incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria by 3 points.
Additionally, the poll indicated that incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine holds a seven-point lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao among likely voters in Virginia's 2nd district.
