KEY POINTS
- Several prominent figures in the crypto space said they trusted Polymarket data
- Other crypto users questioned the Popular Vote event contract data that showed a sudden surge for Trump on election day
- Polymarket has unveiled a new event contract category focused on the second Trump presidency
Decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket declared vindication late Wednesday following Republican Donald Trump's landslide victory Tuesday, reiterating that it has been consistent in providing "accurately forecasted outcomes."
The platform has been providing nearly hourly updates on X in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. elections. Majority of the updates showed that Trump had a strong lead over Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, raising questions about the accuracy of Polymarket data.
Polymarket Claims Vindication After Doubts
"Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits," the event-based cryptocurrency trading firm wrote in a statement Wednesday.
Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets like those pioneered by…
"We are proud to have delivered high quality, transparent data to everyone across the globe and ahead of everyone else. We are just at the beginning of building a generational platform that demystifies the events that matter most to people around the world," it added.
Polymarket critics have previously warned about the potential of manipulation, saying it could distort how the public perceives electoral outcomes.
Crypto Figures Back Polymarket Data
Ignas, co-founder of DeFi creator studio Pink Brains, said Polymarket is "the source of truth in a post-truth world," while prominent Web3 marketer Moxas said the platform is "the real MPV of predictions."
DeFi analyst Jake Pahor said Polymarket became his and his friends' "main source of truth" ahead of the elections so it wasn't a surprise to them that Trump won the presidential race.
Well-followed Crypto King said he was impressed that "people's wagers were so accurate in predicting outcomes," and Doug Cifu of market maker Virtu Financial congratulated Polymarket for their work, noting that "markets are efficient."
Uproar Over Popular Vote Data
However, many users on X pointed out that while Polymarket data may have been right in the presidential winner event contract, its data on the Popular Vote Winner was off.
oh yeah wisdom of the crowd is so wise so why were you 300% off on the popular vote market, slow your roll on the WOC talk LOL
— DanShan (@Spotonparts) November 6, 2024
One user posted a screenshot of Polymarket's data on the said event contract, pointing out how there was a "massive shift at the very, very end."
Here is a screen shot I took of how bad the markets predicted the popular vote winner in this election. Notice the MASSIVE shift at the very, very end. pic.twitter.com/ORwKj5SpGx
— Believe On Jesus Christ (@TheLastDon222) November 6, 2024
Another user questioned the platform why there was no update from Polymarket regarding a "short lived upturn of Harris's odds" days before the election. "That inclines me to distrust Polymarket as an innocent gauge." The same user said he wondered "if it was inside knowledge about voting machine manipulations."
As previously reported, Harris's chances improved one day before the elections even with Trump still in the lead.
Billionaire Mark Cuban also previously said that market prediction platforms don't indicate anything about the outcomes of the elections. He pointed out that Americans can't bet on Polymarket, indicating that it's not even U.S. voters who are putting their money on the platform.
Polymarket Unveils New Trump-Centric Event Contracts
Meanwhile, Polymarket now has a new category for crypto bettors to explore: Trump Presidency, which explores the potential events that will take place under the new administration.
Under the said category is a wide selection of event contracts such as who the president-elect will nominate as the Energy Secretary, and whether he will establish a "national Bitcoin reserve," something his ally, Sen. Cynthia Lummis, floated earlier this year.
