Another week, another must-win scenario for the Minnesota Vikings playoff hopes.
The sun is trying to set early for this 2023 Vikings season. Only the 1992 San Diego chargers have started 0-4 and made it to the playoffs in the Super Bowl era. That’s one team out of the 164 that have fallen in the proverbial 0-4 hole.
Buy Vikings TicketsThey have one more chance to salvage this season, but they go on the road to face another team that has started 0-3 as well in the Carolina Panthers.
While Carolina is in a rebuilding stage with a number-one overall pick at quarterback, a statement win to end the first quarter of the season would be huge for their confidence. The Vikings are trying to restore some faith in this 2023 season finishing in any way besides disaster.
In a game with these types of stakes this early, every advantage matters. Let’s see who has the edge at each position.
Quarterback
Advantage: Minnesota
Bryce Young is going to be a good quarterback in this league, maybe even great. He’s already showed glimpses of that. He looks comfortable in the midst of chaos, he seems to have already built himself into a leader in the locker room and taken on the role of franchise quarterback for Carolina. But he has a long way to go.
On the other side, we have the current leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns, ranks third in quarterback rating and fourth in adjusted net yards per attempt. Kirk Cousins is having an insane start to 2023 and the fact that the wins aren’t there to back it up is an unfair fact of life.
The edge goes to Minnesota.
Running Back
Advantage: Carolina
Carolina’s run game has been suboptimal, less than 100 yards a game is usually not where you want your run game to be. Miles Sanders has been their bell-cow back and has measured an average 3.4 yards a carry. Chubba Hubbard has shown that he can be a good backup with his 78 yards on 12 carries. Overall, this Carolina offense has been average to below-average on the season.
Minnesota’s running game was a liability the first two weeks of the season. They did not have a run over ten yards and had less than 70 yards through two games. Last game against the Los Angeles Chargers, the run game looked like a solid unit, but that’s not enough to restore confidence that this is the Vikings run game.
Edge goes to Carolina.
Wide receiver
Advantage: Minnesota
There is not much debate here. Adam Thielen is welcoming his former team into Charlotte. While that’s a great story, and it will be fun to see the Minnesota State alum again, the rest of the receiver room is not as noteworthy.
In Minnesota, they trot out a trio of receivers that has helped Minnesota to the second-best passing game in terms of yards. The talent for the Vikings clears the Panthers easily, especially with Justin Jefferson leading the group.
Edge goes to Minnesota.
Tight end
Advantage: Minnesota
Hayden Hurst and Ian Thomas are fine tight ends. Hurst is a decent route-runner who can get open and has soft hands like a receiver. Thomas is a good blocker who can be a check-down option if things fall apart for Young in the pocket.
However, Hockenson was paid top tight end money for a reason. The Vikings have been a more complete passing attack with Hockenson on the roster and backup Josh Oliver gives the blocking prowess, giving Minnesota a dynamic duo at the position.
Edge goes to Minnesota.
Offensive line
Advantage: Carolina
The nod to Carolina isn’t necessarily optimism for their line. Their 24.5% pressure rate is the 12th-worst in the NFL, and 35 pressures ties for 5th-worst. With a rookie quarterback, there must be more emphasis on protecting the young signal-caller.
The protection aspect is just as essential with a quarterback that lacks mobility out of the pocket. Unfortunately for Minnesota, their line is tied for the most pressures in the league (41) and has Kirk pressured on 27.7% of his dropbacks, the 7th-worst.
The edge goes to Carolina, but this is the same as being the shinier car in the junk lot.
Defensive line
Advantage: Minnesota
This shouldn’t be shocking given that Carolina has given up 130+ yards on the ground in their first three games. But, there is a logical reason Carolina could get the nod with respect to the guys with their hands in the dirt. His name is Derrick Brown. According to ESPN Analytics, Brown is tied for first in run-stop win rate (46%) while being double-teamed 40% of the time. So, why doesn’t Carolina get the nod?
For one, the Vikings have let up fewer rushing yards, despite that embarrassing display against the Philadelphia Eagles in week two. Another reason is that the player Brown is tied with atop the win-rate rankings is Minnesota’s Harrison Phillips. Phillips has been a force in the middle of the Minnesota defense against the run.
While Brown gives more in the pass-rushing department, the primary role of a defensive line is to keep the rushing in between the tackles to a minimum. Unfortunately, Carolina’s 4.8 yards inside the tackles is the sixth-worst. Minnesota’s 4.0 is tied for 15th, near the league average.
Edge goes to Minnesota.
Linebackers
Advantage: Carolina
Danielle Hunter has single-handedly been carrying this Minnesota pass rush. Out of the six sacks that Minnesota has, five of them are Hunter’s. While Hunter leads the league in tackles for loss, it isn’t enough to lift the Vikings over the Carolina LB position.
Brian Burns should be a person of interest whenever he is on the field on Sunday. Along with interior linebacker Frankie Luvu, their locations should be noted on every snap. On the other side, former All-Pro Justin Houston with Yetur Gross-Matos and Amare Barno as depth. An overall impressive assemblance of talent.
Carolina gets the edge.
Secondary
Advantage: Carolina
Putting the cornerback and safety positions just seemed like the right thing to do with the sizable difference in talent between the two teams.
Carolina boasts a top-ten pass defense and with names in the back end like Jeremy Chinn, Donte Jackson and Vonn Bell, the Panthers have become a fearsome defensive backfield.
Minnesota has far too many questions in their defensive secondary to compete.
Carolina gets the edge on both corners and safeties
Specialists
Advantage: Minnesota
Johnny Hekker and Eddy Piniero are reliable at their respective positions. Hekker averages around 50 yards a punt and has had 40% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Piniero did miss a 55-yarder last week against the Seattle Seahawks, but other than that he has been solid.
Minnesota’s specialists are just a bit more consistent. Wright averages around 50 yards a punt as well and around 44 net yards per punt. Greg Joseph is still perfect on the year as he hasn’t missed a single field goal or extra point.
