This is their last chance.
The Minnesota Vikings get one more chance to salvage their playoff chances as they face the Green Bay Packers in U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday Night Football at 7:20 p.m. CST.
Minnesota has a chance to atone for dropping the past two with a good performance against a surging Green Bay team.
After starting 3-6 this season, the Packers have found a way back into the playoff conversation, and it’s been behind the play of their offense.
Since their meeting in week eight, Green Bay’s offense has been fourth in EPA/play, sixth in success rate, third in EPA/dropback and tenth in EPA/rush. Jordan Love has come into his own as a passer. He’s sixth in Adjusted net yards per pass attempt, second in passing yards (2095) and third in passing touchdowns (16) in that span.
On the other hand, Minnesota has been in a bit of a slump after their improbable 3-0 win against the Raiders at the beginning of the month. In the last two weeks, they have allowed 57 points, more than the four games before them combined. They’ve allowed the fourth-most EPA/play and are third-worst in success rate.
This defense must follow these four keys to success to get back on track and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Get off the field!
Minnesota’s defense ranks ninth-worst in third-down conversion percentage (41.1%) and dead-last in fourth-down conversion percentage for 2023 (72.7%).
Last week, the Lions converted six of their twelve third downs and both fourth-down conversions to keep drives alive. Detroit had four drives that went for 13 plays or more, all ending in points (three touchdowns, one field goal). The NFL is difficult enough without allowing eighteen yards to Jahmyr Gibbs on a fourth and two.
Matt LaFleur and this Green Bay offense have playmakers like Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed (limited participant this week) who can find those few yards after the catch that make third and fourth down conversions more manageable. Since week nine, the Packers’ 6.4 average yards to go on third down ranks tied for second in the league in that span and is almost a full yard under the league average of 7.2. They’re also fourth in first-down conversion rate on third-down in that span.
Flores and company have no choice but to prioritize getting this Green Bay offense in uncomfortable third-down situations. In their first meeting, Green Bay was 5-of-14 on third down, including going one-of-four after Kirk Cousins was injured to salt the game away.
Defensive line's time to shine
Detroit had their way in the run game in a way that a team hasn’t against this Minnesota defense all year.
The Lions ran for 143 yards on 36 carries, including 80 yards from Gibbs on only 15 carries. Their ability to create gashes in the run game made it hard to continue to be aggressive and had Flores and company on their heels in both the run and passing games.
One of the reasons was the amount of movement the Detroit offensive line created on these run plays. Detroit’s line is one of the best in the league, but they specialize in getting their borderline top-five running game going.
Green Bay ran the ball at will against the Carolina Panthers last week, running for 162 total yards, including 127 from Aaron Jones (his first 100-yard game of the season).
That Minnesota defensive line must step up and clog the running lanes on Sunday for the Vikings to have a chance. If Flores has to pull resources from the coverage to help supplement the box, it could end up being a long day.
Be strategic with these blitzes
Jake Browning and Jared Goff realized that as long as you stay calm and composed in the pocket, something is bound to come open behind the blitzes. That’s the risk when you are as aggressive as this defense is. If you’re not getting home, the defensive backs stay out on their respective islands longer than anticipated, leaving room for explosive plays due to yards after the catch.
In the past two weeks, Minnesota sent the second- (28) and third-most (24) blitzes this season. The only other time they blitzed more was against the Los Angeles Chargers, where they sent five or more at Justin Herbert 41 times. These are also three of the five worst games the defense has had by expected points contributed from the defense.
Flores’ answer when the going gets tough is to get more aggressive. But that’s not when this defense is at its best. This defense’s superpower is its ability to shapeshift post-snap into blitz looks and drop coverages from the same mugged looks. If there are only blitz looks, the defense becomes static in the sense that it leaves them to be carved up either over the middle or where the blitzer just vacated from.
Play with a sense of desparation
“People need motivation to do anything. I don’t think human beings learn anything without desperation.” That’s a quote from Jim Carrey, and it is something that the Vikings can lean into.
This is the final shot. These could be some of the last snaps of the 2023 season. If you’re going to go out, go out with everything that you have.
What this defense has done to keep this team afloat amid some subpar play from the offensive end is enough to be celebrated; they rank tenth in points, fifth in total defensive DVOA, eighth in yards allowed per play, etc. The narrative around this defense has drastically shifted in a year’s time.
Now, they have two more opportunities to punch their ticket to the dance. Rookie Jaren Hall completes the carousel of quarterbacks this season, so the need for consistency falls on this defense.
Sunday night, with the whole football world watching, could be the best time to have a statement performance that this is a defense that deserves to be in the playoffs.
