Justin Jefferson has been an absolute gamechanger for the Minnesota Vikings since entering the league in 2020, and was far and away the most productive receiver on the team’s roster this season. His raw stats dwarfed those of his teammates throughout the year, and without his exceptional play, the Vikings’ offense would’ve been pedestrian, at best.
Only five wide receivers caught passes for Minnesota in 2022, though, and with important decisions set to be made regarding their roster construction in the coming weeks, the Vikings will need to take a hard look at the position in the offseason.
Here are our thoughts on the work that Minnesota’s receiving corps put in over the course of the 2022 season:
Raw stats: Justin Jefferson more than doubled the production of the Vikings' next-best receiver
Jefferson’s 1,809 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns led the Vikings by a wide margin, and his production was enough to earn him a first-team All-Pro selection at the end of the year. For perspective, Minnesota mainstay Adam Thielen, now 32 years old, caught just 70 passes on the season compared to Jefferson’s 128, and only managed to gain 716 yards.
Thielen did grab six touchdowns and was still a key part of the offensive game plan throughout the season, but by comparison, his contributions were relatively minimal. Third-year receiver K.J. Osborn was just behind Thielen in terms of production, snagging 60 passes for 650 yards and five touchdowns in a season that should see him rise as the second-option for Kirk Cousins in 2023.
The Vikings’ duo of Jalens, both Nailor and Reagor, rounded out the group, catching nine and eight passes respectively for a combined 283 yards in the 2023 campaign. Both scored one touchdown but weren’t featured much in Minnesota’s offense.
Salary cap considerations: Thielen may be the odd man out given Minnesota's financial situation
The aforementioned Thielen took a step back in 2022 and is due to account for nearly $20 million of cap space for the Vikings next season. For a second-option receiver, this number is simply too much to pay, especially given that Jefferson has proven that he can carry the load for Minnesota’s passing game.
The Vikings would need to make a calculated decision if they were to cut Thielen, though, as his current deal would incur a significant dead-money hit to their overall cap space if they were to part ways with him outright. None of the other receivers on the roster are due to have more than $5 million on the salary cap in 2023, so if the team moves on from anyone, it will likely be Thielen.
Looking ahead: Vikings are unlikely to invest heavily at receiver in the offseason
Given Osborn’s development into a reliable target for Cousins on passing downs, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will elect to invest at receiver, even if they part ways with Thielen. They have more important needs to address, especially on defense, if they intend to compete for a Super Bowl title in 2023, and given Jefferson’s outsized production and target share, the Vikings would be better served to focus on other areas of their roster.
If they do invest in a wideout, I would expect Minnesota to use a non-premium pick in the middle or late rounds of the draft, or for them to target a third or fourth option in free agency on a team-friendly deal.
