It was not even 18 months ago that the Victorian Coalition was seeking to dispel the “myth” that only the Labor party supported a treaty with the state’s First Nations people.
“This side of the house, both the Liberal and the National parties, are committed to working with the Indigenous community on treaty,” the Nationals leader, Peter Walsh, told parliament last year when he spoke in support of a bill establishing a Treaty Authority.
“Do not believe anyone who is peddling the myth that you have to work with the Labor party to get these outcomes. You can work with our side of politics as well.”
The authority was designed to act as an independent umpire to support negotiations between Aboriginal Victorians and the state government.
But after the results of voice referendum at the weekend, the Coalition’s commitment to the cause – and whatever moderate credentials it has – appears shaky.
It began in Tuesday’s Liberal party room meeting. The conservative Western Victoria MP, Bev McArthur, asked what the voice referendum result meant for the Coalition’s position on the treaty process, which, unlike that of other states, is already well under way.
McArthur then made a statement in parliament that argued the state’s treaty architects “cannot blindly progress without properly making the case and taking Victorians with them”.
The speech was followed by a press release, titled “No Voice, No Treaty” posted on McArthur’s website, though it was not distributed by the Coalition’s media team.
Asked if the party’s position on treaty would change on Thursday, the opposition leader, John Pesutto, was non-committal.
Pesutto said he would wait to see the government’s proposal and falsely suggested Labor was questioning its own commitment to the process.
“My understanding is the government isn’t itself sure about how to proceed in the space now, particularly after the weekend,” he told reporters.
“We’ll see what the government is going to propose. But at this stage, we’re not entertaining any immediate decisions on the matter.”
If he were to walk away from treaty, it wouldn’t be without precedent – the referendum result prompted the Liberal National party in Queensland to withdraw bipartisan support for a treaty process, and the NSW Labor government is assessing its next steps.
But doing so would fail to take into account several differences between the states.
For one, the results of the referendum vote in Victoria – dubbed the “Massachusetts of Australia” by the former prime minister John Howard for its progressive bent – were tighter than in any other state. While political analysts have cautioned against reading too much into the implications of the referendum for elections, it is worth noting most inner-city seats held by Liberals voted yes.
Yes votes were in the majority across all the polling booths in Pesutto’s marginal seat of Hawthorn. In Brighton, Kew, Malvern and Sandringham – seats held by key members of the shadow crossbench – about 55% of people voted Yes.
Victoria has also been on the path to treaty for years. Treaty negotiations are on track to begin in early 2024 and in all likelihood, much of the hard work will be done before the 2026 election. Queensland, on the other hand, heads to the polls next year.
Some Liberals are questioning why the issue needed to be aired at all this week – other than for machiavellian purposes.
“As usual, it’s a small group within our party that are hell-bent on keeping us in opposition,” one Liberal source loyal to Pesutto told Guardian Australia.
“Pesutto is trying to run a marathon here and they keep laying unnecessary hurdles in front of him.”
Another hurdle came in the form of a motion, put forward by MP Moira Deeming – who was expelled from the Liberal partyroom – to hold an inquiry into gender-affirming care for children.
According to several Liberals, some of its MPs supported her motion as it had been “worded carefully” and the party had a longstanding principal of supporting inquiry motions.
The party’s upper house leader, Georgie Crozier, said as much during Wednesday’s debate.
“This house does a lot of inquiries, and I do not see why this sensitive, complex issue should not be looked into also,” Crozier said.
One Liberal MP, however, said the party wanted to avoid the possibility of its MPs voting against each other.
But in supporting the motion – one that was doomed to fail regardless of their position – the opposition handed Labor an opportunity to take aim at Pesutto and the harm caused by such debates.
In a fiery question time on Thursday, the focus shifted from the government to the opposition, as each ministers spoke of Labor’s support for the LGBTQ+ community.
The health minister, Mary-Anne Thomas, said young trans people were among the most vulnerable people in the community, with more than half having self-harmed in the previous year and a shocking 71% having reported suicidal ideation.
“The Liberal party [in the upper house] gave their unanimous support to an ill-informed motion led by Mrs Moira Deeming in the other place. We know that this rhetoric hurts. We know it causes harm. The member for Hawthorn has shown once again he is a follower, not a leader,” Thomas said.
Allan said young trans kids were 15 times more likely to attempt suicide.
“We have to give them our love and support, not harmful motions,” she said, describing Deeming as “call[ing] the shots in the Liberal partyroom” despite sitting outside it.
The events at parliament this week can’t have helped with the perception the Liberal party is focused on fringe issues and internal battles.
But if you speak to Liberal MPs, they will tell you most Victorians don’t follow parliament. If anything, most will say they feel as though they’re on a winning streak, thanks to the decision by the government to cancel the 2026 Commonwealth Games and the resignation of Daniel Andrews – one of the most successful politicians of his generation – as premier.
Let’s see how long that feeling lasts.
