The Greens are likely to expand their numbers in Victoria's lower house, but with Labor retaining its majority the government will not need their support.
The ABC projected the Labor party had won a majority re-election about three hours after polls closed, following a campaign shaped by COVID lockdowns, rising hip-pocket pressures, suburban discontent, political scandals and a growing number of independents.
Labor suffered significant swings against it in some safe seats, but managed to hold on to them with large margins.
The Greens have retained the seats of Prahran, Brunswick and Melbourne, and Liberal preferences saw the ABC projecting they would take Richmond from Labor.
The party mounted a strong fight in the seats of Northcote, Albert Park, Pascoe Vale and Preston, recording large swings against Labor.
At 1am on Sunday, both Pascoe Vale and Preston were projected to be retained by Labor, and a Labor victory was likely in Albert Park and Northcote.
Victorian Greens leader Samatha Ratnam declared the result a "greenslide", saying the party's support was growing while Labor and the Liberals went backwards.
Northcote candidate Campbell Gome was among Greens candidates whose prospects were boosted by the Liberal Party's decision to put his party ahead of Labor on how-to-votes.
The electorate of Northcote includes the inner-northern suburbs of Northcote, Fairfield, Alphington, Thornbury and parts of Preston. Once a heartland Labor seat, Northcote lies in the band of seats where Labor has been strongly challenged for two decades by the Greens.
"I think that if the Greens win in Northcote it is not because the people of Northcote chose the Greens, but because the Liberal Party chose the Greens," Northcote Labor MP Kat Theophanous told the ABC about 8:30pm.
The ABC also projected a win for the Greens' Gabrielle de Vietri in Richmond. Ms de Vietri, a former Yarra City councillor, looked set to turn the seat green for the first time in 165 years.
The inner-city seat of Richmond covers the suburbs of Clifton Hill, Fitzroy, Collingwood, Abbotsford, Richmond, Cremorne and Burnley.
Retiring MP Richard Wynne was one of a number of senior MPs to not recontest his seat in this poll, vacating the seat after 23 years. His departure, along with shifting demographics, left the seat open for a much closer contest than in previous years.
Ms de Vietri was projected to win against Labor's Lauren O'Dwyer, who worked in the arts sector and as an Andrews government adviser. Ms O'Dwyer, who described herself during the campaign as a "proud Yorta Yorta woman", faced questions over her Aboriginal ancestry.
Celebrity candidates Sam Groth, Paul Mercurio could sit in lower house
The ABC has also projected the seat of Nepean, on Melbourne's Mornington Peninsula, will be returned to the Liberal Party.
The Liberal victor is Sam Groth, a former tennis pro, whose profile as a media commentator helped him mount a strong campaign in what was traditionally a safe Liberal seat before the 2018 Labor landslide.
Another high-profile name projected to claim a seat on the Mornington Peninsula was Labor's Paul Mercurio in the seat of Hastings.
Hastings, the most marginal seat in the state going into the 2022 vote, covers French Island and the western shore of Western Port Bay.
Mr Mercurio looked set to win the seat against the Liberals' Briony Hutton, a former Greg Hunt staffer, after the retirement of Liberal MP Neale Burgess.
A record number of candidates contested the Legislative Assembly in 2022.
The campaign began with 740 lower-house candidates, a number which was slightly reduced by the death of the Nationals candidate for Narracan, resulting in a deferred election in that seat.
The record field of candidates reflected the growing threat to the major parties from independents and minor parties.
In the early hours of Sunday, the ABC's election computer said a win was likely in Mornington for teal independent Kate Lardner, a doctor at nearby Frankston Hospital.
Dr Lardner's campaign was backed by the Climate 200 group.
The electorate of Mornington begins at the start of the Mornington Peninsula, taking in the communities such as Mount Eliza and Mount Martha as well as the suburb of the same name.
It was one of three bayside seats in traditional blue-ribbon Liberal heartland contested by a teal independent challenger.
The Liberals' Jess Wilson would retain Kew with a narrow margin against independent Sophie Torney, the ABC projected.
By 1am Sunday, it was too close to call in Hawthorn, where teal independent Melissa Lowe was up against Liberal John Pesutto — seen as a possible contender to take on the Liberal leadership.
Regional independents lose seats to Nationals
The ABC projected independent Ali Cupper losing her seat to the National Party's Jade Benham in Mildura.
The marginal seat of Mildura covers the regional city in the north-west of the state by the same name, as well as parts of Swan Hill Rural City, Buloke Shire and Yarriambiack Shire.
A similar story played out in Shepparton, which covers its namesake city and the neighbouring communities of Mooroopna, Numurkah and Nathalia.
Independent Suzanna Sheed took the seat from the National Party in 2014, but this year conceded defeat to the Nationals' Kim O'Keeffe, a Greater Shepparton councillor and former mayor who runs a cosmetic company.
Ms O'Keeffe told the ABC shortly after 9pm she was not declaring victory but that it was "a great night for us here in Shepparton".
"We need someone who will stick up for what we deserve," she said.
Ms Cupper and Ms Sheed had advocated for a non-government business program for Victorian parliament, which would allow independents more time during question time.
