Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has told a parliamentary inquiry he believes the state has reached its peak of COVID-19 hospitalisations.
Professor Sutton was called before parliament's new pandemic oversight committee for the first time, which was set up as part of the state's new pandemic specific laws.
The state recorded eight further COVID-19 deaths in Monday's update.
The number of people in hospital is at 873, down from the 889 reported on Sunday, which was down from the 953 recorded on Saturday.
Of those patients, 102 are in intensive care units, of whom 33 are on a ventilator.
"I think it is unlikely to go above 1,500 hospitalisations and I think it's probably already peaked," Professor Sutton said.
There were 10,053 new cases officially reported in Monday's update.
That tally was split by 6,485 rapid antigen tests (RATs) and 3,568 PCR test results.
It brings the total number of official active cases to 76,335, down from the 78,294 reported a day earlier.
Daily case numbers have been on a downward trend since mid-January, with the number of people in hospital each day following about a week behind.
But last week saw dozens of deaths reported, and the death toll has climbed to nearly 2,000 lives lost since the pandemic began.
"We welcome the direction that we're on, we seem to be coming off the peak," Health Minister Martin Foley said.
Daily infection numbers are expected to rise again when more than 1 million students return to face-to-face school learning from today, due to increased movement and asymptomatic testing.
Mr Foley said families and home-based environments were likely to be the sites of emerging clusters.
But it is hoped climbing vaccination rates will prevent against a spike such as that seen over the festive period.
Data provided by the government last week showed that while about 6 per cent of the adult population is completely unvaccinated, that cohort made up about one third of COVID-19 patients in intensive care.
About 38 per cent of adult Victorians have received three doses of a vaccine.
About 44 per cent of the five-to-11-year-old age group has had at least one dose of a paediatric vaccine, a 2 percentage-point increase on just a day earlier. That cohort has only been eligible for the vaccine since January 10.
Education Minister James Merlino said Australia had a "critical window of opportunity" before winter in the southern hemisphere to get as many people vaccinated against COVID-19 as possible.
"If we can get our kids vaccinated, double dosed, before we head into winter, that is going to be critically important," he said.
Home learning remains 'last resort' as 1 million students return to school
The government's return-to-school plan centres around RATs, face masks, mandatory booster shots for teachers, and ventilation in the classroom.
Some parents have told the ABC their children's return to school has been delayed by positive RATs being delivered this morning.
The tests are voluntary but strongly recommended for all students and staff, with mainstream schools getting two tests per student per week, and specialist schools getting five tests per student per week.
The Halliwell family took rapid antigen tests this morning before Mayer, Pippa and Ethan returned to Rosewood Downs Primary School in Dandenong North.
"It tickles my nose a little bit", said Pippa, who started Year 2. "It sometimes make me laugh."
They said they would be happy to do the test twice a week if it meant they could see their friends and play sport.
Mother, Kelly Halliwell, admitted it would be a change to the morning school routine.
"But we'll cope with it. We want them to go back to school so we'll do what we need to do," she said.
Voon Wong said he hoped his daughters Juliette and Phillipa's first day of Prep at Blackburn Primary School signalled the return to some normality in Melbourne.
"We've done all the things we're supposed to be doing. We've done all the precautions, we just have to hope that it's all OK," Mr Wong said.
Grade one student William Ross said he did not mind having to take a RAT and was excited to see his friends again.
Blackburn Primary School principal Andrew Cock told ABC Radio Melbourne that he and the rest of the staff were "really, really excited" for students to arrive.
He said students who were unable to come to school after delivering a positive RAT result showed the system was working.
"It is that layer of protection that we want to see in schools and to try and avoid that spread that may occur," he said.
Mr Merlino said the biggest challenge for the return to school would likely be staff absences.
The government encouraged retired educators to join a job pool to deal with expected teacher absence, with the virus still spreading in the community.
More than 340 former teachers and 28 principals had joined the pool by Monday morning, the government confirmed.
Mr Merlino reiterated the government's stance that a return to remote learning would be an "absolute last resort" and would be implemented on a school-by-school basis.
Teaching and learning materials will be provided to students who have to isolate with COVID-19 or as a close contact, but not to children who are simply kept at home by their parents.
"There will be challenges and there will be bumps over this first few weeks," Mr Merlino said.
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said he was concerned the Victorian government had not done enough to ensure schools would stay open.
He said the government should guarantee kids would be at school for the entire 2022 school year.
"Our schools must be open, our kids must be at school and I hope today, the first day back for many, is the first day back of the whole year at school for Victorian students," he said.
"It's where kids should be.
"It's the safest, smartest place for kids to be and I don't want to see any more lockdowns or school closures. None of us do."
