Authorities are predicting flooding in parts of Victoria this spring, as dams across the state reach capacity.
The forecast wet conditions mean the chance of bushfires is lower than usual for spring.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Diana Eadie said the likelihood of wet weather was partially due to a 70 per cent chance of La Niña developing this season, which she said would likely form in early to mid spring.
"All indicators are suggesting we'll see a wetter than average spring across much of the state, particularly in the north and east of Victoria," she said.
Ms Eadie said the forecast wet conditions were due to the La Niña alert, the Indian Ocean Dipole being in negative, and the southern annular mode being in a positive phase.
She said the bureau expected cooler than average temperatures across the state in September, before increasing to closer to average temperatures through October and November.
Victorian dams almost at capacity
Victoria SES chief officer Tim Wiebusch said dams in Victoria were already at 90 to 100 per cent capacity.
"Our catchments in Victoria are already at saturation levels we haven't seen for some time, particularly in the central and eastern parts of the state," he said.
He said if the bureau's predictions around increased rainfall eventuated, flooding would likely occur.
"It really does depend how quickly the rain comes and in what volumes as to what levels of flooding we'll see," he said.
He advised Victorians to download the flood guide for their local area from the SES website.
Mr Wiebush also warned people not to drive through floodwaters, saying it only takes 15 centimetres of flooding to make a small vehicle float.
Fire risk lower than usual this spring
Due to predictions of high rainfall in Victoria this season, much of the state is at a lower risk of bushfires.
Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer Chris Hardman said people in the arid parts of the state still needed to be prepared for fires.
"We are unlikely to see large scale bushfires in the east and north-east of the state, but it doesn't mean that bushfires will not occur," he said.
"All it takes in Victoria is just a few days of drier than expected weather and we can expect that we will see bushfires and grassfires."
He said the usual seasonal firefighting workforce had been employed and was being trained.
New fire danger rating system rolls out this week
A new fire danger rating system will be implemented across the country on September 1.
The new system will contain four warnings — moderate, high, extreme and catastrophic — down from the previous six.
The nationally consistent system was a recommendation out of the 2020 bushfire royal commission.
Country Fire Authority chief officer Jason Heffernan said the new system was created to simplify messaging around fire risk.
"Communities didn't quite know what to do when they heard those various ratings," he said.
The new system will use eight vegetation types, up from two, to determine the fire danger rating. These are forest, grassland, grassy woodland, shrubland mallee health, spinifex, button grass and pine.
He said Victoria's north-west will be prioritised in rolling out the new signs, where the fire risk is higher.
"I would anticipate that those areas in the eastern parts of the state would be a lot slower into the traditional fire danger period," he said.
