Victoria is expecting overseas migration and international student numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of 2024, though experts say more needs to be done to ensure it actually happens.
Tuesday’s state budget forecasts Victoria’s population to grow by 1.2% in 2022-23 and 1.7% in each of the following three years, which is a return to the average growth rate of the past two decades.
It comes after a 0.1% increase in population in 2021-22 and a decrease of 0.7% in 2020-21, when many foreigners and international students returned home due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“With border restrictions now eased, the flows of migrants and foreign students to Victoria are expected to gradually increase over the course of 2022, reaching around pre-pandemic levels by 2023-24,” the budget papers said.
“Victoria’s strong labour market, highly ranked education sector, welcoming and diverse multicultural community, and liveability should once again attract an outsized share of Australia’s overall migrant intake.”
The education policy lead at the Mitchell Institute at Victoria University, Dr Peter Hurley, said he expected it will take a couple of years for international students to return to pre-pandemic levels.
“There’s still those lingering effects of the pandemic, particularly for places like China, where it’s still very difficult to come and go,” he said.
“They haven’t quite got open borders, so that’s has a big impact on Chinese international student’s choice.”
Hurley said there were about 90,000 students enrolled in Australia universities but studying remotely, mainly in China. He said Australia would probably have lost international students when its border was closed to other countries who offer easier pathways to citizenship, such as Canada or the UK.
The government also expects interstate migration to improve over the course of 2022 and 2023, after Victoria lost tens of thousands of residents to other states after lengthy lockdowns.
Simon Kuestenmacher, a co-founder of The Demographics Group in Melbourne, described the budget forecasts as “realistic”, given the state was unlikely to impose lockdowns again.
“People might still harbour ill will towards the ruling party if they’re so inclined, but this will fade away and we’ll see a return to pre-pandemic population shifts, meaning the young people of Australia will move to Melbourne and stay put for a decade,” he said.
“We’ll also see a return to pre-pandemic levels of migration sooner rather than later because we want migrants and I think there’s still plenty of migrants who want to come to Australia.”
Kuestenmacher was optimistic the state could recruit 2,000 healthcare workers from overseas – as announced in the budget – but said the government should look beyond financial incentives to lure them to Victoria.
“You obviously want to make sure those healthcare workers are being offered good money but they also need to be offered affordable housing close to their job,” he said. Make those two things happen and you’ve got it nailed.
“If I was the government building a new hospital somewhere, I would also be buying up land next to it to build wonderfully spacious apartments for nurses and other healthcare workers who don’t make upwards of $250,000.”
The chief executive of the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, Melinda Cilento, said she was pleased to see the government acknowledge the important role skilled migrants play in Victoria’s economy.
“The Victorian government signalling that they have the welcome sign out is really important, because with the borders having been closed for two years, I think that messaging in and of itself is an important factor in getting back to where we were,” she said.
Cilento said she wanted to see the federal government’s visa approval process sped up and easier pathways to permanent residency offered as Australia competes with other nations for skilled migrants.
