Vice President Kamala Harris has made a strategic decision to select Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate for the upcoming election. However, the choice of Walz may not necessarily guarantee a boost in capturing rural voters for the Democratic ticket.
An analysis of voter trends from the 2020 and 2022 elections reveals that Walz's performance among rural voters mirrors that of President Biden. In Minnesota, Biden secured 38% of rural voters in 2020, while Walz garnered 37% during his successful 2022 re-election campaign.
To enhance their appeal to rural voters, Harris and Walz have wasted no time in hitting the campaign trail, organizing events in key Midwestern swing states. The duo aims to leverage Walz's blue-collar background and Midwest roots to resonate with voters.
Walz's persona as 'Coach Walz,' a nod to his teaching and coaching background, has been highlighted during rallies to emphasize his relatability to the electorate. Harris plans to rely on Walz's influence in pivotal Midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where his regional connections could sway voters.
Despite these efforts, the question remains whether Walz can effectively attract demographic groups that have historically posed challenges for Democrats. The analysis indicates that Walz's performance among White voters without a college degree closely mirrors Biden's numbers in Minnesota.
While Biden's success in the 2020 election, particularly in the 'Blue Wall' states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, is a precedent the Harris campaign aims to replicate in 2024, the effectiveness of Walz in securing crucial voter blocs will be closely monitored.
The voter analysis, conducted in collaboration with a news outlet, offers insights into the American electorate's voting patterns. By utilizing surveys from the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago and comprehensive voting data, the analysis provides a holistic view of the electorate, including early and mail-in voters.
