As Lidia Thorpe privately prepared for political life after the Greens and as an independent Senate crossbencher, cross bench veterans say she takes her place in a world of round-the-clock political wrangling and power games – one in which the radical could struggle to hold her own.
Senator Thorpe has in recent days put feelers out to colleagues outside the Greens party room, The New Daily understands, and discussed building a new political network as she prepares for the national profile and nonstop negotiations that come with a new seat at the centre of political life.
But some old hands suggest the Senator could struggle to develop a brand of radical politics that says parliament is illegitimate while operating from a corner of the building where such a view has been implicit for decades.
Senator Thorpe’s political future and former party’s mission to drag the government to the left depends on her ability to hold her own in a culture of old school dealmaking, bluffs and double-crosses while finding a new outlet for the public attention and public money they generate.
Outsized power
Members of the crossbench, a collection of minor parties and independents who sit between the government and opposition in the upper house, have often exercised outsized power on the political process and the allocation of resources – known to detractors as horse trading.
Its voting system is engineered to make the Senate represent a wide cross-section of Australia (elections to the lower house are winner takes all).
In practice this means governments rarely have the majority they need to pass bills into law, which usually requires negotiation with what in previous parliaments has been a motley crew of political ideologies and interest groups sometimes likened to Star Wars’ famous bar scene.
The stakes are high; senators have opportunities to influence legislation and spending in ways most MPs would not see if they served for decades; but negotiations don’t only pit senators against the government seeking their vote – but often against each other.
Art of the deal
Glenn Druery, a political strategist who has been an advisor to a string of crossbench senators in recent parliaments, says he does not think Senator Thorpe is committed to carving out a new niche in the crossbench.
That’s something he concluded less than a minute into her resignation press conference when she promised to vote with her old party on climate change bills.
“If I was advising her, I’d say she’s already done one thing wrong,” he said.
“She’s broadcast her intentions. You never do that.
“She’s already given away a vote. She’s given it away. The government knows they’ve got her and it’s bang, bang, bang.”
According to Mr Druery, that bargaining chip should only have been relinquished after she at least made a show of needing some convincing from the government.
Ms Thorpe, he reckons from what he has seen so far, is not dispositionally inclined to discretion or making cold calculations instead of voicing her views.
“I’ve helped a lot of people get elected to Parliament and a lot of them sit down at the end of four, five, six years and say, ‘What happened?’
“They couldn’t get things done.”
Those who get things done, he says, lay down firm expectations that their votes are only secured in exchange for things. The alternative is to vote according to one’s principles and “squeak and squawk” for nothing.
A subtle dance
Being a crossbench Senator with a balance-of-power vote comes with power and privileges such as having senior ministers and the prime minister in one’s address book, Rex Patrick, the senator for South Australia whose term in the upper house ended last year.
But negotiations are hardly one way and it took him years to master their subtleties of a dance that usually involves more than one colleague.
“It’s always about numbers. The government will always try and find the path of least resistance to get them,” he said.
“If the bill’s about limiting immigration, they’re more likely to persuade Pauline Hanson to support it than they are David Pocock.”
“A good Senate leader knows what will tickle each of the crossbencher’s buttons.
He says success is about always keeping one’s options open, keeping true to promises and, wherever possible, being considered as a potential option for a government on the hunt for support.
“I’d never actually say publicly that I wouldn’t support a particular piece of legislation if they did something,” he said.
“I would say something like: ‘If the government were to do that, I might not be inclined to work with them on things they care about.’
“You can be very subtle about it; that would be enough for them to understand the stakes, while leaving options open.”
A maestro
Some politicians take more readily to it than others, he said.
“[Former Finance Minister] Mathias Cormann was the quintessential crossbench whisperer. He would have a discussion with you. He’d try to get you across the line, but if he didn’t, if he was unable to, he would walk away professionally and never criticise you publicly.
“He’d think: I can’t get your agreement on this. I might get your agreement on the next thing.”
Mr Cormann’s office was especially watchful for any sign Penny Wong taking to the floor of the Senate and shaking hands with crossbench MPs, taken as a sign of a possible crack in Coalition negotiations
That job now falls to Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, who will have the job of securing Senator Thorpe’s vote.
And she will need to work hard, at least if the former Green sticks to the right strategy, Mr Patrick said.
“She’s going to have to walk the fine line between keeping her supporters happy and making sure the government is a little bit nervous about whether they have her support.”
