It wasn't easy being Ford Motor's chief executive in 2023.
The company was under fire from the United Auto Workers union for better wages, and the second-largest automaker's foray into electric vehicles was raising eyebrows.
It's been easier lately.
Ford last fall successfully negotiated a deal to avert widespread strikes, and the latest EV-sales data from Kelley Blue Book suggest that while it has a lot of catching up to do with Tesla, vehicle volumes are trending in the right direction.
Unsurprisingly, Ford investors have responded kindly to the better backdrop, and a pop in investor sentiment hasn't gone unnoticed by Wall Street analysts, including Bruce Kamich.
Kamich has been evaluating stock, bond and futures markets for more than 50 years and recently updated his stock-price outlook for the Dearborn, Mich., auto stalwart.
His take on what's next for Ford shares may surprise many.
Ford sees sales strength
Americans have shifted their buying interest from sedans to trucks and SUVs, and that's been good news for Ford (F) .
Related: Ford CEO says American car buyers need to break this addiction
Ford's F-150 is the top-selling full-size pickup truck in the country, with nearly 750,000 of them sold in 2023, according to Hedges Co. For comparison, GM's Chevy sold 553,000 Silverado vehicles, and Stellantis sold 444,000 Ram pickups last year.
Ford F-Series pickups have been America’s best-selling truck for 45 consecutive years.
Although the automaker isn't as dominant in SUVs, the Ford Explorer, Escape and Bronco still made the list of the top 20 most popular SUVs sold in America last year, according to Kelley Blue Book.
The company's electric vehicle plans are also beginning to bear fruit. Ford released its Lightning F-150 to fanfare in 2022, and while it has suffered some growing pains, second-quarter sales were promising.
Ford sold 23,957 electric vehicles in Q2 2024, up 61% from a year earlier and above the 20,223 units sold in the first quarter, according to KBB's quarterly Electric Vehicle Sales Report.
F-150 Lightning sales jumped 77% to 7,902, Mustang Mach-E sales rose 47% to 12,645, and electric Transit units climbed 96% to 3,410.
For perspective, Tesla delivered 444,000 vehicles in the second quarter.
In Q1, Ford's total revenue rose 4% year-over-year to $44.4 billion, while earnings were unchanged at 44 cents a share.
Ford's stock chart results in a new price target
Solid sales have helped Ford's share price. After tumbling below $10 last October amid union worries, Ford's stock has rebounded, trading above $14 on July 16 — the highest level since summer 2023.
Related: Ford doesn't make the most 'American' truck sold (neither does GM!)
The move has bulls cheering, but investors are right to wonder whether Ford shares are priced to perfection following their recent rally.
Analyst Kamich's new analysis of Ford suggests the shares still have room to climb.
"Prices have been hammering out a base pattern the past two years. Prices trade above the bottoming 40-week moving average line," said Kamich.
"The weekly [on-balance volume] line is okay but I would like to see more strength out of this indicator. The [moving average convergence divergence] oscillator is slightly above the zero line."
On-balance volume is essentially up minus down-day volume. MACD is a momentum indicator that uses three distinct moving averages over various time periods to spot accelerating or decelerating stock price action.
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Ideally, it's best when both of these indicators are positive, says Kamich. "The real breakout point, in my book, is for Ford to close above its 2023 highs in the $15.50 area."
If Ford can capture $15.50 and hold that level, it could set up the shares for another run.
Kamich used daily and weekly point-and-figure charts to update his Ford stock price targets.
"In the daily point-and-figure chart of Ford, I can see an upside price target in the $19 area," concluded Kamich. "If Ford can keep climbing, it might be time to buckle up before a breakout over the highs of 2023."
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