Mathieu van der Poel was part of a group previewing the course for the elite men's road race at the UCI Cycling World Championships in Glasgow and came away feeling that even as a favourite, the chance of winning the rainbow jersey "is still small".
The Dutchman is a main favourite for Sunday's elite men's road race after winning Paris-Roubaix and Milan-San Remo this season but predicts that challenges in maintaining position in the peloton and ample opportunities to attack as reasons the race will be difficult in effort and tactics.
Speaking to Dutch journalists, Van der Poel wouldn't single out his top rivals for the rainbow jersey. "I can name names. But so many riders can win here that I don't dare. I myself am also part of that, although even as a favourite the chance is still small that you will actually win," he said, according to Wielerflits.
Van der Poel noted the many corners on the city circuit and how difficult the race will be to control. The circuit brought back memories of the 2018 European Road Championships that were held in Glasgow, where Matteo Trentin beat him and Wout van Aert from a shattered leading group to take the title.
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"I recognized a lot from the European Championship in 2018, even though that was a while ago. It seems like there are even more corners added to this circuit. It is almost racing from corner to corner," he said, adding that it was almost too technical. "Especially since we're racing that loop for a long time. Maybe it would have been better with a slightly longer run-up and a few less laps on the circuit. Now it's atypical, something we're not used to.
"It is going to be very gruelling - a race of attrition - although, at the same time, I think this is a very fair course. Due to the accumulation of efforts, it will be very difficult in the end. Positioning is crucial; everyone knows that. Am I happy with it? We'll have to wait and see, but normally it should be something that suits me. It is important to ride at the front and race as concentrated as possible."
Van der Poel says that due to the technical nature of the course, any stroke of bad luck could mean a lot more extra effort to return than on other courses.
"You would really have a lot of work to get back to the front," he said. "The 'longest' straight is also not very long. Once you're in the front, you can sit there for quite a while. There are very few overtaking opportunities."
The turns will also make it easy for attackers to quickly get out of sight of the peloton, making the race less predictable.
"You can attack anywhere on this circuit. Not just on the uphill sections. There are still so many difficult intermediate parts where attacking pays off. Because there is no communication and you race in national teams, it will also be an uncontrolled course. Those two factors mean that the World Championships will always be a strange race. But the hardest part will be not to miss the good breakaway."
There are two short but steep climbs near the end of the lap on Scott Street and Montrose Street, and while not hard by Tour de France standards, it will wear riders down after 11 laps.
"It's OK once, but if you have to sprint up it every lap - just like the other five, by the way - that will weigh on you. It has some really nasty bits in it. That's why positioning is so important, which will also make it more hectic. But the fact is, if you're too far back, three corners later, you're still sprinting to keep the wheel.
"If you really are the strongest, you can make a difference on those two steep slopes. Only that is obvious. But again, the main thing is to stay alert. The decisive move can go away anywhere here. At the European Championships in 2018, we also got away at a very strange moment between the climbs. Suddenly that was good. That can also happen at any time on Sunday, and then you have to be comfortable. Break away and get twenty seconds, and you will hardly ever see the peloton again."
Van der Poel isn't focused on any single rider - be it the Belgian trifecta of defending champion Remco Evenepoel, sprinter Jasper Philipsen, or his Classics rival Wout van Aert.
"You shouldn't focus too much on one person, I think. That's also the problem with a course like this. There are a lot of riders who know they have to attack early. We will have a very long final, I am convinced of that. It's hard to decide who to target right now. There are certain countries where I think we should always make sure that we are on board. Belgium, but I am also thinking of Denmark. Mads Pedersen was really strong in the Tour de France and is always there at the Worlds, and they also have good riders. The most important thing is that we do not race behind the facts."
The elite men's road race starts in Edinburgh on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. UK time with an expected finish around 4:00 p.m. Follow the race live with Cyclingnews and return for full reports, news, analysis and more.
