ORLANDO, Fla. — U.S. Rep. Val Demings is planning to take on Republican Marco Rubio for his seat in the Senate next year and is expected to announce her bid in the coming weeks, an adviser to Demings said Tuesday, confirming an earlier report from Politico.
Demings, D-Fla., has openly weighed running for higher office for months and has been considered a potential opponent to challenge Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Rubio in 2022. The Politico report left a little wiggle room, quoting an aide who said there was a “98.6% chance” she would run against Rubio.
A national Democrat with knowledge of the party’s strategy confirmed the report, calling Demings “an impressive and formidable candidate whose potential entrance would make the race against Rubio highly competitive.”
Demings herself wasn’t yet willing to share the news, however.
“I’m humbled at the encouraging messages I’m seeing today,” Demings tweeted Tuesday. “I know the stakes are too high for Republicans to stand in the way of getting things done for Floridians, which is why I’m seriously considering a run for the Senate.”
If she runs and wins the Democratic nomination, Demings will be facing a two-term senator in a state where the last Senate race was extremely close. In 2018, former Republican Gov. Rick Scott ousted Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson by just 10,000 votes.
Asked about her political future by the 19th website this week, Demings said Rubio was complicit with the U.S. Senate being a place where legislation goes to die.
Politicians need to “support laws that will support the people that you represent, like gun violence laws,” she said in the interview. “Did you forget Parkland? Did you forget Pulse? We need people who really care about the people that they represent, not just the privileged few, but all of them. I believe my record of service by leadership and the desire to want to represent all people and get some things done immediately are important to Floridians. I think that is exactly the reason for me to run statewide.”
A statement from the Rubio campaign blasted Democrats for “tripping over themselves in a race to the left to find a candidate who will help advance Nancy Pelosi’s socialist agenda.”
“Senator Rubio’s record of results for Florida is unmatched, from passing the bipartisan PPP program that saved millions of Florida jobs to providing critical tax relief for hard-working families,” the statement said. “While Democrats are flailing to find their next candidate to advance their radical agenda, Senator Rubio is focused on delivering wins for the people of Florida.”
The race would be a key test of the strength of both parties in Florida and could tip the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, currently split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. In Florida, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried is the only statewide elected Democrat, the GOP firmly controls the Legislature and DeSantis is raising tens of millions of dollars for his reelection bid next year.
A potential Senate primary could also feature U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Winter Park Democrat, as well as former Orange-Osceola state attorney Aramis Ayala and former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson.
A former Orlando police officer who rose through the ranks to become the first woman chief in 2007, Demings burst onto the national scene in 2019 in the midst of her second term in Congress when she was chosen as a manager for the first impeachment trial of President Donald Trump.
She made impassioned pleas for impeachment and has been a frequent guest on national political talk shows as well. Later, she was on the shortlist of possible running mates for Joe Biden.
John Morgan, a personal injury attorney and Democratic fundraiser, said he spoke to Demings within the last few days about the decision and thinks she wrestled between Senate and governor.
But ultimately, he suspects Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was persuasive.
“I don’t think there’s any question that right now the shining star in the Democratic Party in Florida is Val Demings,” said Morgan, who backed her to become Biden’s running mate. “I think Rubio is an easier target than DeSantis at this moment in time.”
Morgan said Demings’ police background may have been a weakness among Democrats considered for vice president, but thinks it will be a strength of hers in courting Florida voters.
“I like her chances, a lot,” he said, adding he thinks her candidacy will bolster the odds of the Democratic nominee for governor.
Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, who appointed Demings police chief, said he hadn’t spoken to her in a few weeks but expects she and Rubio would run a tight race.
“I think she would do a fantastic job and think it would be a very competitive race between her and Senator Rubio,” Dyer said. “I think she’s well thought of here, and I think she’ll have a lot of national support as well.”
Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, said he’d put Demings as the favorite among Democrats rumored for Senate at the race’s onset but would favor Rubio in the general election right now.
Demings’ entrance into a statewide race also sets up a number of local story lines heading into the 2022 election cycle.
Chief among them is a potential primary headlined by two Orlando-area Democrats, as Murphy has also been considering a run against Rubio.
A person close to the Murphy campaign said she’s still meeting with Democrats around the state before making a final decision, but she believes she would win a primary and the general election.
The adviser said Murphy would be a formidable primary opponent for Demings because she is a strong fundraiser with experience winning tough races, citing her upset victory of incumbent John Mica in 2016, and maintaining a swing district ever since.
She also could have appeal in South Florida, combating messaging that Democrats are socialists, given her family’s story of fleeing communism in Vietnam. Murphy also speaks Spanish.
“We still firmly believe that should she run, she’d win a general election,” the adviser said.
Axios reported last week that Murphy planned to launch her own campaign next month.
The Tallahassee Democrat reported that Murphy met with local Democrats in the state capital Monday evening and addressed the race.
“It’s become clear to me that the only thing Marco Rubio cares about is Marco Rubio, so I think he needs to retire or be retired,” the newspaper reported she said Monday.
Demings’ congressional seat also would likely lead to a much-watched race.
State Sen. Randolph Bracy of Ocoee and Orlando City Commissioner Bakari Burns are considering launching campaigns for the post, although redistricting could scramble the lines of a district now considered a lay-up for Democrats.
