Outlook
The Company's Resort Reported EBITDA guidance for the year ending July 31, 2025 is unchanged from the prior guidance provided on September 26, 2024. The Company is updating its guidance for net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc., which it now expects to be between $240 million and $316 million, up from the prior guidance range of $224 million to $300 million. The primary difference is due to a $17 million increase from the gain on sale of real property related to the resolution of the October 2023 Eagle County District Court final ruling and valuation regarding the Town of Vail's condemnation of the Company's East Vail property that was planned for Vail Resorts' incremental affordable workforce housing project, a transaction that has been recorded as Real Estate Reported EBITDA. Additionally, the guidance is updated to include a decrease in expected interest expense of approximately $2 million which assumes that interest rates remain at current levels for the remainder of fiscal 2025. These changes have no impact on expected Resort Reported EBITDA. The Company continues to expect Resort Reported EBITDA for fiscal 2025 to be between $838 million and $894 million, including approximately $27 million of cost efficiencies and an estimated $15 million in one-time costs related to the multi-year resource efficiency transformation plan, and an estimated $1 million of acquisition and integration related expenses specific to Crans-Montana. As compared to fiscal 2024, the fiscal 2025 guidance includes the assumed benefit of a return to normal weather conditions after the challenging conditions in fiscal 2024, more than offset by a return to normal operating costs and the impact of the continued industry normalization, impacting demand. Additionally, the guidance reflects the negative impact from the record low snowfall and related shortened season in Australia in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, which negatively impacted demand and resulted in a $9 million decline of Resort Reported EBITDA compared to the prior year period. After considering these items, we expect Resort Reported EBITDA to grow from price increases and ancillary spending, the resource efficiency transformation plan, and the addition of Crans-Montana for the full year.
The guidance also assumes (1) a continuation of the current economic environment, (2) normal weather conditions for the 2024/2025 North American and European ski season and the 2025 Australian ski season, and (3) the foreign currency exchange rates as of our original fiscal 2025 guidance issued September 26, 2024.
Foreign currency exchange rates have experienced recent volatility. Relative to the current guidance, if the currency exchange rates as of yesterday, December 8, 2024 of $0.71 between the Canadian Dollar and U.S. Dollar related to the operations of Whistler Blackcomb in Canada, $0.64 between the Australian Dollar and U.S. Dollar related to the operations of Perisher, Falls Creek and Hotham in Australia, and $1.14 between the Swiss Franc and U.S. Dollar related to the operations of Andermatt-Sedrun and Crans-Montana in Switzerland were to continue for the remainder of the fiscal year, the Company expects this would have an impact on fiscal 2025 guidance of approximately negative $5 million for Resort Reported EBITDA.
The following table reflects the forecasted guidance range for the Company's fiscal year ending July 31, 2025 for Total Reported EBITDA (after stock-based compensation expense) and reconciles net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. guidance to such Total Reported EBITDA guidance.
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Fiscal 2025 Guidance | ||
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(In thousands) | ||
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For the Year Ending | ||
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July 31, 2025 (6) | ||
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Low End |
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High End |
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Range |
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Range |
| Net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. | $ 240,000 |
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$ 316,000 |
| Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests | 23,000 |
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17,000 |
| Net income | 263,000 |
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333,000 |
| Provision for income taxes (1) | 91,000 |
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115,000 |
| Income before income taxes | 354,000 |
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448,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 295,000 |
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279,000 |
| Interest expense, net | 174,000 |
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166,000 |
| Other (2) | 21,000 |
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13,000 |
| Total Reported EBITDA | $ 844,000 |
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$ 906,000 |
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| Mountain Reported EBITDA (3) | $ 818,000 |
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$ 872,000 |
| Lodging Reported EBITDA (4) | 16,000 |
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26,000 |
| Resort Reported EBITDA (5) | 838,000 |
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894,000 |
| Real Estate Reported EBITDA | 6,000 |
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12,000 |
| Total Reported EBITDA | $ 844,000 |
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$ 906,000 |
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| (1) The provision for income taxes may be impacted by excess tax benefits primarily resulting from vesting and exercises of equity awards. Our estimated provision for income taxes does not include the impact, if any, of unknown future exercises of employee equity awards, which could have a material impact given that a significant portion of our awards may be in-the-money depending on the current value of the stock price. |
| (2) Our guidance includes certain forward looking known changes in the fair value of the contingent consideration based solely on the passage of time and resulting impact on present value. Guidance excludes any forward looking change based upon, among other things, financial projections including long-term growth rates for Park City, which such change may be material. Separately, the intercompany loan associated with the Whistler Blackcomb transaction requires foreign currency remeasurement to Canadian dollars, the functional currency of Whistler Blackcomb. Our guidance excludes any forward looking change related to foreign currency gains or losses on the intercompany loans, which such change may be material. Additionally, our guidance excludes the impact of any future sales or disposals of land or other assets which are contingent upon future approvals or other outcomes. |
| (3) Mountain Reported EBITDA also includes approximately $25 million of stock-based compensation. |
| (4) Lodging Reported EBITDA also includes approximately $4 million of stock-based compensation. |
| (5) The Company provides Reported EBITDA ranges for the Mountain and Lodging segments, as well as for the two combined. The low and high of the expected ranges provided for the Mountain and Lodging segments, while possible, do not sum to the high or low end of the Resort Reported EBITDA range provided because we do not expect or assume that we will hit the low or high end of both ranges. |
| (6) Guidance estimates are predicated on an exchange rate of $0.74 between the Canadian dollar and U.S. dollar, related to the operations of Whistler Blackcomb in Canada; an exchange rate of $0.67 between the Australian dollar and U.S. dollar, related to the operations of our Australian ski areas; and an exchange rate of $1.18 between the Swiss franc and U.S. dollar, related to the operations of Andermatt-Sedrun and Crans-Montana in Switzerland. |
