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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Farage claims chance he could be PM within four years is up to 25% – as it happened

Nigel Farage at a Trump rally in November 2024.
Nigel Farage at a Trump rally in November 2024. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

  • Keir Starmer has said that the government will leave “no stone unturned” in investigating the failings by government agencies that contributed to allowing Axel Rudakubana to murder three young girls at a dance class in Southport last summer. He made the statement as Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, suggested ministers unreasonably held back information about the killings from the public last summer. Farage even accused the government of a “cover-up”. (See 4.40pm.)

  • Ministers have congratulated Donald Trump on his inauguration. Within the last few minutes David Lammy, the foreign secretary, posed this on social media.

Many congratulations President @realDonaldTrump on your historic return to the White House.

There are no greater allies than the UK and US. Our close economic, security, intelligence and cultural ties deliver growth and prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.

I look forward to further strengthening the special relationship over the years to come.

But the Liberal Democrats have described Trump’s inauguration as “deeply worrying” (see 9.57am), and the Green party has called him a fascist (see 10.24am).

  • Farage has claimed that there is a 20/25% chance he could become prime minister before Donald Trump leaves the White House. (See 11.50am.)

  • A bid by unionists in Northern Ireland to stop new EU rules for chemicals, including paint and household detergent, being applied in the region has been formally rejected by the government. (See 2.30pm.)

Updated

Work on some of Boris Johnson’s ‘40 new hospitals’ will not start until 2039, Streeting tells MPs

Here is Denis Campbell’s story about the announcement.

Streeting said that he was doing two things with his annoucement today: putting the hospital building programme on a “firm footing”, with sustainable funding; and giving an “honest, realistic deliverable timetable”.

Under the Tories, the projects were all due to be built by 2030. But Streeting said almost half of the 40 projects will now not even start this decade. Nine are now due to start between 2030 and 2035, and another nine will not commence until between 2035 and 2039.

Updated

Streeting tells patients should be 'furious' at Tories because plan for '40 new hospitals' not realistic

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, is making a statement to MPs about the hospital building programme promised by the Tories. When Boris Johnson was PM, he promised 40 new hospitals.

Streeting said that the plans were a fiction. He said the new building projects could not be delivered on time.

And he said that, when he took office, he was “shocked” by what he discovered.

The scheme was not just years behind schedule. The money provided by the previous government was due to run out in March, just weeks from today … The truth is that no funding had been set aside for future years. The money simply wasn’t there.

This was a program built on the shaky foundation of false hope. If I was shocked by what I discovered, patients ought to be furious, not just because the promises made to them were never going [to be met] but because they can see when they go into hospital, how badly the health service needs new buildings. The NHS is quite literally crumbling.

Starmer says government will leave 'no stone unturned' in investigating failings that contributed to Southport murders

Keir Starmer has said the government will leave “no stone unturned” in investigating the failings by government agencies that contributed to allowing Axel Rudakubana to murder three young girls at a dance class in Southport last summer.

In a statement following Rudakubana’s surprise decision to plead guilty this morning as his trial was opening, Starmer issued a statement saying:

Our thoughts are with the families of Bebe King, Elsie Dot Stancombe and Alice da Silva Aguiar – and the families of everyone affected – who will be saved the ordeal of a protracted trial.

The news that the vile and sick Southport killer will be convicted is welcome.

It is also a moment of trauma for the nation and there are grave questions to answer as to how the state failed in its ultimate duty to protect these young girls.

Britain will rightly demand answers. And we will leave no stone unturned in that pursuit.

At the centre of this horrific event, there is still a family and community grief that is raw; a pain that not even justice can ever truly heal.

Although no words today can ever truly convey the depths of that pain, I want the families to know that our thoughts are with them and everyone in Southport affected by this barbaric crime. The whole nation grieves with them.

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has accused the government of a “cover-up”, claiming that when he demanded information about the background of the killer last summer, it should have been disclosed. At the time the police said there was a limit to what they could say because of the need not to prejudice future legal proceedings.

As Vikram Dodd reports, Rudakubana had been referred three times to Prevent, the government’s scheme to stop terrorist violence – in part because of his potential interest in the killing of children in a school massacre,

Kemi Badenoch has also implied that ministers held back information unreasonably last summer. In a statement on social media, she said:

As we learn more details of Axel Rudakubana’s horrific crimes, my thoughts are first and foremost with the victims’ families.

We will need a complete account of who in government knew what and when. The public deserves the truth.

This case is still in court and there are, properly, limits on what can be said at this stage. But once it concludes on Thursday with sentencing, there are many important questions the authorities will need to answer about the handling of this case and the flow of information.

Updated

Here is a picture of Boris Johnson at the Capitol in Washington, where he is attending President Trump’s inauguration. The picture has been posted on social media by Frank Luntz, the American pollster and consultant who knew Johnson at Oxford and helped in his campaign to become president of the Oxford Union.

The Scottish parliament voted last month to stop MSPs also serving as either MPs or peers. It also voted for ministers to consider stopping MSPs from being councillors while they are serving in Holyrood too. The Scottish government has now launched a consultation on so-called dual mandates to decide exactly how this law will be implemented.

The UK will launch a grain verification scheme “to track grain stolen from occupied areas of Ukraine”, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has announced. It says:

Using cutting-edge science to determine where grain has been grown and harvested, the UK has developed a database to support Ukraine’s efforts to trace and stop grain theft from occupied regions.

The scheme will strengthen the food security of Ukraine and also ensure the country remains a major supplier of agricultural produce worldwide.

This scheme is part of the 100-year partnership between the UK and Ukraine announced by Keir Starmer last week.

Consumer confidence in the UK remained broadly flat in the final quarter of last year, according to Deloitte Consumer Tracker. It says:

The latest Deloitte Consumer Tracker shows that UK consumer confidence remains close to its highest level in five years with confidence at -8.1% for Q4 2024 compared with -7.9 % in Q3 2024.

However, after recovering for two years, the lack of improvement in the overall index in Q4 points to consumers being nervous about the UK economy following the budget including how higher taxes on businesses might impact their income and prices at the till. Consumers’ view on the state of the economy in the UK dropped by 14 percentage points in Q4 compared with Q3.

The Conservative party flagged up the figures to journalists, describing them as “depressing”.

Ulster Unionist party leader Steve Aiken has said the Northern Ireland secretary Hilary Benn has “failed at the first hurdle” to pass a credibility test over the government’s commitment to ensuring the region does not suffer because of Brexit. (See 2.30pm.)

He said Northern Ireland had been told it could use the “Stormont Brake” to stop EU laws applying in Northern Ireland but nowhere else in the UK if it impacted significant society there. He said:

Northern Ireland is far from being in the ‘best of both worlds’ and Hilary Benn had an opportunity to actually examine the impact of this divergence, he has demonstrably failed at this first hurdle.

The Department for Transport has confirmed plans to roll out contactless ticketing at 47 rail stations in the south-east of England from the start of February. It says another 49 stations in the south-east will get contactless ticketing this year, including four stations which were not previously on the list: Baldock, Hitchin, Letchworth Garden City and Stevenage.

The DfT has named all the stations affected in its news release.

Peter Hendy, the rail minister, said:

The ticketing system is far too complicated, so we’re taking the stress out of navigating the labyrinth of fares and replacing it with new technology so passengers can simply tap-in tap-out, while being guaranteed the best fare available at the time on the day.

This hassle-free technology will simplify thousands of journeys every day for passengers across the South East, and it’s something we will roll out to other cities as soon as we can, unlocking growth across the country as part of our Plan for Change.

The Conservatives have claimed the government is just taking credit for something it started. Referring to a similar announcement in 2023, Gareth Bacon, the shadow transport secretary, said: “Labour claim they have a ‘Plan for Change’, but they are simply taking credit for schemes introduced by the Conservatives.”

Updated

DUP says government's failure to use Stormont Brake 'grave mistake'

The DUP has described the government’s decision to not allow the use of the Stormont Brake to block EU legislation affecting the labelling of chemicals in Northern Ireland (see 2.30pm) as a “grave mistake”.

Gavin Robinson, the DUP leader, said:

The government’s decision not to activate the Stormont Brake on this important issue is wrong.

The secretary of state’s decision to ignore publicly presented evidence from industry representatives about the updated EU law on chemical labelling is a grave mistake that will exacerbate trade friction between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Trade flows in chemicals between Great Britain and Northern Ireland are worth in the region of £1bn annually. Industry experts have warned that the harmful consequences of this regulation will be increased costs for manufacturers and new barriers to trade within the United Kingdom.

But Jim Allister, leader of the TUV, a more hardline unionist party, claimed the decision was also an indictiment of the DUP. He said:

The decision of the secretary of state to uphold EU colonial rule in Northern Ireland, by rejecting the united unionist demand to pull the Stormont Brake, is not just a calculated slap in the face of all democrats but creates a moment of truth for the DUP.

The DUP, in packaging their ignominious climbdown to return to the Stormont executive, claimed that through the Stormont Brake they had cut the pipe through which EU law flowed into effect in Northern Ireland.

Now that the Stormont Brake has so demonstrably failed, the big challenge from today is to the DUP.

Having enthroned Sinn Féin as first minister on these false pretences, how can the DUP continue in the executive now that the Stormont Brake has been shown to be useless?

Unionist bid to use Stormont Brake to block EU chemical packaging law in Northern Ireland rejected by Westminster

A bid by unionists in Northern Ireland to stop new EU rules for chemicals, including paint and household detergent, being applied in the region has been formally rejected by the government.

However, Hilary Benn, the Northern Ireland secretary, has committed to reducing barriers with the EU, with sources saying the government will launch a consultation aimed at aligning UK rules on chemical labelling with the rest of the EU.

In a letter to Edwin Poots, the Stormont Speaker, Benn said:

The government will take any future steps necessary to avoid new barriers arising from the classification, labelling and packaging regimes in place in Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

To this end we will consult on how best to safeguard the UK internal market, including on whether to apply a consistent regime across the UK. This reflects the strong shared interest between those bringing this notification forward and the government in protecting the UK internal market.

At the centre of the row were new EU rules relating to the labelling and packing of chemicals. They covered text size and line spaces on all chemical products, from specialist industrial to consumer products, including aircraft paint, household soaps and fabric softeners.

In a blow to the Democratic Unionist party and other unionists, Benn has written to Stormont’s speaker to tell them their bid to block the regulations by pulling the so-called Stormont Brake did not meet the conditions set out in the Windsor Framework. It was the first time MLAs (members of the legislative assembly) had tried to use the Stormont Brake, a new procedure introduced when Rishi Sunak renegotiated the post-Brext trade rules for Northern Ireland to give Stormont more power to object to EU regulations.

Unionists expressed concern that some suppliers in GB would withdraw products from Northern Ireland leaving industry and consumers without the same choices as in the rest of the UK.

Benn’s team found no evidence either in submissions by unionists or from the chemicals industry pointing to any societal damage if the new EU rules on chemicals applied in NI but not GB.

In addition they found that rules on labelling of chemical products in NI already differed from GB under devolved administration.

Updated

NHS has 'slipped backwards' from pandemic in terms of how it shares data internally, Chris Whitty tells Covid inquiry

The NHS has “slipped backwards” in terms of how it shares patient data internally, Prof Sir Chris Whitty has told the Covid inquiry.

Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser and chief medical officer for England, has been giving evidence to the inquiry for the fourth time in a module that is focusing on vaccines.

As Whitty started giving evidence, Hugo Keith, lead counsel for the inquiry, said the development and rollout of vaccines, and research into how existing medications could help treat the virus, were both areas of “very considerable success” for the UK.

Whitty said he agreed. Explaining what happened, he said:

I think we entered the pandemic with a very large amount of data in a very fragmented state, and part of the problems we had in the first three to four months was that corralling the data so you can link different bits of data together was extremely difficult.

Once that had come together, once we had the data linked up much more thoroughly, that was very central to our ability to do both observational studies and indeed do passive follow-up of people who’d been in clinical trials … to identify people who might be at risk and might need particular treatment. So bringing together data more effectively is absolutely essential.

But now the NHS was not doing that so well, he suggested.

I regret to say I think we have slipped backwards since our time in the pandemic in terms of bringing data together – so I think we are now in a less good and more fragmented place than we were in the middle of the pandemic.

Whitty said there were legal and practical obstacles that meant data was not shared as much as it should be. He explained:

What happened during the pandemic is people overcame both a set of procedural and functional barriers, and also the legal structure which allowed data to be shared changed because there was a direction, because there’s an emergency, and we’ve now gone back to a non-emergency setting.

So firstly, the legal framework is back to where we were previously – and I consider that’s actually regrettable, I think it is much more sensible we share data across the NHS.

And then I think that there has always been a difficulty in, for example, linking up general practice data, with secondary care [hospital] data – this is not good for patient treatment on an individual basis, and you can end up with someone going to several different settings and data which is held in one place is not held in another. That’s potentially dangerous, certainly a problem.

It’s not good for the organisation of the NHS because it means that we have a much more ineffective structure, and it’s not good for research, which, of course, is central here.

Whitty said sharing data made it easier for the NHS to spot “rare but important side-effects” of treatments.

The danger is otherwise, a doctor in York will see it one day, and a doctor in Shrewsbury will see it the next day, and each one of them only sees one case and doesn’t put the pattern together – the faster you can actually put all these pieces of information together, the faster you’ll pick up something which is important but rare.

Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell interviewed by police about pro-Palestinian rally that led to mass arrests

The former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, the former shadow chancellor, have been voluntarily interviewed by police after the demonstration on Saturday, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Metropolitan Police did not identify the pair but said that two men aged 73 and 75 had been “released pending further investigations” after they attended voluntary interviews at a central London police station on Sunday.

Officers have alleged that some protesters tried to breach conditions imposed on the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) protest by marching out of Whitehall. This has been denied by protest organisers.

The BBC first reported that Corbyn, 75, the MP for Islington North; and McDonnell, 73, who represents Hayes and Harlington; would be interviewed by police following the protest.

The MPs, who were pictured at the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) protest on Saturday, both sit in parliament as independents.

Corbyn and McDonnell declined to comment when contacted by the PA news agency.

Reeves' new Office for Value for Money unlikely to have 'meaningful impact', Treasury committee says

The Office for Value for Money (OVfM), a Treasury unit set up by Rachel Reeves in the budget last year to make spending on public services more effective, is unlikely to have any “meaningful impact”, the Commons Treasury committee says.

In a summary of the findings in its report on the OVfM, the committee says:

In a report … MPs raise concerns that the OVfM Chair, David Goldstone CBE, is only contracted for a year and that the unit only had 12 full-time members of staff in December. It is therefore difficult to see how it will have a meaningful impact on driving efficiencies in departments.

The committee also highlight seven examples of organisations, teams and processes which have already been established to ensure value-for-money is considered in public spending decisions. Those organisations are only a selection from the bodies working on value for money across Whitehall, which shows there is a clear risk of unnecessary duplication.

The report highlights that there is very little information on which parts of government the OVfM will work with, how it will scrutinise departments’ investment proposals and who is responsible for evaluating OfVM’s effectiveness. The committee, therefore, calls on the Treasury to publish those details.

There are two ministerial statements in the Commons today after 3.30pm. The first is by David Lammy, the foreign secretary, on the 100-year partnership with Ukraine confirmed by Keir Starmer on his visit to Kyiv last week, and after that Wes Streeting, the health secretary, is talking about the government’s review of the hospital building programme.

As Denis Campbell reports, the government has concluded that Boris Johnson’s plan to build 40 “new hospitals” by 2030 is unachievable.

No 10 says it's not worried Giorgia Meloni invited to Trump's inauguration, but not Starmer

At the No 10 lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson said that it was “entirely normal” for the UK government not to sending a minister to the president’s inauguration.

The spokesperson said the government would be represented at the ceremony by the outgoing UK ambassador, Karen Pierce. He said this was '“entirely normal, entirely routine”. He went on:

[It is the] US custom that foreign governments are officially represented by their ambassadors. Obviously, MPs have attended in the past – they get private invites from members of Congress etc. They are obviously not representing the government.

Asked if there were concerns that the US could be forming a deeper and more special relationship with Italy, after the country’s premier Giorgia Meloni was invited to the inauguration, the spokesperson replied:

No, and ultimately, the UK and US have got a unique relationship when it comes to a wide range of issues. The prime minister and President Trump have already had many conversations about where we can deepen that relationship, and we look forward to continuing to work together in the years to come.

No 10 signals it expects Mandelson to be approved as UK ambassador to Washington, despite reports suggesting Trump could block him

Downing Street has signalled that it expects Donald Trump to accept Peter Mandelson as the new UK ambassador to Washington – despite some reports at the weekend saying he could be blocked.

Some papers ran stories, based on quotes from unnamed sources, suggesting that the White House might refuse to accept Mandelson as an ambassador, partly because of his business links with China through his consultancy, Global Counsel.

Asked if the PM was worried that Mandelson might be rejected, the PM’s spokesperson told journalists at the morning lobby briefing that Mandelson had considerable expertise and was the right person to be ambassador.

The next step would be for Mandelson to present his credentials to the president “before becoming HMA [His Majesty’s ambassador]”.

Asked if the government had a plan B in case Mandelson were turned down, the spokesperson replied:

Lord Mandelson is our candidate for ambassador. We think he will make an excellent ambassador, working for the country in the national interest. He’s got the experience, as the foreign secretary [in broadcast interviews this morning] to further deepen the relationship.

The spokesperson also said that, when Trump reviewed Mandelson’s credentials, he would see the “considerable experience” he had that would make him an “excellent ambassador”.

Asked when Mandelson would present his credentials, the spokesperson said it was for the Americans to decide the timing.

Farage plays down concerns about Elon Musk interfering in UK politics, saying it's like Beaverbrook or Murdoch

In his 5 News interview Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, also played down concerns about Elon Musk interfering in British politics, suggesting he was like Lord Beaverbrook or Rupert Murdoch.

Beaverbrook and Murdoch are both examples of foreign-born businessmen who have had huge impact on British public life as owners of newspapers. But Beaverbrook, who was born in Canada and owned the Daily Express and other papers, ran his businesses from the UK and even served as a government minister during the first and second world wars. And Murdoch, who was born in Australia, was also based in the UK for much of his career.

Musk, who is the richest man in the world and who owns the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), has never run British media organisations and he has a job with the Trump administration.

Asked if he was concerned about the influence that Musk seemed to be exerting over British politics, Farage replied:

We’ve had this for all time. Lord Beaverbrook, you know, owned the newspapers in between the war …

The point I’m making is that actually the Elon phenomenon is not quite as unusual as you’re saying it is. Rupert Murdoch, an Australian, now an American – massive impact over our lives.

Musk has used his posts on X, which are promoted prominently to all users of X, and not just his 213m followers, to strongly attack Keir Starmer and the Labour government, frequently by promoting false information. He has also reportedly discussed with allies how he could bring down Starmer’s government.

Farage said Musk was only influential on topics like grooming gangs, where he led calls for a national inquiry, when people thought he was talking sense. He went on:

If they think he doesn’t make sense, he won’t be. Don’t underestimate, you know – people are good at making their own minds up.

When it was put to Farage that it was hypocritcal of him to be opposed to Brussels having an influence over UK politics, but happy about an American intervening, Farage claimed that was different because the EU made law affecting the UK.

Is Farage right to claim there is 20/25% chance he could become PM while Trump still president?

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, thinks that his chances of becoming PM before Donald Trump leaves the White House in January could be as high as 25%. He made the comment in an interview with Dan Walker for 5 News being broadcast tonight. Farage told Walker he did genuinely believe he could be the next PM. And this is what he said when he was asked if that could happen during Trump’s presidency.

Look, Labour have got a whopping great big majority. The only thing that really brings an early election is if we get an economic meltdown.

Now, that is not impossible for two reasons. One, the level of indebtedness is worse than it was in 2008 when we had the big meltdowns. And I think we’ve lived through rocketing stock markets for years. That can’t go on.

But we have a peculiar set of circumstances. In the UK, growth is dead, confidence has disappeared. Here [in the US, where the interview was recorded] everyone’s talking really bullishly about what’s going to happen. Somehow Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer have just killed any economic optimism of any kind at all.

So, you could see a situation – we saw it with Liz Truss, actually, we saw what a run on the markets can do to governments, we saw it back at Suez. In the end, it was the markets that really brought Eden down more than anything else.

So, yeah, it’s possible. I wouldn’t put it at more than 20%, 25%, but it’s possible.

(In the transcript from 5 News it says “distrust”, not Liz Truss, but from the context it is obvious that Farage said Liz Truss. Maybe she will send another lawyer’s letter.)

Farage may be rating his chances of becoming PM within the next four years a bit high, but it would be foolish to think that it could not happen. Two leading political commentators have recently written long Substack articles explaining how it might. Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, wrote a post before Christmas headlined: Memo to Nigel – how you can become PM. After setting out a strategy for Farage, Kellner said it had “an outside chance of working – no more”. And Sam Freedman more recently wrote a post headlined: Will Reform kill the Tory party? Here is an extract from his conclusion.

For Reform to replace the Tories three things would need to happen. First they would need to sustain their current momentum well into 2025, then there would need to be a tipping point moment when donors, right-wing media and a number of Tory MPs decided to shift support en masse, and then they would have to win more seats in the 2028/2029 election.

The first of these seems fairly likely. The enthusiasm of Reform’s voter base, the weakness of the Tory party, and the media need for narrative all point the same way. The biggest barrier is probably Farage’s ability to manage the negative associations caused by Musk (who is not at all popular in the UK).

The second is much less likely and a prerequisite for the third. My guess is it would require another botched Tory leadership election that led to a major split in the parliamentary party and other supporters to collectively give up. We’re much closer to this scenario than at any point in history but it’s still hard to trigger, given historic and emotional attachments to the Conservative party.

But Freedman also argued that, under first past the post, two big parties with similar views could not survive alongside each other forever because “a ‘winner takes all’ system … will always end with one party being crushed or a merger”. He went on:

It may take a long time but if - and it is a big if - Reform remain a major player in British politics, under the voting system we have, it will ultimately lead to the end of the Tory party as we know it.

At the Covid inqiry Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has just started giving evidence. It is the fourth time he has given evidence, and this time the session will just focus on vaccines.

There is a live feed here.

I won’t be covering it minute by minute, but I will be posting highlights.

The government is developing artificial technology (AI) that will help ministers predict how parliament will react to policy proposals, Chris Smyth reports in a story for the Times.

The technology, known as Parlex, is designed to avoid catastrophic political rows by predicting how MPs will respond so that officials can come up with a “handling strategy” to get contentious laws through parliament …

The Parlex project is at an earlier stage, but is pitched by software developers as a tool that “allows users to forecast parliamentary reactions to proposed policies”. The software analyses Hansard, the official parliamentary record of debates, to offer “insights into how parliament might react to a new policy if it were debated tomorrow” …

A demonstration of the software showed a “parliamentary vibe check” on a potential law to introduce 20mph speed limits and low-traffic neighbourhoods. It showed that Labour MPs would be strongly in favour of such policies, while the Conservatives would be more divided.

Smyth says another project involves using AI to summarise the responses to government consultations, potentially saving up to £80m a year, because they won’t all have to be read by junior civil servants.

Starmer expected to meet Trump for talks 'within next few weeks', Lammy says

Keir Starmer is expected to travel to Washington “within the next few weeks” to meet President Trump, David Lammy, the foreign secretary, said today.

I think that when you look at past prime ministers, it’s taken between a week or up to a month to come to Washington. The importance is the strength of the relationship and the serious discussions that we have.

In the end, we have war in Europe, we have a ceasefire in the Middle East, but it’s incredibly fragile, and there are important malign actors like Iran that we’ve got to discuss with the United States and, of course, our growing trade relations with the United States.

So, lots to discuss, and I’m very confident that Keir Starmer will be discussing this with Donald Trump within the next few weeks.

When Trump was first elected president, Theresa May, who was then prime minister, became the first foreign leader to meet him in the White House, arriving a week after the inauguration.

This time government sources have briefed that Starmer is not competing to be the first foreign leader through the door – amid reports that the Trump administration is minded to make him wait anyway because Labour are not ideological allies.

Trump is 'misogynist, racist and fascist', and antidote is offering 'real hope for positive change', says Green party

The Green party has released a statement ahead of President Trump’s inauguration saying that he is a misogynist, racist and fascist, and that progressives should respond by offering “real hope for positive change”. Adrian Ramsay and Carla Denyer, the Green co-leaders, say in the statement:

We must stand up for peace and democracy in what will be a dangerous turn toward rightwing populism in the wake of Donald Trump taking office.

The antidote to Trump in the US, and the likes of Reform in the UK, is to offer people a real hope for real positive change that will transform their lives.

That means a new offer to people beaten down by decades of low wages, insecure work, decimated public services and a realisation that the impact of the climate crisis is all around us in the form of floods, wildfires and a devastating loss of nature.

We need the green investment to deliver the jobs of the future – well-paid, meaningful and secure – and we need the UK government to invest properly in schools and the NHS, and stand up for international law and human rights.

A greener future is a more just and fairer future.

The Green party is clear - President Trump is a misogynist, a racist, a convicted criminal and, we believe, a fascist.

We will be pressing the Labour government to recognise that to defeat fascism, political parties that believe in democratic values must work together to keep the flame of democracy alive and show people that democratic politics can deliver real change.

While Ed Davey says the inauguration of Donald Trump is “deeply worrying” for millions of people around the world (see 9.57am), a recent survey of global opinion for the European Council on Foreign Relations quoted by David Lammy this morning (see 9.35am), says millions of people around the world are also very positive about Trump. Here is one of the charts from the report showing this.

Timothy Garton Ash, one of the authors of the report, wrote a good column about it for the Guardian last week.

Most people in Washington have not woken up yet, but our US politics live blog covering the inauguration is already up and running, with Martin Belam at the helm.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey says Trump's inauguration 'deeply worrying for millions of people in UK and around world'

The Conservative party has become increasingly pro-Trump under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, and Priti Patel, the shadow foreign secretary, is in Washington for the inauguration. Over the weekend she posted his message on social media talking about the Tories’ and the Republicans’ “shared values”.

But the Liberal Democrats are not celebrating “shared values” with Trump. In a statement released overnight, Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, said Trump’s inauguration was “deeply worrying” for millions of people around the world.

Donald Trump returning to the White House will be deeply worrying for millions of people in the UK and around the world. With a President who promises trade wars, undermines NATO and praises Vladimir Putin, the threats to our national security and our economy are clear.

The UK must lead on the world stage again, standing up for our interests by working closely with other countries - above all our European neighbours.

While Nigel Farage toadies up to Donald Trump and Elon Musk in Washington, Liberal Democrats are working hard for our communities here in the UK. We will press the Government to be far more ambitious and positive in fixing our relationship with Europe, to strengthen Britain’s hand when it comes to dealing with Trump.

Starmer offers his 'warmest congratulations' to Trump on his inauguration

For the record, here is the statement Keir Starmer released overnight about President Trump’s inauguration.

On behalf of His Majesty’s government and the United Kingdom, I would like to send my warmest congratulations to President Donald Trump on his inauguration as the forty-seventh president of the United States.

For centuries, the relationship between our two nations has been one of collaboration, cooperation and enduring partnership. It is a uniquely close bond. Together, we have defended the world from tyranny and worked towards our mutual security and prosperity.

With President Trump’s longstanding affection and historical ties to the United Kingdom, I know that depth of friendship will continue. The United Kingdom and United States will work together to ensure the success of both our countries and deliver for people on both sides of the Atlantic.

Since our first meeting in September, the President and I have spoken about the need to deepen and invest in the transatlantic relationship. We will continue to build upon the unshakeable foundations of our historic alliance as we tackle together the global challenges we face and take our partnership to the next level focused on shared opportunities ahead for growth.

I look forward to our next meeting as we continue our shared mission to ensure the peace, prosperity and security of our two great nations. The special relationship between the United Kingdom and United States will continue to flourish for years to come.

US will want Chagos Islands deal reversed, Trump’s ex-national security adviser suggests

Good morning. Donald Trump becomes president of the United States for the second time today and in Westminster, as across the rest of the word, supporters are giddy with excitement, while opponents feel this is a moment for epoch-defining dread. Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader and Britain’s leading Trump evangelist, has got so carried away that he has told an interviewer he thinks there is a 20/25% chance that he could be prime minister by the time Trump leaves office (January 2029). It’s not impossible; but few other people would put his chances as high as one in four.

Most people in Labour politics, privately at least, regard Trump with horror, but the government has to work with him and Keir Starmer, who has invested a lot of effort in trying to establish a decent personal relationship with the new president, has issued a statement sending Trump his “warmest congratulations” on his inauguration. David Lammy, the foreign secretary, was on the Today programme this morning and, when asked if he he had changed his mind about Trump since the days when he used to denounce him in the strongest possible terms, he said his approach to foreign policy was grounded in “progressive realism”, taking the world as it is. He went on to praise the Trump he met when he and Starmer had dinner with him in New York in September last year.

The Donald Trump I met … had incredible grace, generosity, very keen to be a good host, very funny, very, very, very friendly, very warm, I have to say, about the UK, our royal family, Scotland, his relationship with Scotland, his mother. That was the Donald Trump I found.

There was a survey this week – 70% of the world welcomed Donald Trump coming to power, 70% of the world, much of that worried about authoritarian actors, actually quite like the fact that Donald Trump keeps them guessing.

And we have to reckon with the fact 70 million Americans voted for him, [his vote share] up in African Americans communities voting for him, up in Latinos, up in young people. We have to reckon with that truth.

But Lammy was confronted with a more awkward truth about Trump when the presenter, Nick Robinson, reminded him what Lt Gen HR McMaster told the programme about Trump and the UK’s Chagos Islands deal. McMaster, who was national security adviser for Trump for about a year early in his first term, said the British deal to transfer sovereignty to Mauritius would have to be renegotiated because of its impact on the UK/US airbase at Diego Garcia. He said:

I think surrendering the Chagos Islands, or putting the Chagos Islands in a situation where they can easily be coerced, by the Chinese Communist Party for example, I hope it’s a position that we see reversed here by Donald Trump, and by the UK government.

Farage has repeatedly claimed, based on his contacts with them, that the incoming Trump administration is unhappy about the Chagos Islands deal, but few people who are part of Trump’s team have said that on the record. McMaster is not joining the incoming administration, but his comments suggests Trump will want a rethink.

Asked about McMaster’s claim, Lammy said the last government opened talks with Mauritius about transferring sovereignty because legal rulings meant it was getting harder and harder for the UK to maintain the status quo. He went on:

The Pentagon, the State Department and the White House under the last administration pored through this deal. There was an interagency process, [they] said it was a good deal. It’s right and proper that the new administration is able to consider it.

But having gone through the deal in detail, it’s the right deal to keep the global community safe, and I emphasise the importance of that military base and those assets on Diego Garcia that we’ve been working together with with the United States now for all of my lifetime.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry in its module covering vaccines. In the afternoon Prof Sir Jonathan Van-Tam, the former deputy CMO, and Prof Dame Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, give evidence.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

2.30pm: Angela Rayner, the deputy PM and housing secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.

If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.

I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

Updated

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