Closing post
Time to wrap up:
Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic trade war has triggered a slump in shipments to the US’s most important ports, amid the growing risk of a recession in the world’s largest economy.
In the latest sign of the US president’s tariff policies rattling the economy, figures show the number of vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles next week is down by almost a third on the same period a year earlier.
According to the data compiled from ocean carrier manifest records by Port Optimizer, the number of arrivals this week is on track to be down by about 11% on the same week last year. Separate figures reported by the Financial Times from Vizion, a data provider, show container bookings from China to the US fell 45% by mid-April compared with a year earlier.
Asset manager Apollo Global warned that the US trade with China was weakening, as America suffers a ‘stagflation shock’.
Marks & Spencer has told hundreds of workers at its main online distribution centre in Leicestershire to stay at home as website orders remain on hold for the fourth day in a row.
The retailer, which is battling the consequences of a cyber-attack that began a week ago and has affected stores as well as its online business, told 200 agency staff at the Castle Donington site they were not currently required.
The move, first reported by Sky News, came after it halted all orders through its website and apps on Friday. The company has apologised to shoppers for “this inconvenience”, which will hit its online clothing and homeware sales, which amount to almost £3.8m a day on average.
Shares in M&S fell over 2% at one stage, and have closed down 0.6%.
The UK economy is set to slow sharply for the next two years as Donald Trump’s global tariff war weighs on consumer spending and business investment, a study by a leading forecaster has predicted.
Manufacturing businesses in Texas have reported a slump in activity this month, as Trump’s tariffs caused economic disruption.
Shares in Deliveroo have risen by 17% as investors reacted to a $3.6bn (£2.7bn) takeover offer by the rival food delivery app DoorDash that could net its founder more than £170m.
The EU’s strategy to secure its own supply of microchips is “deeply disconnected from reality”, a damning report by the official European court of auditors (ECA) has found.
Updated
FTSE 100 posts 11th daily rise in a row
Britain’s blue-chip share index had matched its best run of daily gains in eight years – just!
The FTSE 100 ebbed in late trading, perhaps hurt by that weak economic data from the US. But it ended the day in positive territory, up 2 points or 0.02% at 8417 points.
That means the FTSE 100 has risen for the last 11 days trading, matching the 11-day run recorded in December 2019. It hasn’t had a longer stretch since January 2017, when the index posted a 14-day rally.
The FTSE 100 hasn’t recovered all its trade war losses, though – it had been trading over 8,600 points before Donald Trump announced his new tariffs on US trading partners at the start of April.
Stocks have been rising as Trump backed away from a trade war, by pausing most of those tariffs for 90 days.
Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, points out that the FTSE 100 has “defensive characteristics” – many of its members are decent dividend payers.
But, he adds:
Markets appear way too complacent at this stage – tariffs are on pause, not cancelled. Markets are behaving like the latter. Certainly the direction of travel can be ascertained ‘at the moment’, but we don’t what happens next. Because this is not a game of chicken that Trump is losing right now.
The early Wall Street rally has rather fizzled out, after investors learned of the downturn in Texas’s manufacturing sector this month.
The Dow Jones industrial average is now flat, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has now dropped by 1%.
Here’s some snap reation to the poor Dalles Fed manufacturing report:
Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook dropped to its lowest level since May 2020. New Orders (green) declined while Prices Paid (blue) and Prices Received (red) rose. pic.twitter.com/USkCd68Pwm
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) April 28, 2025
Since the market top in 2007 we really have not had a very good business environment long term. Here is the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Level of General Business Activity. It is the worst since COVID. #investing pic.twitter.com/ZH0syUb9Yc
— Kapitalyst (@TheKapitalyst) April 28, 2025
Texas manufacturing activity slumps as firms blame tariffs
Just in: manufacturing activity in Texas has plunged at the fastest rate since the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic five years ago.
Company bosses in the region are warning that Donald Trump’s trade war is hurting their businesses, with
That’s according to the latest Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. It has found that business conditions worsened in April, with a measure of general business activity index falling to its lowest reading since May 2020.
A gauge of economic uncertainty jumped, as bosses’ view of the economic outlook also fell to a postpandemic low.
An index of new orders plummeted, while an index of shipments index fell into negative territory for the first time this year.
Pretty horrible Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. Level hits the lowest since May 2020. All the comments are about tariffs and policy uncertainty. Add it to the list of bad soft/survey data. pic.twitter.com/PQByWPIFPi
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 28, 2025
Helpfully, the Dallas Fed also released comments from survey respondents.
One chemicals manufacturing firm said:
“Tariff uncertainty and actual impact is likely to be significant for the business and ongoing projects”.
A computer and electronics manufacturer also warned about the economic damage of a trade war, saying:
There is really no way to predict anything accurately six months out or even six weeks out now for our industry due to the tariff and trade uncertainty. Carve-outs for large electronics businesses (cellphones and laptops) leaves small business burdened to deal with tariffs on our own, which are likely to cause delays, cancellations and early product obsolescence on existing products and orders.
We have already had to turn around and refuse shipments because customers cannot afford the tariffs, delaying our ability to build, which will eventually lead to job losses. If this continues for any length of time, many small companies are likely to be significantly hurt or even gone. If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get the chance?
Maybe we can think about using a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer? The risk we face now is far greater and less understood than what we saw during the COVID shutdown. Consumers and businesses will limit investment and orders until there is some sense of stability, and we have already experienced this with smaller orders and delayed orders. It’s chaos right now.
Food manufacturers also criticised trade uncertainty, with one saying:
Tariffs and tariff uncertainty are wreaking havoc on our supply lines and capital spending plans.
Travel companies are among the top risers on the S&P 500 in early trading, with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings up 3.5%, and Southwest Airlines gaining 2,8%.
Wall Street opens higher
The New York stock market has begun the week with some small gains.
The Dow Jones industrial average has risen by 184 points, or 0.5%, to 40,297 points. The broader S&P 500 has gained a more modest 0.1%.
Despite its recent recovery, the Dow is still down 3% over the last month.
But even so, only Richard M. Nixon’s second term has offered a worse return from US equities, 100 days in, than Donald Trump’s second stint
That’s according to AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould, who explains:
As President Trump approaches 100 days in office, an 11% rally in America’s S&P 500 index from its closing low on 8 April may just stop his second term in office from offering investors the worst start of any post-war American leader, in terms of stock market returns.
“The S&P 500 is down by 7.9% since Trump’s inauguration on 20 January and only Richard M. Nixon’s second term offered a tougher start for investors, as the index fell by 9.9% in the first 100 days of his second term back in 1973.”
“The rough start to Trump’s second presidency, so far as share prices and the dollar is concerned, represents a remarkable shift in sentiment, given the rapturous welcome given to Trump’s election victory last November, when the S&P 500 (and the greenback) soared, while US Treasury yields remained stable.
“The imposition of blanket tariffs, an escalation of tensions with China and then a flurry of sidesteps and backtracks, as additional reciprocal levies are delayed, exemptions are provided for technology hardware and tentative olive branches are offered to Beijing leave everyone confused and seem to be shaking markets’ prior strong faith in American exceptionalism.
Updated
Despite all the anxiety about the economic damage of the US trade war, European markets are higher today.
In London, the FTSE 100 index is now up 30 points or 0.36% at 8445 points, on track for its highest close in over three weeks.
Germany’s DAX is 0.7% higher, while France’s CAC 40 index is up 1%.
In Madrid, the stock market is still operating despite the massive power outage hitting Spain, and Portugal, with the Spanish IBEX up 0.6%.
Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, says markets are in limbo:
“Investors are stuck in an uneasy place between optimism about the so-called Trump put and anxiety about what looks like an increasingly likely economic slowdown or recession.
“The Trump put refers to the idea that there is a point at which the US President will respond to market weakness and reverse trade and tariff measures. Sharp rallies in both bond and equity markets in the past couple of weeks suggest that this put exists and that it will kick in at close to the recent market lows.
“That’s the optimistic argument. It is supported by still reasonable earnings growth expectations (albeit slowing in future quarters) and valuations which have fallen from their recent highs.
“The earnings picture will become clearer this week as a swathe of results emerge across a range of key sectors. Most important of all will be tech stock results from Meta, Microsoft and Amazon. At the same time, valuations of those Magnificent Seven shares have come back from elevated levels to more reasonable multiples. The Mag Seven as a whole is now priced at 25 times expected profits, compared with 40 only a few months ago.
Germany's Merz: Will suggest to US that all tariffs are zeroed
Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has declared today that he will urge Donald Trump to “go to zero” on all tariffs.
Merz declared:
“We will offer the United States of America that it would be best if we go to zero for all customs duties in the mutual exchange of goods.”
He also suggested “the mutual recognition of technological standards” between Germany and the US, explaining:
“What we have seen in recent years and decades are increasingly divergent technical barriers between the individual major trading nations of the world, which we must overcome, and this can also contribute to the sustainable reduction of bureaucracy.”
Merz also announced some early cabinet picks – utility executive Katherina Reiche was named as his likely economy minister, and foreign policy expert Johann Wadephul, a former soldier and trained lawyer, gets the nod as foreign minister.
M&S have confirmed that agency staff at its Castle Donington clothing and homewares logistics centre in the East Midlands were told not to come in today.
Workers employed by M&S at the site are still working, PA Media reports.
The retailer’s stores are still open and operating, and shoppers are still able to browse its website and app.
Contactless payments are also back online in stores after these were originally impacted by the cyber issue.
The company has taken action to protect its network and has also reported the incident to data protection supervisory authorities and the National Cyber Security Centre.
Channel 4 chief executive Alex Mahon to step down after nearly eight years
The chief executive of Channel 4, Alex Mahon, is to step down after eight years and will leave the broadcaster in the summer.
During her tenure Mahon, who joined in 2017 as the first female CEO in the broadcaster’s four-decade history, helped fight off two attempts to privatise Channel 4.
The 51-year-old, who faced criticism when she took home the biggest pay packet of any chief executive in Channel 4 history, will be replaced on an interim basis by the chief operating officer, Jonathan Allan.
“She has been one of the most impactful chief executives since Jeremy Isaacs’ founding of Channel 4 more than 42 years ago,” said Dawn Airey, interim chair at the broadcaster.
Fast food chain Domino’s Pizza has reported a drop in US sales in the last quarter – a potentially worrying sign for the economy.
Like-for-like store sales at Domino’s US outlets fell by 0.5% in the first three months of this year, the company reports, taking the shine off a 3.7% rise in international same store sales growth.
Investec analyst Kate Calvert has pointed out that the longer it takes for online sales to resume, the worse the hit would be for M&S.
She says:
“There will be a short-term profit impact without a doubt.”
The gold price is slipping away from its recent record high today.
Bullion is down 0.85% at $3,290 per ounce, as investors favour riskier assets.
Last Tuesday gold hit a new alltime high of $3,500 per ounce, but has eased back since as trade war anxiety in the markets has eased (despite signs that the conflict is causing economic harm).
Achilleas Georgolopoulos, senior market analyst at Trading Point, says:
It is a rather steady start to the trading week, as market participants are mostly preparing for what lies ahead. Risk appetite appears to be on the mend though, with US equity indices experiencing a rather positive performance last week and the US dollar erasing its early-week losses. The Nasdaq led the rally on the back of commentary, and partly wishful thinking, that the US-China trade war might gradually de-escalate, with technology products being the first beneficiaries of a lower tariff regime.
The path, of course, towards a US-China agreement will not be straightforward, despite some positive commentary from both sides, mostly from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Both governments are unwilling to make the first significant step and open the door to proper negotiations, as such a move might be seen as a sign of weakness, a perception President Trump is unlikely to accept.
UK retailers have reported that sales volumes fell for the seventh month running in April, according to the CBI’s latest Distributive Trades report.
A net balance of -8% of retailers reported that sales volumes fell this month, rather thn rising – an improvement on the -41% balance reported in March.
However, retailers expect sales to fall at a quicker pace next month.
Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the CBI, blames the tax rises announced in last year’s budget, which came into effect this month, saying:
“Annual retail sales volumes fell more slowly in April, but firms remain pessimistic about the outlook due to the impact of Autumn Budget measures, persistently weak consumer sentiment, and global economic uncertainty.
These themes were echoed in the wholesale sector, which reported one of the sharpest sales declines in the past four years.
The CBI’s survey paints a more downbeat picture than the official retail sales report from the Office for National Statistics, which shows that sales rose in the first quarter of this year (on a seasonally-adjusted basis….)
Global economy recession risks surge on US tariff shockwaves
Oof! There’s a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.
Asked about the risk of a global recession this year, a 60% majority - 101 of 167 - said it was high or very high. Sixty-six said low including four who said very low.
Many of the economists polled by Reuters also believe that Donald Trump’s tariffs have damaged business sentiment.
Reuters explains:
Showing an uncommon unanimity, none of the more than 300 economists polled April 1-28 said tariffs had a positive impact on business sentiment, with 92% saying negative. Only 8% said neutral, mostly from India and other emerging economies.
China's foreign ministry says Xi and Trump have not spoken recently
Back in Beijing, China’s foreign ministry has said President Xi Jinping had not spoken to Donald Trump.
The ministry also denied that the two administrations are in talks to strike a tariff deal, which contradicts a claim from Trump last week.
Guo Jiakun, a ministry spokesperson, told a press conference:
“As far as I know, the two heads of state have not called each other recently,
“I would like to reiterate that China and the U.S. have not conducted consultations or negotiations on the tariffs issue.
“If the U.S. really wants to solve the problem through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and blackmailing (China).”
Last Friday, Time Magazine reported that Trump had told them last week that his administration is talking with China to strike a tariff deal and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him.
M&S 'tells hundreds of agency staff not to come to work'
Sky News are reporting that hundreds of agency staff at Marks & Spencer’s main clothing and home warehouse in the East Midlands have been told not to come in.
That highlights the disruption being cause by the huge M&S cyber-attack, which has led to the suspension of online orders last week.
Exclusive: Marks & Spencer has told hundreds of agency workers at its huge Castle Donington distribution centre in the East Midlands not to come into work as Britain's best-known retailer grapples with the unfolding impact of a major cyberattack. https://t.co/hBK3eUvbiU
— Mark Kleinman (@MarkKleinmanSky) April 28, 2025
Updated
Goldman Sachs: equities are in a bear market
Goldman Sachs analysts remain cautious about the outlook for shares, though.
In a new research note today, Goldman say they “continue to see equities as in a bear market”, due to the likelihood of elevated trade uncertainty and weaker economic activity.
The equity market is currently pricing a growth outlook above Goldman economists’ baseline forecast, they say, citing the recovery in the pan-European Stoxx 600 index:
Despite the uncertainty, the STOXX 600 is up 3% year-to-date, having rebounded by 11% from its recent trough. Looking at the performance of Cyclicals versus Defensives, we find that the European equity market is currently pricing Euro area GDP growth of approximately 1.5%.
This is higher than our economists’ forecast for Euro area real GDP growth of 0.7% in 2025.
FTSE 100 on track for 11th rise in a row
Britain’s stock market is on track to match its longest run of gains in eight years.
The FTSE 100 index has risen by 20 points, or 0.25%, in early trading to 8436 points. That puts the blue-chip shares index on track for its 11th daily rise in a row, a record last set in December 2019 after Boris Johnson’s election win.
The FTSE 100 last set a longer winning run from late-December 2016 to mid-January 2017, when it rose for 14 days on the trot.
The recovery over the last few weeks has been helped by the US pausing many of its tariffs on trading partners (tho not China)
These recent gains have not fully recovered the losses after Donald Trump’s announcement of new global tariffs, though, as this chart shows:
For April as a whole, the FTSE 100 is still down 1.7%.
Updated
M&S shares drop again as cyber disruption continues
Marks & Spencer are leading the FTSE 100 fallers this morning, as it reels from the damage caused by a cyber-attack.
Shares in M&S are down 2.3% this morning at 376p, as traders digest the ongoing disruption at the company.
On Friday it halted all orders through its website and apps, and encouraged customers to visit its stores instead.
The cyber incident began a week ago, on Easter Monday, affecting contactless payments and click-and-collect orders in stores across the UK. M&S disclosed it on Tuesday, saying a “cyber incident” affected contactless payments and the pick up of online orders in its stores in recent days.
Shares in M&S have dropped by over 8% since then, having closed at 411p before Easter.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, says the ongoing problems underline how difficult the breach has been to get a handle on.
Streeter points out that the suspension of online orders will be hugely damaging for sales, adding:
Marks and Spencer’s recent run of success has been partly down to how it been so efficient at managing its multi-channel operations with click and collect services particularly popular.
It’s been reducing its store footprint focusing on smaller food stores where customers can swing buy and pick up products bought online. This ease of shopping and delivery has been upended. Even though stores are open, many simply don’t stock the popular ranges from online.
Fashion sales are likely to take a big hit particularly as the attack has come during the spell of warm weather when summer ranges would ordinarily be piling up in virtual baskets. While other retailers have not been immune to IT breaches, the depth of Marks and Spencer’s problems in resolving the issue are worrying, and it may take some time to win back some more warier shoppers.
Updated
Deliveroo shares jump 17% after DoorDash takeover approach
Shares in food delivery group Deliveroo have jumped by 17% at the start of trading in London, after receiving a takeover approach from US rival DoorDash.
On Friday night, the news broke that DoorDash had offered to buy Deliveroo for $3.6bn (£2.7bn).
Deliveroo said that received an indicative proposal from DoorDash for a possible cash offer worth 180p per share, and that it would be “minded to recommend such an offer to Deliveroo shareholders”.
Its shares have jumped to 170p this morning….
This morning, Deliveroo also announced that it has suspended its £100m share buyback programme, due to the approach from DoorDash.
DoorDash’s interest comes four years after Deliveroo floated on the London stock market, in what has been called the City’s worst IPO ever.
Deliveroo’s shares were priced at 390p each, but slumped by a quarter on the first day of trading – causing the firm to be dubbed “Flopperoo”.
The Times points out today that if the DoorDash deal goes through at 180p, Deliveroo founder Will Shu would receive a payout of more than £172m, based upon his 5.9% stake
UK growth forecast to slow sharply as Trump tariffs hit economy
The UK economy is set to slow sharply for the next two years as Donald Trump’s global tariff war weighs on consumer spending and business investment, a study by a leading forecaster has predicted.
The EY Item Club is now forecasting that UK gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 0.8% this year, down from a projection of 1% in February, and has cut its 2026 forecast from 1.6% to 0.9% as longer-term effects hit the UK.
Bloomberg: Shein hikes US prices by up to 377%
American customers of fast-fashion giant Shein are now feeling the impact of the trade war.
Shein raised the US prices of a swathe of products on Friday, Bloomberg reported, in anticipation of new tariffs on small parcels.
Over to Bloomberg for the details:
The average price for the top 100 products in the beauty and health category increased by 51% from Thursday, with several of the items more than doubling in price.
For home and kitchen products and toys, the average jump was more than 30%, led by a massive 377% increase in the price of a 10-piece set of kitchen towels. For women’s clothing the rise was 8%.
This follows Donald Trump’s decision to end the “de minimis” exemption for small packages from mainland China and Hong Kong. which had meant that packages under $800 did not qualify for any taxes or tariffs.
China confident of achieving 2025 growth target, says state planner
China’s policymakers are insisting today that they will hit this year’s growth targets, despite the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The vice head of China’s state planner said on Monday he was “fully confident” that the world’s second-largest economy would achieve its economic growth target of around 5% for 2025.
Zhao Chenxin, vice chair of the National Development and Reform Commission, told a press conference that new policies will be rolled out over the second quarter, based on changes in the economic situation.
Zhao said:
“The achievements of the first quarter have laid a solid foundation for the economic development of the whole year.
No matter how the international situation changes, we will anchor our development goals, maintain strategic focus and concentrate on doing our own thing.”
Introduction: US trade with China weakening
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Donald Trump’s trade war is weakening the US economy and causing a plunge in trade with China, economists and logistics firms are warning.
Nearly four week’s after Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of higher tariffs triggered a trade war with Beijing, evidence is mounting that businesses and consumers are cutting back.
Torsten Sløk, chief executive at asset manager Apollo Global Management, explains:
For companies, new orders are falling, capex plans are declining, inventories were rising before tariffs took effect, and firms are revising down earnings expectations.
For households, consumer confidence is at record-low levels, consumers were front-loading purchases before tariffs began, and tourism is slowing, in particular international travel.
Sløk has pulled together a chartbook highlighting the damage to company earnings…
…on new orders…
…and notably on trade with China.
A trade war is a “stagflation shock”, Sløk fears.
He explains that it typically takes between 20 and 40 days for a sea container to travel from China to the US. That means that the slowdown in container departures from China to the US which started in early April will be felt at US ports in early and mid-May.
That would hit demand for trucking from mid-May, leading to empty shelves and layoffs in trucking and retail industry, causing what Sløk dubs “The Voluntary Trade Reset Recession”.
Sløk warned on Friday:
In May, we will begin to see significant layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail — particularly in small businesses such as your independent toy store, your independent hardware store, and your independent men’s clothing store.
With 9 million people working in trucking-related jobs and 16 million people working in the retail sector, the downside risks to the economy are significant.
There are signs today that this trade slowdown is underway, due to the 145% tariff imposed on Chinese imports to the US.
The Financial Times reports this morning that the Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting 4 May to be a third lower than a year before.
The new higher tariffs announced on other countries are currently paused, of course, while the US negotiates new trade deals.
Trump has claimed to Time Magazine that he’s made 200 deals. But this appears to be, well, an exaggeration.
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told ABC News he believes Trump is “referring to sub deals within the negotiations we’re doing.”
Bessent insisted, though, that progress is being made, arguing:
If there are 180 countries, there are 18 important trading partners, let’s put China to the side, because that’s a special negotiation, there’s 17 important trading partners, and we have a process in place, over the next 90 days, to negotiate with them. Some of those are moving along very well, especially with the Asian countries.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended President Donald Trump’s negotiating strategy on trade deals but said he didn't know whether Trump was speaking directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping. https://t.co/kOqQ2STvOf
— ABC News (@ABC) April 27, 2025
Last week, shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd reported that its customers have cancelled 30% of shipments to the United States from China….and there has been a “massive increase” in demand for consignments from Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam instead.
The agenda
11am BST: CBI’s distributive trades survey of UK retailing
11am BST: France’s unemployment data for March
3.30pm BST: Dallas Fed manufacturing index for April
Updated
