Australians are increasingly avoiding travel to the US under Donald Trump’s second presidency, fresh data shows, with forecasters expecting tourist numbers to plummet further throughout the year.
Official statistics from the US International Trade Administration reveal the number of visitors from Australia in March 2025 was down by 7% compared with March 2024 – a reduction of 4,559 people.
This is the largest decline since March 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic was disrupting international travel.
The figures – which count any visit of one or more nights – also show sharp drops in visitors from Europe and other areas, as countries updated their travel advice for the US. Overseas arrivals to the US from all origins dropped 11.6% in March, the government data showed.
The downturn in travel following Trump’s inauguration exceeded even the global tourism industry’s worst case predictions, according to travel analytics group Tourism Economics.
Aside from the long-term weakness in the Australian dollar meaning more expensive holidays, a string of incidents with US border protocols since January may have left some reconsidering their destination.
Guardian Australia last week reported the case of an Australian man with a working visa who was detained and deported on returning to the US. The man alleged border officials called him “retarded” and boasted “Trump is back in town”.
Meanwhile, an award-winning Australian comedian cancelled a planned trip to the US after receiving legal advice that she could be stopped at the border due to her previous jokes about the Trump administration.
The incidents have prompted unease among Australian academics, many of whom are now refusing to attend US conferences for fear of being detained.
Gender-diverse Australians have also been warned they may face visa delays following Trump’s executive order on gender.
James Kavanagh, Flight Centre’s chief executive of leisure travel, said that while the US has long been a firm favourite for Australian travellers, “we must acknowledge the political environment in the US and the fact that it may influence Australians’ decisions on where they choose to travel”.
“For example, looking at the first quarter of 2024 [compared with 2025], while we’ve seen a slight decline in bookings to the USA, we’ve seen a significant uplift in bookings to east Asia and northern Europe,” he said.
Melissa Elf, global chief operating officer of Flight Centre’s corporate wing, said that while bookings from Australian business travellers had so far remained “resilient”, the introduction of tariffs could see businesses look away from the US and to places such as “Asia and the Middle East”.
“It’s a very different landscape today compared to what it was at the beginning of the year, and we are conscious that major changes that have occurred in the US, and tariffs that are being applied to Australian companies may see corporates prioritise business and trade with other nations,” she said.
“We’re also seeing an interesting change in the businesses travelling to the US out of Australia. Last year, [the] mining, IT and education sectors led corporate travel to the USA, but this year, it’s being led by education, government and mining. Again, this just shows how different sectors will prioritise different nations for business, based on where the opportunity lies.”
Tourism Economics also named Trump’s influence as damaging the US as a destination. “Policies and pronouncements from the Trump administration have contributed to a growing wave of negative sentiment toward the US among potential international travellers,” it said in a briefing issued on Friday.
“Heightened border security measures and visible immigration enforcement actions are amplifying concerns.”
While the decline in tourist arrivals in March was strongest from Canada, at more than 20%, and western Europe, with countries such as Germany recording an almost 30% drop – Oceania (of which Australia is the largest market) is part of the trend, the agency said.
It predicts a 9.4% drop in all inbound international tourism over the course of 2025, but noted this could grow with further volatility from the Trump administration.
“These sentiment shifts represent a backlash to trade policies and other pronouncements that target individual countries – including country leaders, national industries, and citizens – in ways that elicit strong responses,” an earlier April briefing said.
“Trump administration shifts on Ukraine and longstanding alliances, and domestic issues – such as the treatment of certain categories of individuals – are also contributing to the sentiment shift, casting the US in a new, less favourable light for many potential travellers. Leisure travelers, as well as business event organizers and participants, are expected to shift away from the US in response.”
But there may be one silver lining to the traveller reticence – Kavanagh says airline capacity between the US and Australia has increased in recent months, which likely means lower airfares.
Air France and KLM are among European carriers to cut air fares to the US to fill seats on their planned capacities this year.
