It's Day Four of the travelling Herman Cain sexual harassment presidential campaign and circus – with no end in sight.
As at least one of Cain's former employees prepares to go public, the Cain campaign remains mired, seemingly unable to respond to questions about what may or may not have happened. To make matters worse it has started trying to shift the attention to the source of the revelations that Cain harassed at least two female employees while head of the National Restaurant Association.
Yesterday evening the Cain campaign was liberally sharing the blame onto the Rick Perry campaign and – more unusually – Rahm Emanuel, the mayor of Chicago, both without evidence.
In today's developments: one of the accusers may make a public statement while retaining her anonymity, with her lawyer currnetly in negotiations with the National Restaurant Association over the legal issues.
And Herman Cain's wife Gloria is being pushed into the limelight and is said to be doing a media appearance in support of her husband.
And if the last three days are anything to go by, there will be plenty more where that came from.
Amongst all the blame and the drip-drip of alegations, we still don't know what it is that Herman Cain is supposed to have done. The New York Times tries to get at the subject:
The intensifying questions were putting Mr Cain's tenure at the National Restaurant Association under a microscope, and interviews with several former employees painted a picture of a chief executive who was always game to socialize with his staff. Living away from his family while working at the association headquarters in Washington, he was as ready to go out after work as were many of the younger, single employees, similarly free from family obligations, several former staff members said.
The gatherings had a mix of restaurant industry bravado, innuendo and joking, these people said, and Mr Cain joined right in, setting the scene for at least one of the accusations of inappropriate conduct, people familiar with the incident said, but also for other interactions that left staff members wondering whether he had crossed a line.
The best analysis I've read so far on the subject of Herman Cain comes from Iowa – a crucial state as the venue of the first Republican election contest – and Des Moines Register columnist Kathie Obradovich:
Turning to Cain's self-proclaimed "sense of humour," Obradovich observes:
Most women recognize the type of guy who makes borderline remarks as a way of testing the waters. It's always a joke – unless it happens to spark some interest. If a lady is offended, she's a humorless prude. It's like when comedian Stephen Colbert endorsed Cain, "unless you're not into him, in which case, I'm just joking." Cain may have done nothing wrong , and Iowa caucusgoers so far seem willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But if he's the brilliant businessman he claims to be, he should have known that remarks of a personal nature can be damaging in the workplace. Even a dozen years ago, employers were training managers to avoid becoming targets for harassment lawsuits.
She ends with a withering last line: "Telling voters they can't take a joke is a fast way to become a punchline."
Perhaps the dumbest moment in the whole Herman Cain business to date – apart from Cain's bizarre string of non-denials and evasions – appeared in a Washington Times blog item:
According to a source who is friends with the Cain campaign, not only is the Rick Perry campaign involved but also the Mayor of Chicago and former Obama White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is likely involved with the sexual harassment accuser attacks. A friend of the Cain campaign believes a National Restaurant Association (NRA) employee out of the Chicago office leaked the story to the Perry campaign via information and influence from Mayor Rahm Emanuel's office.
Rahm Emanuel and Rick Perry? Right.
For those keeping score, here's a list of those currently being blamed by the Cain campaign for the sexual harassment allegations surfacing:
Rick Perry
Lee "Scratch" Perry
Lee Harvey Oswald
Roy Oswalt
Rahm Emanuel
Ramen Noodles
Panda Express
Communist China
Obviously there may be more names to come but that's enough to be getting on with.
One of the women who has accused Herman Cain of harassment has drafted a statement to be released publicly, her lawyer tells the Los Angeles Times today:
I will be e-mailing a draft public statement to the National Restaurant Association's attorney this morning," Bennett said in an email to the Los Angeles Times Thursday morning."I will be asking the association to allow us to release the public statement without violating the confidentiality and non-disparagement provisions of the 1999 settlement agreement.
Update: the association says it will be responding tomorrow.
Why is Herman Cain trying to blame Rick Perry's campaign for being the source of the stories about Cain's past? Well, the Texas governor obviously has a motive – in the sense that he's a political rival. And Perry has a long hiostory of playing rough.
Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News looks for clues:
Whatever the truth, the scandal offers a fresh opportunity to examine how the game is played in American politics - and the past practices of some of the current players. Perry has a history of hardball politics. In 2002, he accused his Democratic opponent in an ad of complicity in the murder of two federal drug agents and of knowingly laundering drug money through his South Texas bank. It wasn't true, but the ad certainly had impact.
The Cain business will sadly overshadow this reporting by the Washington Post – revising a 2007 article by the Los Angeles Times – on Mitt Romney and a particularly egregious case of flip-flopping by the slippery fellow:
Mitt Romney was firm and direct with the abortion rights advocates sitting in his office nine years ago, assuring the group that if elected Massachusetts governor, he would protect the state's abortion laws.
Then, as the meeting drew to a close, the businessman offered an intriguing suggestion — that he would rise to national prominence in the Republican Party as a victor in a liberal state and could use his influence to soften the GOP's hard-line opposition to abortion.
In other years, the news that a Republican presidential hopeful had touted himself as being a liberal pro-choice sleeper agent would probably be enough to derail his candidacy. But not this year, it seems.
An early candidate for chutzpah-laden quote of the week comes in this response from the Romney campaign: "People's memories change with time, and change depending on which way the political winds are blowing."
Possible explanation for Herman Cain's sudden surge in the opinion polls? Conservatives thought he was president of this NRA rather than that NRA.
Is Obama going to be a one-term president? The New York Times's polling guru Nate Silver has just published a very long analysis of the 2012 presidential election. He estimates that facing Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee with a stagnant economy, Obama has a mere 17% chance of winning re-election.
There are other, more rosy prospects for the Democrats. But here's Silver's bottom line:
With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama's position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.
The NYT also has a fantastic election calculator showing the chances of victory for each of the Republican candidates depending on the state of the economy and Obama's approval rating. It also shows Jon Huntsman having easily the best chance of beating Obama in a general election. Sadly Huntsman has almost zero chance of winning the Republican nomination.
Herman Cain has caught a lot of flak for his assertion that China is "trying to develop nuclear capability" when in fact it has had nukes since 1964.
But just as silly were his earlier remarks in the same interview:
My China strategy is quite simply outgrow China. It gets back to economics. China has a $6 trillion economy and they're growing at approximately 10 percent. We have a $14 trillion economy – much bigger – but we're growing at an anemic 1.5, 1.6 percent. When we get our economy growing back at the rate of 5 or 6 percent that it has the ability to do, we will outgrow China.
Cain often mentions that he has a mathematics degree. But the finer details of compound interest have escaped him here.
If China, starting with a $6tn economy, grows at 10% a year, while the US, with a $14tn economy, grows at 5% a year, then on the back of an envelope it would seem that China would overtake the US in a little over 18 years from now, or 2029.
[$14tn compounded by 5% over 18 years = $33.6tn. And $6tn compounded by 10% over 18 years = $33.4tn]
Pajamas Media, a conservative blogging network, claims to have further details of one of the incidents involving Cain:
Adding to the ongoing Herman Cain sexual harassment controversy, two sources have now confirmed to PJ Media that a female employee of the National Restaurant Association told associates she had been brought by Mr Cain to his Crystal City, Virginia residence where she alleged "he had taken advantage of me."
The New Yorker's Ryan Lizza puts his Twitter-finger on the fatal weakness with the whole "blame Rick Perry" argument:
Problem with theory of Perry campaign orchestrating Cain smear is that the Perry campaign has been unable to orchestrate ANYTHING so far.
One of the two women employees who accused Herman Cain of harassment received a payout of $45,000 from the National Restaurant Association, Politico is reporting:
Politico has learned that one of the women who accused Herman Cain of sexual harassment at the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s received a payout of about $45,000 as part of her settlement – significantly more than the two or three months' salary Cain initially recalled the woman obtained.
The woman who received the approximately $45,000 is the staffer who Cain has acknowledged formally lodged a complaint about his behavior.
Earlier the New York Times reported that the other woman had received $35,000 in settlement from the association.
The two sums contradict Cain's hazy public recollections – and Cain has so far only acknowledged one payment.
In perhaps the least surprising event of the day, the Cain campaign has now hastily backtracked from its claim that the Perry campaign's Curt Anderson was behind the accusations against Cain coming to light.
Mark Block, Cain's campaign manager and smoker, told Fox News (via GOP 12):
Until we get all the facts, I'm just going to say that we accept what Mr Anderson has said, and we want to move on with the campaign.
Another genius move there by the Cain campaign.
RedState's Erick Erickson has already made his feelings known about this:
If I were allowed to use the word retarded these days, I'd use it to describe the Herman Cain campaign these days. But it is another word we've axed on the list for some legitimate reasons. Truth be told, I sometimes still use it and I think it might fit here.
Finally some polling done since the Cain allegations came to light. Rasmussen had a poll in the field yesterday:
Two-thirds of America's voters recognize that Herman Cain is the Republican candidate who has been accused of sexual harassment. Voters are evenly divided about the allegations and most Republicans believe the public airing of the charges suggest Cain is considered a serious threat to win the nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% believe the allegations against Cain are at least somewhat likely to be serious and true. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree and 23% are not sure. Those figures include 17% who believe it's Very Likely and 11% who say Not at All Likely.
So far at least the controversy hasn't damaged Cain with Republican voters. Rasmussen's national poll of likely GOP primary voters puts Cain in the lead with 26% – the first time in a national poll – while Mitt Romney has 23%, Newt Gingrich on 14% and Rick Perry with 8%.
There is this caveat:
It is important to note, however, that only 32% of GOP voters nationwide are firmly committed to their current candidate. Most (68%) say it is possible something could come up that causes them to change their mind.
Some 30 unemployed people are occupying the offices of Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell in Washington DC:
Specifically, the group wants the Kentucky senator to support President Obama's Rebuild America Jobs Act, a multi-part plan to spark employment that includes increased taxes on high earners. Republican leadership has signaled their opposition to such a measure.
The senator's office acknowledged the presence of protesters in their office today. The group vows not to leave until they meet with Sen McConnell face-to-face.
So Herman Cain wasn't the only circus in town yesterday. Marine Le Pen, leader of the ferociously right-wing Front National in France and oresidential contender, was also visiting Washington.
She had been down to meet Republican presidential contender Ron Paul – but his office had cancelled the meeting. That wasn't going to stop Le Pen, who launched a Marine invasion:
Following lunch and surrounded by dozens of reporters, many of whom had flown to Washington from Paris to cover her visit, Le Pen purposefully trudged across the street to the Cannon House Office Building, intent on forcing a meeting with Paul and blaming the media and political pressure from the French government for the cancellation.
After several fits and starts on the corner as her advisers struggled with which door to enter, Le Pen quickly escaped through a security checkpoint and down a hall.
With Paul on the floor voting, Le Pen hunkered down for 50 minutes in his office, and a tight-faced Paul eventually pushed his way through the reporters, staring straight ahead as he was asked repeatedly why he was meeting with the controversial leader.
Following the meeting — alternately described as "quick" by Miller and "very interesting; we spoke at length" by Le Pen — Le Pen praised Paul, and her own National Front, on their economic policies.
Fantastic.
More on Marine Le Pen's visit to Washington DC yesterday – including this delightful AFP photograph of her sparking up a smoke while clutching her iPhone, outside the Liason Hotel on New Jersey Ave.
Hey, Marine Le Pen should meet Mark Block, the Herman Cain campaign manager who made the smoking-hot campaign ad. They have a lot in common.
The whole Le Pen trip sounds like a scream. Not only, as Le Monde points out, did it mean that she was on the wrong side of the Atlantic while the Greek crisis was entering meltdown, but few American politicians wanted to meet her:
Ce déplacement se distingue aussi par une certaine désorganisation – l'agenda change sans arrêt, les informations sont aléatoires – qui a d'ailleurs laissé pantois les correspondants basés dans la capitale américaine. Pour Marine Le Pen et son entourage, ces péripéties sont dues "aux pressions" exercées aussi bien "par la presse française" – qualifiée à plusieurs reprises de "très agressive" par Mme Le Pen – que par "le gouvernement français".
Après de multiples changements de programme, Marine Le Pen devait également s'entretenir avec «un représentant de la communauté noire», dont l'identité a été gardée secrète, avant de se rendre au Congrès, devant le siège du FMI et au Press Club de Washington pour une conférence de presse.
A "secret representative of the black community"? Maybe she did meet Herman Cain.
Associated Press intros that no politician ever wants:
Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry says he hadn't been drinking alcohol or taking medication when he delivered an animated speech last week in New Hampshire.
Meanwhile in the Senate: Obama's jobs bill got 51-49 votes, which isn't enough for the 60 votes required to end debate and thus avoid the filibuster. So that's that. Back to the drawing board.
Pajamas Media have added a few corrections to their earlier Cain revelations that rather water things down:
A previous version of this story mentioned that a source witnessed Cain and the woman entering a taxi together. This was incorrect.
The previous version also mentioned that the woman awoke in Cain's bed — the source only claimed that the woman awoke in Cain's apartment.
Update: Slate's Dave Weigel points out that the corrections gut the story of its impact:
That's not a correction. That's a massacre. I'm half expecting the next update to report that the man in question was not Herman Cain, but the popular comic actor Charlie Murphy, and that the woman was actually a Japanese body pillow. And this comes the same day as a widely-linked Washington Times story about whether or not Rahm Emanuel is behind the Cain story, attributed to "a source who is friends with the Cain campaign." Friends with the campaign!
How is the Cain affair going down in Iowa? Not well, based on this piece by Craig Robinson of the Iowa Republican blog:
Is Herman Cain a Liar? Yes.
There have been countless news articles about the Cain sexual harassment story, yet none of them have stated the obvious – Herman Cain is a liar.
And it goes downhill from there.
The Atlantic's Garance Franke-Ruta tweets a quote from Mitt Romney in New Hampshire:
I've been as consistent as human beings can be.
At least he didn't say "earthlings". Time to upload a software upgrade for the Romney 20-11 model.
Mitt Romney speaking in New Hampshire today, in the above video.
Sorry, actually this video.
At long last Herman Cain breaks his silence of a few hours to appear on Sean Hannity's radio show.
Sample Cain quote: "I don't know what else to say! How many more ways can I say this stuff is totally fabricated?"
Which "stuff" would that be? The bit about how there was no financial settlements?
It seems all quiet on the Herman Cain front this evening so it's time to wrap things up, after a day in which nothing got any clearer.
