ABC experts Michael Rowland, Barbara Miller and Casey Briggs answered your questions on the US midterm election results and what it means for the future.
Catch up on the Q&A in our blog below.
Key events
Live updates
By Shiloh Payne
We're wrapping up our live coverage for today
Thank you for joining us, and for sending in all of your questions.
A big thank you to our experts Michael Rowland, Barbara Miller and Casey Briggs for their contributions.
According to AP at the time of writing, Democrats have 48 seats in the Senate and Republicans have 49.
Who wins the majority could all come down to the runoff election that will be held in Georgia next month.
In the House, AP has called 190 seats for the Democrats and 209 for the Republicans.
For the gubernatorial races, there are 24 races that have been called for the Republicans and 23 for Democrats.
Here is a look at some projections from other outlets:
- Edison Research projects Republicans have won 211 seats in the US House and Democrats have won 194. A party needs 218 seats for control of Congress.
- Fivethirtyeight estimates that Republicans have won 211 House seats and Democrats have won 201.
You can stay up to date with the latest results right here.
As always, you can find the latest news here on the ABC News website and on our app.
You can also download the ABC News app and subscribe to our range of news alerts.
By Jessica Riga
Here's the current state of play
Control of Congress still hangs in the balance, more than two days after the 2022 US midterm elections.
Here's the current state of play:
- Republicans are edging closer to securing a majority in the House of Representatives after Democrats staved off an anticipated "red wave" of Republican gains
- The Senate is still neck and neck between the two parties
- The remaining undecided Senate races include Alaska, Nevada and Arizona
- Exactly who will win in Alaska's Senate contest isn't clear, but it will be a Republican. Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka and incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski are in a tight race, but neither are on track to win a majority. This means Alaska will proceed to ranked choice voting, which is not a runoff election. Successive rounds of counting will knock out unpopular candidates and redistribute their votes to find a winner.
- In Georgia, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker will face a runoff in December after neither reached a majority. A runoff means they run the election again but with just two people in the race
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Abortion rights supporters have won in five states where access was on the ballot, in Michigan, California, Vermont, Kentucky and Montana.
You can keep up to date here on our US midterms live results page.
By Jessica Riga
Trump under fire after 'red wave' fizzles
Tuesday night's disappointing results for a number of Trump-backed candidates have many questioning the future of the former president as the party's torchbearer moving forward.
"Many of Donald Trump's candidates lost and a lot of people in the Republican Party are probably going to say maybe he shouldn't be the head of our party if he's choosing candidates like this," said Todd Belt the Director of Political Management at George Washington University.
Trump was hoping to use the midterms as an opportunity to prove his enduring political influence after losing the White House in 2020.
He endorsed more than 330 candidates, often elevating inexperienced and deeply flawed contenders.
"I think there's going to be a lot of Republicans who are thinking really carefully about putting together an exploratory committee and seeing whether or not they have what it takes to challenge Donald Trump or to jump into the race against a lot of them if there is going to be an opening there."
By Jessica Riga
Was it a good election for the pollsters this time?
Casey, am I correct in saying that it was a pretty good election for the pollsters this time? If anything they slight overestimated the republicans, in contrast to 2016/2020?
- LW
Hi there, thanks for your question.
Here's Casey Briggs:
I think it’s probably a bit too early to make definitive statements about the accuracy of the polls.
But yes, it looks like they’ve performed better this time overall.
It would have been a real problem for the pollsters if they had underestimated republican votes once again. We don’t expect all the polls to be right, but if they’re consistently wrong in the same direction that’s an issue.
There were lots of partisan pollsters this time around, particularly close to election day, that were reporting very good poll numbers for Republicans, that look to have been too high.
What’s different this time? Have pollsters managed to correct the way the weight their samples, or reach hard to get voters? Is there something about Trump being on the ballot that makes it difficult to conduct polls? Is it just luck?
There are lots of questions, but I think we need to wait for all the votes to actually be counted before we can answer most of them.
By Shiloh Payne
What's happening in Colorado's third district?
We asked Casey Briggs about the tight race between Lauren Boebert and Adam Frisch:
One of the fascinating outstanding House of Representatives races is Colorado’s 3rd District.
Republican Lauren Boebert is the incumbent. On election night she was behind, but she’s managed to catch up and now the race is neck and neck.
There are about 1,200 votes between the two candidates at the moment.
She won this seat easily two years ago.
Lauren Boebert is a guns rights activist, MAGA Republican, who is in favour of open carry of firearms.
This result is one of the pieces of data that’s led many to conclude that the nature of a candidate has proven to be important in these elections. Many of Trump’s most ardent supporters have underperformed relative to other Republicans.
She may still win the seat, but there’s a good chance there’ll be an automatic recount, triggered if the margin of victory is small. Candidates themselves can also request recounts.
By Jessica Riga
What's going on in Ohio?
Can you please explain abut the Gerrymandering situation in Ohio? I understand the district boundaries have been declared unconstitutional 5 (or is it 7) times since they outlawed gerrymandering in that state - so how is the vote there even legal? Would it have actually made a difference in this particular election?
- Constitutionally challenged
Hi there, thanks for this very specific question!
We put it to Casey Briggs. Here's what he said:
The current boundaries are being challenged in court, but the timeline for that matter stretches into next year so for the midterms Ohio has used a map that Republicans on the redistricting commission approved on party lines.
Democrats do not like that map at all — it has 11 Republican leaning seats, 2 Democrat leaning seats, and 2 competitive seats (both of which were won by the Democrats this week). This is a state that, at least in the past, has been a swing state in presidential elections, so expect a lot of argument over Ohio's electoral boundaries.
By Jessica Riga
Is Trump going ahead with his ‘Very Big Announcement’?
North America correspondent Barbara Miller tackles the question everyone is asking.
A good question, since waking up to a headline in the New York Post ridiculing you as Trumpty Dumpty can’t exactly have bolstered his confidence.
This is Donald Trump however and, sorry if it’s a cliché, but anything can happen.
Trump sent out a mail to his followers today offering them the chance to enter a lottery to become the “VERY FIRST PERSON to meet ME in Mar-a-Lago after my BIG ANNOUNCEMENT”.
All you have to do for this "trip of a lifetime", you guessed it, is donate some money, but it’s a modest fee, just $5 will put your name in the hat.
The mail would suggest Donald Trump is pushing ahead with plans to announce his run for 2024 on Tuesday, but he’s doing it against a backdrop of increasing criticism, with many in the party wondering if he really is the best man for the job.
Trump also wants to get ahead of possible rivals announcing their intention to stand, and he may also be motivated by a possible looming indictment from the Department of Justice.
For the moment it feels as if the clock has just been turned back here, and we are all waiting for Trump’s next move.
By Shiloh Payne
What does control of Senate actually mean?
Question about what control of the senate actually means - If the Republicans gain control of the senate by one vote and manage to pass a bill, can President Biden still veto the bill by refusing to sign it into law? Or is there a rule about a two thirds super majority overruling the presidential veto?
- Senate Observer
Hello!
Thanks for your question. Here's Casey Briggs:
Senate Observer, your powers of Senate Observation are on point!
Yes, if the Republicans control both houses and the Democrats have the White House, that's a recipe for gridlock on any contentious bills.
The Republicans can pass as many bills as they like, but Joe Biden can veto them with the stroke of a very expensive and fancy pen.
Yes that veto *could* be overruled in theory with a two thirds majority in Congress, but neither party is close to holding two thirds of the seats.
So the only way that would happen is if Joe Biden blocks a bill that most Democrats do want to see enacted.
There's also the matter of the Senate filibuster, which can make progressing bills very difficult if you don't control 60 votes in the Senate. Again, neither party will be anywhere near 60.
The real power in holding the Senate for the next two years is in confirming judges and cabinet nominations from Joe Biden.
If a Republican Senate needs to greenlight of any of Joe Biden's judicial appointments, that could mean the president only gets the most moderate of nominees approved, or potentially, none at all.
By Shiloh Payne
Why is counting taking so long in some states?
Some states are still tallying up their votes, so why do some places take longer to get a result than others?
Here's Barbara Miller to explain:
If you listen to Donald Trump it's because there's foul play.
Trump has accused Nevada and Arizona, where we are waiting on the results of two key Senate races, of cheating.
The former President is particularly focused on Arizona, where a prominent Trumpian candidate Kari Lake is vying for the seat of Governor and currently in a very tight race.
Clark County Nevada has hit back at the accusations, calling them "outrageous" and accusing Donald Trump of being misinformed.
The simple answer is that there have been high numbers of mail-in ballots in some races and as long as they are postmarked with the date of the election they must be counted.
In Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, the deadline for those ballots is Saturday, and even then there's another couple of days for any voters to prove they are who they say they are if the signature can't be immediately verified.
In Arizona, one reason is the sheer size of Maricopa County, which is the nation's second largest voting jurisdiction.
290,000 early ballots were dropped off on Election Day this week -- compared with 175,000 in 2020.
With key races in both those states so tight it could be next week before we have a clear winner.
It's a similar issue in many of the races for seats for the House of Representatives, and that's why we still don't know the final outcome there either.
By Jessica Riga
How are things trending in Arizona and Nevada?
Question for Casey. How are things trending in the Senate races in Arizona & Nevada. Is either party likely to end up winning both states or is it likely to end with the candidates who are currently ahead, winning office?
- Lachlan
Hi Lachlan, thanks for writing in.
Here's Casey Briggs with the answer:
The flippant answer is that if we knew, the races would have been called already!
Both states have Democrat incumbents, and in the latest count, the Republican is ahead in Nevada while the Democrat is ahead in Arizona.
We're expecting more votes to be reported in Arizona this afternoon Australian time – some US outlets are reporting at least 60,000 ballots. These are largely from people who voted early
Yesterday's dump of early votes helped the Democrat, but not by enough to call the race. If that trend continues Mark Kelly would be feeling good.
But we saw in 2020 that in Arizona, different batches of early votes weren't always uniform, and Joe Biden's lead there shrunk as counting continues.
In Nevada, there are quite a lot of votes left in the Las Vegas area, which will benefit the Democrat who is currently behind. Are there enough still to be counted for her to take the lead? That's the big unknown.
But there are at least 100,000 votes yet to be counted there, and the margin is currently about 16,000 votes. It's close!
Counts in these states are taking a while for a few reasons: it takes longer to process early votes, and they must follow a series of rules around how votes are processed.
The other factor is that everyone's attention is on these races. The public, the media, the candidates, the parties, are all watching closely. Party officials are very keen to make sure nothing goes awry in the count. The extra scrutiny slows things down.
By Shiloh Payne
Why does Biden stay president if he loses control of the House and Senate?
Can someone explain how Biden can remain president for another two years even if he's lost control of both the House and the Senate? What's the point if he has no power to do anything?
- US Politics is Weird
Hey there, thanks for your question.
We put it to Michael Rowland:
US Politics can be exceptionally weird! It makes our politics seem positively normal and boring.
Joe Biden was elected for a four year term, so he serves out that term whatever happens (unless of course he decides to step down some time in the next two years).
The Republicans winning the House will help turn Biden into a 'lame duck' president, in the sense the House can block his legislative agenda.
The president of course wields the veto pen, but being at constant loggerheads with Congress would become politically challenging for the White House between now and 2024.
And if the GOP wins the Senate, it will have the power to block judicial appointments and the like.
All that said, Biden will remain extraordinarily powerful (as any president is).
The power of incumbency and access to that presidential 'bully pulpit' are factors in his favour over the next couple of years.
And he still gets to use Air Force One…
By Jessica Riga
How much of a strategic impact has the midterms had on both parties?
How much of a strategic impact has the midterms had on both parties? Will one party change their approach more than the other as we start to approach the next presidential election?
- Josh
Hi Josh, thanks for writing in. We've put your question to Michael Rowland. Here's what he says:
Hi Josh, there are lessons for both parties in the mid term results.
For the Democrats, it's the confirmation economic issues are front of mind for many voters and they want to see greater action by government to help ease those cost of living pressures. Also, voters in a lot of states said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on health care concerns, so driving that advantage home will be a key strategic priority for the Biden White House ahead of 2024.
For the Republicans, one of the clear messages was to drop the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen. Prominent election deniers failed in a number of key mid term contests, with many voters sick and tired of the constant conspiracy theories. But to make this change would involve the Republican Party breaking from the Denier in Chief, Donald Trump. So, lots of questions for the GOP to ponder, especially if Trump runs again.
By Jessica Riga
Raphael Warnock won the last runoff. Will this increase his chances now?
In Georgia, Raphael won at run off last time. Does that increase the odds for him to win again?
- Rach
Hi Rach, thanks for writing in.
We've put your question to North America correspondent Barbara Miller. Here's what she says:
The incumbent often has an advantage, but I don't think that's necessarily the case this time for a couple of reasons.
Democrat Reverend Raphael Warnock is up against the Republican and former NFL player Herschel Walker.
Walker is a native of Georgia and rose to fame playing college football there, in a state that's football mad.
So it's fair to say he's a local hero, or at least he was.
The political newbie has been embroiled in scandal in the run-up to the election, facing allegations from previous partners that despite his strong anti-abortion stance, he paid for their abortions.
He's also been endorsed by Donald Trump, so he's a hugely well-known quantity.
Warnock was also well-known before he ran for Senate in 2020, he was a prominent social activist and pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church, the same church where Martin Luther King preached.
Some Georgians may decide Warnock is a safer bet because Walker has no political experience, so there could be some benefit there, but you have two very well-known candidates with widely divergent political views and I think that's what matters more.
Both men by the way are already re-starting their campaigns ahead of the run-off.
Texan Senator Ted Cruz will be stumping for Walker in a rally tonight.
Warnock told his supporters today, "you need to stick with me for another four weeks".
By Jessica Riga
Will the Georgia runoff require a new ballot?
Question - In the Georgia Run-offs, does this require a new ballot to be taken. In which case are the libertarian numbers more likely to flow to Walker?
- Chris
Hi Chris, thanks for your question! Here's what data analyst Casey Briggs says:
One of the complicating things about American elections is that every state conducts their votes according to different rules.
In Georgia, the state requires the winning candidate to have at least 50% of the vote.
If they don’t, it goes to what’s called a ‘runoff election’, where the top two candidates will face another vote.
And that’s precisely what’s happening in Georgia, because the race was so close and a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver got just over 2% of the vote.
That vote will be taken in early December, and yes Chris, it does require everyone to turn up to the polls once again.
(By the way, this is a similar principle to how our election rules work in Australia – the big difference is that we conduct the runoff election at the same time as the general election by indicating preferences on our ballots)
In that runoff, yes it matters who Chase Oliver’s supporters would prefer. But there’s something else that *really*matters, and that’s who actually turns up to vote.
Because voting is voluntary, it’s not certain that the same people will come back a second time. Will there be less enthusiasm? More enthusiasm?
That might depend on how other senate races end up being decided.
Because if the senate seats in Arizona and Nevada fall to different parties, Georgia is going to be the centre of the American political universe.
It will be the race that determines who controls the senate.
Which means voters there will be bombarded with campaigning and advertising. All the politicians who were busy campaigning in other states for the midterms will be free to come down to Georgia.
A lot of money will be spent on trying to win that seat. And there will be a massive get out the vote campaign run on both sides.
That’s precisely what happened two years ago in Georgia, when two runoff races determined control of the Senate.
Runoff elections are kinda Georgia’s thing now.
By Shiloh Payne
Trump’s ‘big announcement’ and Pence’s book launch in the same week, a coincidence?
We're expecting a "very big announcement" from Donald Trump next week, but how well thought out was his timing?
Here's Michael Rowland:
As we wait to see whether that 'Very Big Announcement' promised by Donald Trump next week will indeed be another run at the White House, it's interesting to note Trump's vice-president Mike Pence is launching his political memoir 'So Help Me God', you guessed it, next week!
The book launch had long been scheduled, so I am sure the timing of Trump's big announcement was purely coincidental.
Trump remains angry at Pence for not agreeing to overturn the 2020 election result.
Pence's round of media interviews would be completely overshadowed by whatever Trump announces next week.
Just an indication of some of the mind games potentially playing out in Trump World at the moment.
By Jessica Riga
Meet the panel — Casey Briggs
Casey Briggs is the ABC's data analyst based in Sydney.
He's also joining us now and is ready to take your questions!
By Shiloh Payne
What’s all the talk about Georgia? Why does it matter so much?
We've been getting quite a few questions about the runoff election in Georgia, so we've asked Barbara Miller to explain it all for us:
The result of the Senate race in Georgia could determine whether the Democrats or the Republicans hold the balance of power in that chamber, the upper house.
Now bear with me here for some hopefully simple arithmetic.
Each state has two Senators, making 100, so you need to get to 51 to hold the majority.
After these midterms the Democrats have 48 Senators, the Republicans 49.
We are waiting on the results from three races, in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.
If Arizona goes to the Democrats, as is currently looking likely on votes counted so far, and Nevada to the Republicans, again on current voting tally, then the Republicans have 50 and the Democrats 49.
That makes Georgia key. If the Republicans take it, they have 51 seats and the majority.
If the Democrats take it, it's split 50-50, but the Vice-President Kamala Harris gets to cast the deciding vote, and as you know she's a Democrat.
Georgia is one of only two states, the other is Louisiana, where if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, the race goes to a run-off between the two strongest candidates.
That's what also happened in the 2020 elections.
This time we'll have a shorter wait.
Since then the time between the election and the run-off has been shortened from nine weeks to 28 days.
Now if the Republicans take Arizona and Nevada it's all over and Georgia is not important, same goes if the Democrats take those two states.
As I said there's some simple maths involved, but it looks likely that Georgia again will be key, and it's a fascinating contest there between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker.
By Shiloh Payne
Speakers gavel a poisoned chalice? Kevin McCarthy may soon find out
Here's a take from Michael Rowland on the future of the House of Representatives:
While the one glimmer of good news for the Republicans is the GOP being on track to win the House of Representatives, it may not be an easy ride for putative Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Yes, a GOP House will have the ability to cause major headaches for President Biden, but Speaker McCarthy (if indeed he gets the job) will be spending just as much time looking over his shoulder.
A narrow majority will embolden the far-right members of the Republican caucus, like Georgia Congresswoman and enthusiastic election denier, Marjorie Taylor Greene.
This could see the Congressional GOP tilting further to the right ahead of 2024, with the possibility of further splits in the party at a time when it would want to put on a united front to win back the White House.
The Speaker's gavel may be something of a poisoned chalice!
By Jessica Riga
What does a govenor actually do?
What does it mean by govenor? What do they actually do? Are they a mini president of their state? Do they influence the national Congress at all? Same with lieutenant governor? - So many questions
Thanks for writing in! We've throw these questions to North America correspondent Barbara Miller, who says:
I think you've got it.
They're kind of like a mini President, or maybe more like a CEO.
They lead the state's executive branch – and advance and oversee the implementation of state laws.
They serve alongside a Lieutenant Governor – think John Fetterman, the Senator-elect in the key state of Pennsylvania. He's currently serving as Lieutenant Governor of that state.
Governors can be incredibly powerful figures, and here let's look no further than Ron DeSantis, a Republican rising star.
During COVID he took a hard anti-lockdown stance, passing a law for example that foresaw penalties for companies who imposed vaccine mandates.
He also pushed through the Parental Rights in Education Bill, known by its critics as the Don't Say Gay Bill, banning teachers from instructing young students in gender identity or sexual orientation.
DeSantis is using the platform of Governor to potentially launch a bid for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination.
They don't have direct influence on Congress, but Congress certainly has to pay attention to the agendas they push.
Greg Abbott, another powerful Republican Governor has been sending migrants to Democratic strongholds to make a point about what he says is a crisis on the southern border that the Biden administration is failing to address.
By Jessica Riga
Michael Rowland on Murdoch's midterms coverage
Please give a warm welcome to News Breakfast host Michael Rowland!
Before we dive into the question, I wanted to first pick his brain on how the Murdoch media are covering the midterms. Here's what he says:
If there's one thing that has been a constant theme of Rupert Murdoch's 70 years as a media mogul it's that he loves picking winners.
The Murdoch-owned Fox News and the New York Post were enthusiastic backers of Donald Trump ahead of the 2016 election, despite Mr Murdoch reportedly calling Donald Trump an idiot in private.
But that love has soured since Trump lost in 2020, and the Murdoch media has been positively brutal on Trump in the wake of the midterms.
The Wall Street Journal editorial board has called Donald Trump the Republican Party's 'Biggest Loser' and the more colourful New York Post has likened the former president to Humpty Dumpty.
At the same time, the Post has been pumping the tires of Trump nemesis, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. If he does run again, Trump can expect no support this time around from Rupert Murdoch.
