In the past, midterm elections have been kind of predictable. The president is slightly unpopular, his party loses some seats and most voters disappear for two years until they turn up in greater numbers for the main show. It’s been a pretty consistent pattern; since 1934, the president’s party has lost in almost every single midterm election, gaining House seats just three times and Senate seats in only six of the 22 midterm votes.
This year might not buck any of those long-term trends. The Democratic president, Joe Biden, has watched his popularity slump from 53% to 42% over the past year. Polls suggest that Republicans will win the House of Representatives and might even win the Senate too (though if they do, it’s likely to be by a narrower margin). And even though turnout is looking set to be historically high by midterm standards, it’s unlikely to beat the numbers in the 2020 elections. So it’s all pretty much electoral business as usual, right?
Not quite. Here are some of the factors that could shape the votes that come in over the next few days – and, as a result, shape the country over the next few years.
Redistricting
Under Trump, gerrymandering and other antidemocratic measures scaled up. There have been concerns about the way that kind of partisan redistricting might play out in this year’s elections – where the electoral district is purple, this is likely to work in Republicans’ favor, including parts of Texas and Florida.
But as the New York Times pointed out in September, this might not wind up being such a huge advantage for Republicans. While it’s true that the map does work in their favor, the edge isn’t insurmountable for Democrats (and it certainly isn’t irreversible either).
Restrictions
In the space of just six months, 22 new laws were passed in 2021 that restricted people’s access to vote in 14 states. Research from the Brennan centre has indicated that voter suppression is at its worst level in over a decade. Whether those laws make it hard to count mail-in ballots or make it difficult to vote in person, their overall effect tends to disenfranchise those who are already disempowered by other systems in the country – whether it’s people with disabilities or people of color who are more likely to be affected by voter ID laws. It’s also worth pointing out that laws like these are uncommon in most other countries that call themselves democracies.
Republicans have led these efforts in the hopes that voter access laws will work in their favor.
The decisive people and places
Just a handful of states could affect the composition of the House and Senate (unsurprisingly, they’re not coastal). Figuring out demographics is a bit trickier not least because real people aren’t sliced up into the neat categories that pollsters put them in.
But in recent surveys, including one from the Wall Street Journal, it seems that white suburban women are pivoting back towards the Republican party while Black and Hispanic women remain a strong voting bloc for Democrats.
Abortion and the economy
Sure, there are the same ideological arguments about immigration and the economy that show up in any election but this year feels different. There is a general atmosphere of distrust fueled by attacks on election officials and lies about “stolen” ballots that has led some to feel that they are voting about democracy itself. And, since the supreme court’s 1973 Roe v Wade decision was overturned in June, this year’s vote has for many felt like a vote about abortion access. Even the economy has taken on a greater urgency than in recent midterms with rising consumer prices squeezing many US household budgets.
Lastly, polling is still deeply problematic so all predictions about the House and the Senate should be treated with caution until the votes are counted. A Wall Street Journal survey that found white suburban women are switching parties was based on just 297 respondents (which, shockingly, is actually a pretty good response rate for such a specific slice of the country). That kind of research is not only imprecise but it has the potential to be undemocratic when headlines tell voters what the future looks like before they have even had their say.
