An agreement between the United States and Mexico designed to curb the surge of migrants arriving at the US doorstep marks a dramatic new precedent in relations between the two countries, analysts said, warning that the deal could further overwhelm border cities already struggling to cope.
Under the agreement announced in a joint statement on Tuesday, Mexico will continue accepting migrants from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua who are turned away from the US.
The agreement comes as the US is set to end a pandemic-era policy known as Title 42 next week, which allowed authorities to quickly return migrants to Mexico, a move expected to produce a surge of people attempting to cross the border.
The announcement suggests that an accord which began in January, when Mexico agreed to accept 30,000 migrants a month from those four countries who did not follow a legal pathway, has become more permanent, cementing what analysts say is a significant policy shift on migration between both countries.
“The status quo on the ground won’t change much, but from a legal perspective this is a seismic shift,” said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director at the American Immigration council, on Twitter. “At no point in US history has there ever been another country which would take large numbers of deportations from the US of people who aren’t nationals of that country.”
In the long term, the change means the United States could increasingly rely on Mexico to accept deportees from countries other than Mexico, piling further pressure on border cities already struggling with large migrant populations.
“It sets a very delicate precedent,” said Martha Bárcena, a former Mexican ambassador to the United States. “That would put unnecessary pressure on Mexico. And not political pressure: you just have to look at the border to know that we can’t handle so many people.”
The changes come as migration to the US has surged in recent years, with American authorities making nearly 2.6m apprehensions last year at its southern border. In Mexico, authorities detained almost half a million migrants last year, a 44% increase from 2021.
President Biden has faced pressure from Republicans to address the migrant surge: on Tuesday, the Pentagon announced it would be sending an additional 1,500 active-duty troops to the southern border.
But conditions for migrants in Mexico have become increasingly dire, with migrants facing not just extortion and violence from criminals but also abuse from authorities: a fire at a detention center in Ciudad Juárez in March killed 40 migrants.
“We had the fire in Ciudad Juárez, but it appears that we have learned nothing – the border cities are overwhelmed,” said Bárcena. “We can’t receive so many people to resolve a political problem in the United States.”
The White House has taken additional steps to dissuade migrants from even reaching Mexico, including the announcement last week that it would create regional processing centers in Latin America to screen migrants who could be eligible to enter the US legally. The Biden administration has also agreed to accept up to 100,000 migrants from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador under a family reunification program.
But it is still unclear when and how these policies will be implemented. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of migrants are already on their way to Mexico and the US after having crossed through the deadly Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama.
The number of migrants who have crossed the Darién in the first three months of this year increased sixfold to more than 87,000 compared to the same period in 2022, according to figures from the Panamanian government, most of them headed to the US border.
“Across the board, no matter how you look at it, whether it’s children, women, families, single adults, these numbers are increasing,” said Dana Graber Ladek, head of mission for the UN International Organization for Migration in Mexico. “This is particularly concerning given the complex environment in Mexico.”
