What does the leak involve?
The leak involves what appear to be classified US intelligence documents – some top secret – a number of which relate to the war in Ukraine. Others give indications of how widely the US has compromised Russian decision-making, while others contain material derived from spying on allies.
Unlike other recent leaks – including material released by NSA contractor Edward Snowden and former US army whistleblower Chelsea Manning – the files appear to be hard copies of what appear to be briefing materials and slides.
Images said to be classified US intelligence documents began popping up on social media servers associated with the gaming community – including on a section of the instant messaging platform Discord that hosted debates about Ukraine. An as yet unidentified poster first began sharing the material by typing it out with the poster’s own thoughts, then, as of a few months ago, posting photographs of the documents, some lying on top of a hunting magazine.
The photographed papers had folds in them, leading to the working assumption that, given the state of the documents, they were put in a pocket and taken out of a secure location, suggesting someone with a degree of access.
Is the material genuine?
The leak is being treated seriously by US intelligence agencies, who have launched investigations into the leaks. The US Department of Defense has put out a statement saying it is “continu[ing] to review and assess the validity of the photographed documents that are circulating on social media sites and that appear to contain sensitive and highly classified material”.
However, some material that has appeared on Russian channels appears to have been altered, not least casualty assessments in the Ukraine conflict on both sides that were reportedly doctored to minimise Russian losses and amplify Ukrainian losses.
Details in some other documents have been challenged by other countries, including a claim that French soldiers have been engaged in operations in Ukraine.
That could suggest a number of things. First, intelligence is not foolproof and it could reflect only what US agencies think they know. Denials from other countries named in the material may simply be a case of them lying out of embarrassment. At least some of the material – as seems credible – may have been doctored for disinformation purposes.
On the last point Chris Meagher, a top spokesperson for the Pentagon, urged caution in “promoting or amplifying any of these documents”, adding that “it does appear that slides have been doctored”.
What are the big takeaways?
While the most eye-catching detail relates to Ukrainian military preparedness and resilience, not least reported shortfalls in weapons supplies including air defence missiles in February, the leak reinforces several key issues.
The first, long a bone of contention, is that the US spies aggressively on allies as well as adversaries. Second, the material underscores just how effectively the US has penetrated Russian political and military planning to the degree that it appears to be able to alert Ukraine to coming missile strikes and targets.
While some have seized on the fact that the US spies on allies such as Israel and South Korea, this has long been known and was described in detail in the documents leaked by Edward Snowden. However, most interesting in this regard is the fact that the US was surveilling the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, suggesting a desire in Washington to keep tabs on Kyiv even as it has been supplying it with billions of dollars of weapons systems.
Details of US penetrations of the Russian defence ministry and other decision-making circles were also revealed in the run-up to the war in Ukraine when US intelligence was incredibly well apprised of Russian planning.
While the revelations about the degree of US surveillance of Russia are striking, Russia will not have been unaware of this, although the documents could give pointers to exactly how the US is targeting Moscow.
Documents reveal the degree to which the US has penetrated the Russian ministry of defence, GRU and the paramilitary Wagner group, largely through intercepted communications and human intelligence sources, which could now be put at risk.
How will it affect Ukraine?
Most attention has been paid to the documents relating to Ukraine. While Ukrainian officials have tried to play down the content, suggesting it might be disinformation and pointing out it does not contain concrete battle plans for its spring offensive, the material broadly reflects what many have suspected: that Ukrainian casualties may be higher than acknowledged, and that Kyiv has been using ammunition for different systems at times at an exhausting rate, raising questions over combat endurance.
One document from late February questioned Ukraine’s “ability to provide medium range air defence to protect the [frontlines] will be completely reduced by May 23. UKR assessed to withstand 2-3 more wave strikes” from attacking Russian missiles and drones.
The most damage is likely to be in the detail – ie rates of fire for US-provided systems, such as artillery systems and the precision-guided high mobility artillery rocket systems (Himars) which – if accurate – would be militarily useful to Russian planners.
The documents also detail US and Nato training and assistance, which would also be useful to Moscow, including air defence status, battalion sizes and combat readiness at a key juncture in the war.
What does it tell us about US spying on allies?
While Washington was highly embarrassed by revelations of how widespread its intelligence gathering against allies was – the Snowden disclosures identified 35 friendly countries targeted, including the then German chancellor, Angela Merkel – the material suggests the practice is still widespread.
One document reveals how the US listened in on a conversation between two senior South Korean national security officials discussing concerns over a US request for ammunition for Ukraine which would violate South Korea’s policy of not supplying lethal aid to countries at war.
According to the document, one official suggested bypassing the neutrality policy by selling the ammunition to Poland to pass on to Ukraine.
More intriguing is material relating to Israel containing the suggestion, gleaned from communications intercepts, that the leadership of the Mossad, the country’s foreign intelligence agency, had “advocated for Mossad officials and Israeli citizens to protest [against] the new Israeli government’s proposed judicial reforms, including several explicit calls to action that decried the Israeli government”. Israel has denied the claims, pointing out that Mossad is required to be politically neutral.
What about China?
Perhaps unsurprisingly there is also analysis of China’s position in relation to the war in Ukraine, not least following the Moscow summit between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, including what Beijing’s red lines would likely be in relation to sending weapons to Russia. One document suggests that a Ukrainian attack on Russia using Nato weapons could draw Beijing into the conflict.
How damaging will the leak be?
Perhaps less than we suppose. Analysts point out that leaks like this can be a double-edged sword. While Russia will no doubt try to use it to sow discord, the sheer level to which the US has penetrated Russian decision-making circles underlines – once again – the failures in Russian military planning and intelligence, in this case its effectiveness in counter-intelligence.
While allies don’t like being reminded that the US routinely spies on them, it will blow over. And from Ukraine’s point of view the leak may actually encourage better and quicker resupply of key weapons.
