The head of US intelligence has said that Russia’s war in Ukraine is running at a “reduced tempo”, and suggested that the prospects for Ukrainian forces could improve over the coming months.
Avril Haines alluded to past allegations by some that Vladimir Putin’s advisers could be shielding him from bad news about the progress of the war, adding that the Russian president “is becoming more informed of the challenges that the [Russian] military faces”.
“But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of just how challenged they are,” said the US director of national intelligence, speaking late on Saturday at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California.
Looking ahead, Ms Haines said: “Honestly we’re seeing a kind of a reduced tempo, already, of the conflict.” She said her team expects that both sides will look to refit, resupply, and reconstitute for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring.
“But we actually have a fair amount of scepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that,” she said. “And I think more optimistically for the Ukrainians in that timeframe.”
In recent weeks, Russia’s military focus has been on striking Ukrainian infrastructure and pressing an offensive in the east, near the town of Bakhmut, while shelling sites in the city of Kherson, which Ukrainian forces liberated last month after an eight-month-long Russian occupation.
In his nightly address on Saturday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky lashed out at Western efforts to crimp Russia’s crucial oil industry, a key source of funds for Putin’s war machine, saying their $60-per-barrel (£49) price cap on imports of Russian oil was insufficient.
“It is not a serious decision to set such a limit for Russian prices, which is quite comfortable for the budget of the terrorist state,” Mr Zelensky said, referring to Russia. He said the $60-per-barrel limit would still allow Russia to bring in $100bn in revenue per year.
“This money will go not only to the war, and not only to further sponsorship by Russia of other terrorist regimes and organisations. This money will be used for further destabilisation of those countries that are now trying to avoid serious decisions,” Mr Zelensky said.
Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, the United States and the 27-nation European Union agreed on Friday to cap what they would pay for Russian oil at $60 per barrel. The limit is set to take effect from Monday, along with an EU embargo on Russian oil shipped by sea.
Russian authorities have rejected the price cap, and have threatened to stop supplying the nations that have endorsed it.
On Saturday, in yet another show of Western support for Ukraine’s efforts to battle back Russian forces and cope with the fallout from the war, the US under secretary of state for political affairs Victoria Nuland visited the operations of a Ukrainian aid group that provides support for internally displaced people in Ukraine. She also held meetings with top Ukrainian officials.
Ms Nuland spent time assembling woollen dolls in the blue-and-yellow colours of Ukraine’s flag with youngsters from regions including northeastern Kharkiv, southern Kherson, and eastern Donetsk.
“This is psychological support for them at an absolutely crucial time,” Ms Nuland said. “As President Putin knows best, this war could stop today if he chose to stop it and withdrew his forces – and then negotiations can begin,” she added.
Associated Press
