Annual inflation in the United States may have ticked up last month in a sign that price increases remain elevated even though they have plummeted from their painful levels two years ago.
Consumer prices are thought to have increased 2.7% in November from 12 months earlier, according to a survey of economists by the data provider FactSet, up from an annual figure of 2.6% in October. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices are expected to have risen 3.3% from a year earlier, the same as in the previous month.
The latest inflation figures are the final major piece of data that Federal Reserve officials will consider before they meet next week to decide on interest rates. A relatively mild increase won't likely be enough to discourage the officials from cutting their key rate by a quarter-point.
The government will issue the November consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time Wednesday.
The Fed slashed its benchmark rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, by a half-point in September and by an additional quarter-point in November. Those cuts lowered the central bank's key rate to 4.6%, down from a four-decade high of 5.3%.
Though inflation is now way below its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, average prices are still much higher than they were four years ago — a major source of public discontent that helped drive President-elect Donald Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in November. Still, most economists expect inflation to decline further next year toward the Fed's 2% target.
Measured month to month, prices are believed to have risen 0.3% from October to November. That would be the biggest such increase since April. Core prices are expected to have increased 0.3%, too, for a fourth straight month. Among individual items, airline fares, used car prices and auto insurance costs are all thought to have accelerated in November.
Fed officials have made clear that they expect inflation to fluctuate along a bumpy path even as it gradually cools toward their target level. In speeches last week, several of the central bank's policymakers stressed their belief that with inflation having already fallen so far, it was no longer necessary to keep their benchmark rate quite as high.
Typically, the Fed cuts rates to try to stimulate the economy enough to maximize employment yet not so much as to drive inflation high. But the U.S. economy appears to be in solid shape. It grew at a brisk 2.8% annual pace in the July-September quarter, bolstered by healthy consumer spending. That has led some Wall Street analysts to suggest that the Fed doesn't actually need to cut its key rate further.
But Chair Jerome Powell has said that the central bank is seeking to “recalibrate” its rate to a lower setting, one more in line with tamer inflation. In addition, hiring has slowed a bit in recent months, raising the risk that the economy could weaken in the coming months. Additional rate cuts by the Fed could offset that risk.
One possible threat to the Fed's efforts to keep inflation down is Trump's threat to impose widespread tariffs on U.S. imports — a move that economists say would likely send inflation higher. Trump has said he could impose tariffs of 10% on all imports and 60% on goods from China. As a consequence, economists at Goldman Sachs have forecast that core inflation would amount to 2.7% by the end of 2025. Without tariffs, they estimate it would drop to 2.4%.
When the Fed's meeting ends Wednesday, it will not only announce its interest rate decision. The policymakers will also issue their latest quarterly projections for the economy and interest rates. In September, they projected four rate cuts for 2025. The officials will likely scale back that figure next week.
