After an eventful summer, the US 2024 fall campaign kicked off this week with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris addressing Labor Day rallies on Monday in two swing states. Her Republican rival, Donald Trump, did not have any scheduled public events. But it’s still a close race as the candidates brace for the last two months of campaigning before the November 5 election.
Labor Day in the USA is celebrated on the first Monday of September, marking the end of summer and the start of the hard-working fall season. In presidential election years, it heralds the final lap to the November vote, when campaigns pick up speed and candidates forego sleep for the final dash to the finish line.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris had an intense start to the fall sprint season, addressing Labor Day campaign rallies in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two battleground states.
At a union hall in Pittsburgh, America’s legendary “City of Steel”, Harris was joined by US President Joe Biden in a symbolic bid to court the vital labor vote. It was Biden’s first campaign appearance with Harris since she officially became the Democratic nominee.
Read moreKamala Harris says US Steel should remain domestically owned
Republican candidate Donald Trump in contrast, had no public engagements set for Monday, which drew scornful jabs on social media from critics of the billionaire businessman-politician.
Trump did however post a Labor Day message on his Truth social media. "Under Comrade Kamala Harris, all Americans are suffering during this Holiday weekend," said Trump, citing high gas and grocery prices. "When I return to the White House, we will continue upon our Successes by creating an Environment that ensures ALL Workers, and Businesses, have the opportunity to prosper and achieve their American Dream."
Kamala Harris invigorates Democrats
The Harris campaign enjoyed a sunny August, with favourable media coverage of her nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, her first major economic policy speech and her inaugural interview with CNN, a stress test that she passed without any major flubs.
- Tim Walz or the return of kindness in politics
On August 6, Harris unveiled her running mate pick. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz received a warm welcome from Democrats, with the Harris-Walz campaign raising $42 million just 24 hours after the announcement.
Walz’s profile, Democrats agreed, was a perfect complementary fit for Harris: he's from a rural background, she's an urban Californian; he's white, she's black; he's a former veteran, coach and teacher, she's had a career in law. His friendly, avuncular vibe was welcomed by Democratic supporters, who roared their approval at the first Harris-Walz public event in Philadelphia, when she nicknamed him “Coach”.
Walz doesn't shine for his elocution – he had never used a teleprompter, he confessed during interviews with the Harris campaign before his nomination – but his words combine common sense, goodwill and joy. Walz is sometimes compared to Ted Lasso, the genial American football coach in the eponymous TV series that marked the comeback of kindness and good cheer on television in recent years.
- Kamala Harris or how to break with Joe Biden in continuity
Harris succeeded in replacing an incumbent candidate, who by definition had to defend his record, while presenting herself as the candidate for change. To do this, she had to break with Biden and build her own brand. The old talking points of the defence of democracy and a referendum against Trump have been nudged to the backseats. The discourse has shifted from a vote against the Republican's threat, to a choice in favour of the Democrat’s proposals.
The Harris campaign has also attempted to tackle two critical voter concerns: inflation and the migration crisis. Harris is proposing measures to boost purchasing power, in particular home ownership, but is also taking a harder line on Mexican border security.
- Well-honed communication ... so far
Harris, who has a mixed record on high-pressure media interviews, took her time granting her first sit-down interview on the campaign trail. Her August 29 CNN interview went off without a major hitch, a relief for the Harris-Walz campaign.
Meanwhile her communications team is doing an effective job, with occasional stinging jabs at Trump. Harris is also targeting the youth vote on social media, with a personal TikTok account in addition to the campaign account. She also brought together a star-studded line-up for the party's convention, from the Obamas and Clintons to American TV goddess Oprah Winfrey. It was even rumoured that Beyoncé would perform at the convention ... but that was just a Democratic dream.
- Plenty of funds, staff and volunteers
Enthusiasm for the Harris candidacy has also translated into hard cash and resources. In just over a month since she launched her campaign in July following Biden’s exit from the race, the Harris campaign raised a record $540 million.
Read moreHarris campaign raises $540 million as donations surge after Democratic convention
She has more than 2,000 campaign staff (compared with 300 for Trump) and thousands of volunteers who knock on doors and make phone calls on her behalf. There's an air of Obama 2008 about this campaign, according to veterans of American politics who covered the first black president's rise to power.
In a memo sent out on Sunday, Jen O'Malley Dillon, the Harris-Walz campaign head, warned her teams that nothing is certain. “Make no mistake: we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs,” she noted. “This race is going to remain incredibly close and we're going to have to work extraordinarily hard to convince the voters who are going to decide this election.”
Donald Trump or the return of old demons
- Mourning his former rival
Even his most loyal supporters will admit that August was a difficult month for Trump. In US election campaigns, party conventions are usually followed by a spike in the polls. Not so for Trump this time. Just days after the Republican convention in Milwaukee ended, Biden announced that he was quitting the race and endorsed Harris. The spotlight shifted to the new Democratic candidate – and it has stayed there.
The Republican candidate is still mourning the loss of Biden, a weakened rival on the campaign, who he thought he'd knock out on November 5. Instead, the 78-year-old former president has to face a woman 20 years younger than him, with no geriatric memory lapses.
Trump’s rising frustration was evident at an August 8 press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence. An NPR count found Trump had made “at least 162 misstatements, exaggerations and outright lies in 64 minutes. That’s more than two a minute."
Trump took refuge on his Truth social network, communicating with insulting and often incoherent messages. The old demons have returned to haunt him, from the crowds at his rival’s events to warnings that the Democrats are once again trying to “steal” the election from him. Trump’s conspiracy mantras did not work in his favour in 2020 election, but that has not stopped him this year.
- Will he be able to turn things around?
Republican strategists have some advice on how to prevent Trump from sabotaging his campaign. He should focus on the issues on which voters think he is more competent than Harris, such as the economy, immigration and crime. He also has to pinpoint his rival’s weaknesses, such as her shifting opinions on several issues including fracking and immigration. Finally, he would have to pull out all the stops in Georgia and Pennsylvania, two crucial swing states.
But the billionaire has sent mixed signals in Georgia: he publicly attacked Governor Brian Kemp for not supporting him in his bid to reverse the 2020 result, before pedaling back in recent days.
Trump, who was selling himself as a new man after escaping an assassination attempt in July, is battling his instincts. In mid-August, he rehired Corey Lewandowski, one of the architects of his 2016 victory, who let Trump “be himself” without a filter. But the controversial campaign manager not only has a fractious relationship with the press, he could barely get along with several Trump team members in the 2016 race.
Trump has been advised to be less Trump, but he appears unable to heed the advice. “I am the way I am,” Trump told wealthy donors at a July fundraiser in the Hamptons.
- RFK Jr.: a withdrawal with minimal consequences
He was billed as “the third man” in the 2024 election: Robert Francis Kennedy Jr, aka RFK Jr, finally threw in the towel on August 23 and joined the Trump camp. But the contribution in votes of this anti-vaccine, conspiracy-prone candidate is negligible, according to experts, since his supporters were either Republican voters or abstainers. RFK Jr., who dreams of a place in the Trump administration, could even repel moderate voters.
Polling update
Harris is in the lead, although the polls are close in battleground states. Silver Bulletin puts her at 49.2% versus Trump’s 45.7%. Real Clear puts her overall at 47.1% against Trump’s 44.8%.
Polling shows Harris doing better than her predecessor Biden among young people, independents, African-Americans (important in Georgia), Latinos (important in Arizona and Nevada) and women (generally more inclined to vote than men). In short, she managed to mobilise Democrats without frightening independents, which is quite an achievement.
In general, from September onwards, with the conventions behind us, voters begin to stabilise their choices, and movements in the polls become less significant. It's all going to come down to the wire in a handful of key states. But as this is a unique presidential race, we can't rule out more upsets before November.
Next on the calendar: the eagerly-awaited debate
The date is set: Harris and Trump will face off on Tuesday, September 10 in their first presidential debate. The stakes are high for Harris after Biden’s abysmal performance in the June 27 debate. As for Trump, he'll have to show that he's capable of debating a younger candidate without losing his way.
Two rooms, two very different responses
To Georgia now, where two very different scenes unfolded in August.
At the “roll call” for Georgia at the Democratic National Convention, rapper Lil Jon surprised the audience with a belting performance just as the state was called to officially declare its support for the presidential candidate.
On the other hand, when Trump's running mate J.D. Vance made an awkward appearance at a Georgia donut shop, he met with a less than jubilant reception.
It began with a saleswoman stating, “I don’t want to be on film”. As a less-than-enthused staff tackled Vance’s small-talk attempts with clipped responses, Trump's running mate appeared eager to end the embarrassing donut stop, asking staff to throw in “a lot of glazed things here, some sprinkles stuff, some of these cinnamon rolls, whatever makes sense”.
