In a recent interview, a former State Department Middle East negotiator discussed the ongoing conflict in Israel and its impact on the region. The interview touched upon various topics, including the potential influence of Antony Blinken's visit to Israel and the United States' options in response to the intensity of the ground campaign.
Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State, expressed his intention to address civilian casualties during his upcoming trip to Israel. While there is hope that this may have a positive impact, the former negotiator emphasized that there is an expectation for a change in the kinetic intensity of the Israeli campaign by the end of January or early February. The current airstrikes and artillery actions in densely populated areas have caused significant harm to Palestinians, and it is crucial to ensure reliable corridors for humanitarian assistance to reach Gaza.
However, if the situation does not improve, the United States will likely consider different courses of action. These options include slowing down or halting military assistance, altering their posture at international platforms like the UN General Assembly or Security Council, and potentially supporting a ceasefire without requiring concessions from Hamas.
The former negotiator acknowledged that Israel will likely continue its operations in Gaza for months to come. However, it is expected that they will modify their military tactics. If Israel does not make these changes, the United States will need to consider taking a tougher stance. The decision to adopt any of the aforementioned options ultimately lies with President Joe Biden.
The interview also touched upon the meeting between Blinken and Turkey's President Erdogan. While Erdogan has previously skipped meetings with Blinken, this recent interaction may signal a shift in Turkey's diplomatic approach. The former negotiator highlighted that Erdogan's behavior has been inconsistent, often seeking independence from the United States while still needing their support. Turkish-Israeli relations have been strained due to the ongoing conflict, and the overall U.S.-Turkish relationship is expected to continue experiencing fluctuations.
In conclusion, the interview shed light on the potential influence of Antony Blinken's visit to Israel, alongside the United States' options in responding to the escalating conflict. The former negotiator highlighted the need for a change in Israeli military tactics to mitigate civilian casualties and stressed the importance of humanitarian aid reaching Gaza. Additionally, the discussion acknowledged the complex dynamics of the U.S.-Turkish relationship, which remains subject to uncertainties. The path forward in resolving the conflict will depend on a combination of diplomatic efforts and strategic decisions made by the United States and its allies.
