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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Cecilia Nowell (now) and Chris Stein (earlier)

Trump reportedly considers endorsing expanded child tax credit after Harris unveils economic plan – as it happened

Kamala Harris United States Donald Trump Poverty Joe Biden
Donald Trump in Orlando, Florida.
Donald Trump in Orlando, Florida. Photograph: Marco Bello/Reuters

Closing summary

Here’s a look at where things stand:

  • Kamala Harris revealed her economic policies in a speech today in North Carolina, including steps she would take to lower housing costs, fight inflation and offer an expanded child tax credit. She also criticized Trump’s tariff policies, calling them a “national sales tax”.

  • Donald Trump batted back on Truth Social, saying Harris’s policies would force Americans to “pay for free healthcare and free housing in luxury hotels for her millions of illegal aliens” Separately, Semafor reported that Trump is considering his own endorsement of an expanded child tax credit.

  • Harris and Trump have agreed to their first debate, which will be held in Philadelphia on 10 September, the debate’s host ABC News announced this morning.

  • Trump announced his presidential transition team this morning. Despite not having won the election yet, Trump announced that the team would include his running mate, the Ohio senator JD Vance, two of his sons, and two conservative business figures with ties to the former president.

Updated

Cornel West will not appear on Michigan’s presidential ballot this fall, election officials told the Washington Post today. The independent presidential candidate’s ballot access was denied over notary issues, the state’s director of elections said in a letter.

“The charges regarding procedural errors in our filings, such as notarization specifics, are trivial technicalities being weaponized to distract from substantive policy debates,” West’s adviser Edwin DeJesus said in a statement to the Post. “We are confident that these accusations will be seen for what they are – frivolous and unfounded attempts to stifle opposition and debate.”

West’s campaign says it will appeal the decision, but must do so in five days as it did not previously respond to a notification from election officials in July.

Updated

Engaging with young voters. Very mindful. Very demure. Very cutesy. Just hours after VP hopeful Tim Walz joined TikTok, the White House is joining in on attempts to connect with gen-Z voters by playing along with the latest meme sweeping social platforms.

For more on the origins of the meme, read Alaina Demopoulos’s postmortem of brat summer:

Updated

The White House has released a new statement from Joe Biden on the Middle East.

In it, Biden states: “Earlier today, I received an update from my negotiating team on the ground in Doha and directed them to put forward the comprehensive bridging proposal presented today, which offers the basis for coming to a final agreement on a ceasefire and hostage release deal. I spoke separately with Amir Sheikh Tamim and President Sisi to review the significant progress made in Doha over the past two days of talks, and they expressed the strong support of Qatar and Egypt for the US proposal as co-mediators in this process. Our teams will remain on the ground to continue technical work over the coming days, and senior officials will convene again in Cairo before the end of the week. They will report to me regularly. I am sending Secretary Blinken to Israel to reaffirm my iron-clad support for Israel’s security, continue our intensive efforts to conclude this agreement and to underscore that with the comprehensive ceasefire and hostage release deal now in sight, no one in the region should take actions to undermine this process.”

For more on the status of ceasefire negotiations, read Jason Burke’s and Bethan McKernan’s reporting:

Updated

For those following along, JD Vance has landed in Cincinnati after an earlier midair emergency forced his plane to return to the Milwaukee airport.

According to the New York Times, which had a reporter onboard the flight, the plane sat on the Milwaukee tarmac for about an hour before continuing on its way to Cincinnati.

Updated

In an apparent response to Kamala Harris’s speech in North Carolina today, Trump has taken to Truth Social.

The former president writes: “Kamala Harris wants to raise your taxes and make you pay for free healthcare and free housing in luxury hotels for her millions of illegal aliens. Meanwhile, our Veterans are sleeping on the streets and Kamala’s running mate, Weirdo Tim Walz, voted against my VA Mission Act that made healthcare more affordable and accessible for our Nation’s Heroes! Kamala and Walz will put Criminals, Terrorists, and Illegal Aliens FIRST. I will always put law-abiding, hardworking, patriotic AMERICANS First!”

For more on the steps Harris proposed to fight child poverty, housing instability and inflation, check out George Chidi’s report:

In lighter news, you may have seen the author Malcolm Harris’s tweet earlier this week that he accidentally acquired a Project 2025 swag bag.

The Washington Post caught up with the Marxist journalist, who apparently was visited by police after posting on X:

After seeing Harris’s tweets, a woman who describes herself on LinkedIn as a Project 2025 staffer called the police and filed a complaint for theft, according to a police report obtained by the Post.

The cliff notes? Harris ultimately returned the duffle bag to the Heritage Foundation himself.

Updated

Tim Walz has joined TikTok, or as he prefers to say, “TimTok”. The Minnesota governor’s first post features his dog Scout at a dog park along the banks of the Mississippi.

In under a month, the Harris-Walz campagin has reignited gen-Z enthusiasm for the 2024 election, largely through memes and videos shared on TikTok, Instagram and other social platforms. Scout featured prominently in one post that began circulating in gen Z and millennial circles as Harris considered VP candidates earlier this month:

Although Joe Biden signed a bill that would ban TikTok, or force its Chinese owners to sell it, Democrats have flocked to the app in recent months to drum up support from younger voters.

Updated

Trump considers endorsing expanded child tax credit - report

Trump is considering endorsing an expanded $5,000 child tax credit for parents of all income levels, an official at his campaign told Semafor.

“President Trump will consider a significant expansion of the child tax credit that applies to American families,” a Trump campaign official told Semafor. “President Trump respects and listens to his running mate Senator Vance.”

The news comes just hours after Harris announced her own plan for a $6,000 child tax credit, and days after Vance proposed a $5,000 child tax credit during a CBS News interview.

Updated

Another plank of Kamala Harris’s economic platform was a promise to lower housing costs by expanding the housing supply.

Here’s the moment where she announced it, in her just-concluded speech in Raleigh, North Carolina:

Joe Biden had sought to increase the supply of affordable housing with his ill-fated Build Back Better plan, but that did not make it through Congress.

Last month, shortly before he dropped out of the presidential race, the president proposed capping annual rent increases for some landlords at 5%. But, as is the case with much of his agenda, Congress would need to pass a new law to make that happen, and the Republicans controlling the House have shown no interest in doing so.

Vance jet made emergency landing in Milwaukee after door malfunction - report

A charter plane carrying JD Vance, dubbed Trump Force Two, made an emergency landing in Milwaukee after a malfunction with its door, CNN reports. Then plane then took back off and continued its flight:

Vance earlier in the day held a campaign event at a police union office in the city.

The GOP is teeing up their counterattack to Kamala Harris’s economic proposals.

Earlier this afternoon, Donald Trump’s campaign announced that JD Vance will deliver remarks on the economy on Monday in Philadelphia, where he’ll undoubtedly criticize the vice-president. And on X this afternoon, Republican congressman Mike Collins accused Harris of, essentially, trying to “buy votes”:

Updated

Harris vows to expand poverty-fighting child tax credit, hits Trump on tax proposal

As she wrapped up her speech, Kamala Harris debuted a proposal to bring back a tax credit that was credited with dramatically reducing child poverty in the single year it was in effect, and expanding it further.

The expanded child tax credit cut poverty for children by about half in 2021, but expired the following year, when negotiations over renewing it broke down. Harris told voters that she would bring back the credit, and make it even more generous:

As President, I’ll not only restore that tax cut, but expand it. We will provide $6,000 in tax relief to families during the first year of a child’s life. Now, think what that means. Think what that means. That is a vital, vital year of critical development of a child, and the cost can really add up, especially for young parents who need to buy diapers and clothes and a car seat and so much else.

She argued that she could reduce the federal budget deficit while implementing this plan, though did not quite say how, instead hitting Donald Trump over his policies towards lowering taxes:

And we will do this while reducing the deficit. Compare my plan with what Donald Trump intends to do, he plans to give billionaires massive tax cuts year after year, and he plans to cut corporate taxes by over a trillion dollars, even as they pull in record profits. And that’s on top of the $2tn tax cut he already signed into law when he was president, which, by the way, overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly went to the wealthiest Americans and corporations and exploded the national deficit.

You know, I think that if you want to know who someone cares about, look who they fight for.

And then Harris came at Donald Trump with a tried-and-true attack used by Democrats everywhere, by warning that he would repeal the Affordable Care Act.

There’s lots to say about the law, which polling from health policy research firm KFF indicates is generally popular, but which most Republicans continue to oppose. But here’s one thing to keep in mind: it was first passed in 2010, which means there are lots of voters out there who never experienced what the American health insurance system was like before its changes took effect.

Harris warned the crowd that repealing the law “would take us back to a time when insurance companies could deny people with pre-existing conditions”, she said, adding that 45 million Americans rely on the law for health coverage.

At that point, the crowd began chanting, “We’re not going back!”

Updated

Harris accuses Trump of proposing 'national sales tax' with tariff policies

Donald Trump has made levying new tariffs on foreign imports a key part of his platform, but Kamala Harris is warning the crowd in North Carolina that the idea amounts to “a national sales tax” on everyday goods.

“He wants to impose what is, in effect, a national sales tax on everyday products and basic necessities that we import from other countries. That will devastate Americans. It will mean higher prices on just about every one of your daily needs. A Trump tax on gas, a Trump tax on food, a Trump tax on clothing, a Trump tax on over-the-counter medication. And, you know, economists have done the math. Donald Trump’s plan would cost a typical family $3,900 a year,” the vice-president said.

“At this moment when everyday prices are too high, he will make them even higher.”

What’s an “opportunity economy”?

Harris defined it for the crowd at Wake Tech Community College in Raleigh, North Carolina:

An economy where everyone can compete and have a real chance to succeed. Everyone, regardless of who they are or where they start, has an opportunity to build wealth for themselves and their children and where we remove the barriers to opportunity, so anyone who wants to start a business or advance their career can access the tools and the resources that are necessary to do so.

I will focus on cutting needless bureaucracy and unnecessary regulatory red tape and encouraging innovative technologies while protecting consumers and creating a stable business environment with consistent and transparent rules of the road.

As president, I will bring together labor with small businesses and major companies to invest in America, to create good jobs, achieve broad-based growth and ensure that America continues to define the future and lead the world.

Acknowledging inflation's toll, Harris says 'costs are still too high'

Inflation has been one of the biggest problems Joe Biden has faced during his presidency, and in her speech in North Carolina, Kamala Harris acknowledged that despite steady hiring and economic growth in recent years, many Americans do not feel that they are prosperous.

“We have created 16m new jobs. We have made historic investments in infrastructure, in Chips manufacturing, in clean energy, and new numbers this week alone show that inflation is down under 3%,” the vice-president said.

“Still, we know that many Americans don’t yet feel that progress in their daily lives. Costs are still too high and, on a deeper level, for too many people, no matter how much they work, it feels so hard to just be able to get ahead. As president, I will be laser focused on creating opportunities for the middle class that advance their economic security, stability and dignity.”

She then rolled out what seems to be a new tag line for her campaign: “Together, we will build what I call an opportunity economy.”

Harris takes the stage in North Carolina to debut economic agenda

Kamala Harris just took the stage in North Carolina to speak about her economic policies, which are focused on how to bring down costs for consumers.

We’ll let you know what she says.

Jon Tester, a US senator from Montana, is one of three Democratic senators who don’t plan to attend the Democratic national convention next week because they are busily campaigning at home while facing tight races this November, according to several reports.

Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jackie Rosen of Nevada will also not be pursuing an Italian beef sandwich during downtime in Chicago at the DNC, CBS News reports, citing sources.

The outcome of any one of their races this election could determine which party controls the US Senate.

NPR, referring to Tester as the “last Democrat standing” in bright red Montana, reported that his campaign said that, as the only working farmer in the chamber, he is too busy with the harvest to attend the convention. He also has not endorsed Kamala Harris for the party’s nomination for president.

CBS says that Tester and Brown both called on Joe Biden to quit his fading re-election campaign, which he eventually did and then endorsed Harris to succeed him. Meanwhile Rosen campaigned for Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, last week in Las Vegas.

Updated

Outside the Democratic national convention next week, organizers expect tens of thousands of people to march in Chicago to pressure the party to stop the war in Gaza. Inside the convention, uncommitted delegates plan to push anti-war demands in hopes of winning more allies to the cause.

The two movements show the continued fractures among Democratic voters, even at a time of increased unity.

The anti-war movement has planned for Democratic convention demonstrations for months. Joe Biden’s decision not to continue his re-election campaign and Kamala Harris’s ascension to the top of the ticket have not hindered those plans.

Voters who cast protest votes in the Democratic primaries in several states won 30 delegates, who are now headed to the convention. Minnesota won the most uncommitted delegates, with 11. Others come from Michigan, Washington, Hawaii and more.

A coalition of more than 200 groups planned the March on the DNC, which is behind protests scheduled for Monday and Thursday at Union Park, near the convention site, to bookend the convention. The group is still wrangling with the city to secure a longer protest route and speaker space, given the high numbers of protesters expected.

Read the full report here.

Updated

The day so far

Evidence mounts Kamala Harris and the Democrats have momentum with voters as they head into next week’s pivotal convention in Chicago. The vice-president has a small lead over Trump in crucial swing state Pennsylvania, a poll released yesterday said, while another that came out today showed Americans have a more favorable impression of her running mate Tim Walz than JD Vance, the Ohio senator who is Donald Trump’s vice-presidential pick. Later today, Harris will speak in North Carolina about her plan to lower consumer prices, though even some Democratic-leaning economists are skeptical of her proposals against price gouging. The vice-president’s event is scheduled to begin at 2.45pm.

Here’s what else has been going on today:

  • Vance defended Trump’s tendency to levy personal attacks against Harris, saying his advice to the former president is: “be yourself”.

  • Philadelphia will host the debate between Harris and Trump set for 10 September, and Joe Biden is also to drop by the city today for a few hours for reasons that are not yet clear.

  • The Harris campaign criticized Trump, after he yesterday downplayed the importance of the top military award for those killed or wounded in action.

Vance advises Trump to 'be yourself' amid worries over his campaign tactics

JD Vance took questions from reporters during his campaign stop at a police union office in Milwaukee, where one wanted to know if he would advise Donald Trump to focus more on policy and less on personal grievances as he looks for an edge against Kamala Harris.

Some prominent Republicans have recently called on Trump to end the personal attacks against Harris and other Democrats – such as questioning the size of her rally crowds or her racial identity – and instead take her to task on the policies where the GOP is seen as having the advantage with voters, such as addressing migration and fighting crime.

But Trump’s running mate Vance sees no need to change tack: “I don’t think the president needs to pivot, and, if I told him that, I can guess what he’d say. I think that the reason that president Trump has been so successful connecting with Americans is, even when they disagree with something that he might say, they know that he just is who he is.

“I’d much rather have a political candidate who I disagreed with 25% of the time, but was a real human being and was willing to speak off the cuff, than to have somebody like Kamala Harris who hides behind a teleprompter and doesn’t speak to the American people directly unless she’s got a script in front of her telling her exactly what to say,” the Ohio senator continued, adding that he was addressing public safety measures in Wisconsin today, and had talked about trade policy and veterans issues at campaign stops earlier in the week.

“My only advice to my running mate is, be yourself and let people see who you are. And, I think he’s doing that … now on the campaign trail,” Vance said.

Updated

Later today, Kamala Harris will make a speech in North Carolina outlining her economic proposals.

The vice-president is trying to convince Americans that she is the best candidate to lower costs, which rose at rates not seen since the 1980s during Joe Biden’s presidency.

As part of her pitch to voters, Harris will propose a federal ban on price gouging, which her campaign defines as when suppliers unfairly raise prices on consumers.

The New York Times today took a closer look at Harris’s proposal, which addresses a problem that actually has a few different definitions:

To some, it means companies are using shortages as an opportunity to raise prices rapidly, taking advantage of an imbalance between supply and demand to rake in huge profits.

That kind of behavior is common – even expected – in economics, and tends to crop up when products become hard to get.

For others, “price gouging” suggests that companies are choosing to produce less – effectively keeping something in short supply – so that they can charge more. At least in theory, such a situation should be only temporary. New competitors should enter the market and provide products at a price people can afford. And some seem to use the term to mean that companies have been taking advantage of a moment of rapid inflation to pass through price increases of their own.

The Times found that even among some Democratic-leaning economists, Harris’s proposal is controversial, as it may have unintended consequences on the market competition that can lower prices during times of strained supplies – which is what the US went through in 2021 and 2022, as the global economy recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic:

Isabella Weber, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said that shortages and higher raw material costs during the pandemic seemed to work like a coordination tool: Many companies found that they could charge more because their competitors were doing the same. That allowed them to maintain or even increase profits.

That could set a worrisome precedent, she said. In future shocks, companies may not feel much urgency to rapidly fix supply chain problems, aware that they can pull in big profits in the meantime.

And while the businesses are likely to ramp up production and lower prices in the longer term – they would eventually face consumer pushback or lose out to competitors – even a temporary period of very high inflation can be tough on the average person.

“If the worst of times for ordinary people ends up being the best of times for corporations,” she said, people may feel cheated. “Some sort of basic social contract is kind of crumpling.”

She applauded Ms Harris’s plan to combat grocery price gouging.

Mr Furman [a former Obama administration economist], by contrast, said there was a risk that policies meant to curb corporate price gouging could instead keep the economy from adjusting. If prices do not rise in response to strong demand, new companies may not have as much inclination to jump into the market to ramp up supply.

“This is not sensible policy, and I think the biggest hope is that it ends up being a lot of rhetoric and no reality,” he said. “There’s no upside here, and there is some downside.”

Updated

In further good news for Democrats, a Washington Post analysis of polling data confirms that the Sun belt states Joe Biden carried in 2020 appear winnable by Kamala Harris this year, expanding the vice-president’s pathways to the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next president. Here’s more, from the Guardian’s Robert Tait:

Kamala Harris’s surge in popularity since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has opened up a surprise second path to victory in November, according to a fresh analysis of recent voter surveys.

An aggregate of polls modelled by the Washington Post shows that the US vice-president has become newly competitive in four southern Sun belt states that were previously leaning heavily towards Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.

If the trend holds, it means Harris could eke out an electoral college victory either by winning those states – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina – or, alternatively, by capturing three swing states in the midwestern Rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump, by contrast, would need to capture both groups of states to earn the 270 electoral college votes necessary to secure victory, according to the model.

The opening up a potential second front in Harris’s pathway to victory may be the biggest boon yet from her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket in place of Biden, whose only path to staying in office appeared to hinge on winning the three Rust belt states.

Updated

Walz has made a positive first impression on Americans, Vance not so much – poll

Over the past few weeks, Americans have learned a whole lot more about the Ohio senator JD Vance and the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, after Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, respectively, named them as their running mates.

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll indicates that it is Walz who has made a better first impression, with 39% viewing him either strongly or somewhat favorably, and 30% with some degree of unfavorability.

Vance, by contrast, has a 30% favorability rate, and 42% unfavorability. There’s lots to digest in the data, but here’s one interesting finding about the senator: his net favorability is at -10 points among both people without children, and with them, despite Vance decrying Democrats as “childless cat ladies”.

Vance is currently in Milwaukee, and set to soon talk about his proposals to fight crime at a police union. We’ll tell you what he says.

Updated

Joe Biden is expected to jump on the phone later today with the leaders of Qatar and Egypt amid a glimmer of progress towards a deal for a ceasefire deal in Gaza, including the return of remaining hostages, according to a report.

An Axios reporter has posted about this, citing a source with knowledge of the situation.

There is also a quote in another post, from the source, saying: “We got more progress over the last two days than the last six weeks combined.”

Overnight, Israeli forces pounded targets across tiny, crowded Gaza and issued new orders for people to leave areas it had previously designated as civilian safe zones, saying Hamas had used them to fire mortars and rockets at Israel, the Reuters agency reports, as useful context.

The conflict began on 7 October when Hamas fighters rampaged into southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and seizing around 250 hostages according to Israeli tallies.

Israel’s military campaign has reduced much of Gaza to rubble and killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel says it has eliminated 17,000 Hamas fighters.

Updated

Blinken to meet Netanyahu as ceasefire talks go on – report

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, are expected to meet in person on Monday, an Israeli official told Reuters, adding the Israeli delegation at the Doha ceasefire talks would head back to Israel tonight.

Gaza ceasefire talks in the Qatari capital were paused earlier today with negotiators set to meet again next week in search of an agreement to end fighting between Israel and Hamas and free remaining hostages, mediators said.

In a joint statement, the US, Qatar and Egypt said Washington had presented a new proposal that built on points of agreement over the past week, closing gaps between the sides in a way that could allow rapid implementation of a deal.

The path is now set for that outcome, saving lives, bringing relief to the people of Gaza, and de-escalating regional tensions,” mediators said in the statement.

Updated

Governor announces replacement for disgraced New Jersey senator Menendez

Phil Murphy, the governor of New Jersey and a Democrat, has announced that he will appoint George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to the US Senate.

Helmy will replace the senator Robert Menendez, who is stepping down next week after being convicted of bribery.

He will serve out the rest of Menendez’s term, which ends in January.

However, the congressman Andy Kim won the Democratic primary earlier this year when he challenged Menendez for his seat. He beat Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, as well as Menendez, for the nomination and will face voters this November.

Phil Murphy also bypassed several other candidates who had been considered contenders, appointing one of his closest allies, Helmy, instead.

The move, Reuters reports, will maintain the Democratic party’s 51-49 majority in the Senate, until a winner takes office after the 5 November election, when control of Congress and the White House will be up for grabs.

Updated

Donald Trump has been criticized after he claimed that the civilian Presidential Medal of Freedom, which he bestowed on people including Republican supporters and donors during his time in office, is “much better” than the top military award for those killed or wounded in action: the Medal of Honor.

Speaking at a campaign event on Thursday, Trump made the claim as he addressed Miriam Adelson, the widow of Republican mega donor Sheldon Adelson. Trump awarded Miriam Adelson the Medal of Freedom in 2018.

“[The Medal of Freedom is] actually much better because everyone [who] gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they’re soldiers,” Trump said.

“They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it, and she’s a healthy, beautiful woman. And they’re rated equal.”

Kamala Harris’s election campaign posted a video of Trump’s remarks to X on Thursday, along with a paragraph which quoted the former president verbatim.

Alexander Vindman, a retired lieutenant colonel in the US Army who testified during Trump’s first impeachment investigation – and was fired by the president - quote-posted the Harris campaign on X, saying: “Trump dishonor[s] Medal of Honor recipients, our nation’s highest military award for distinguished acts of valor. He deserves nothing but disdain and disqualifies himself from public office.”

Trump has a long history of denigrating service members, including the late John McCain.

Busy times for Philadelphia. The White House just announced that Joe Biden will be stopping in the city today for about three hours, on his way to Camp David for the weekend.

The president has visited Philadelphia repeatedly during his term, both for fundraisers and speeches, including one held in July after his disastrous debate against Donald Trump, but before he ended his bid for a second term:

Speaking of Pennsylvania, polls have lately shown Kamala Harris with the advantage in the state.

Yesterday, a Quinnipiac University survey of likely voters found her leading Donald Trump by three points in a head-to-head match-up, with 50% support to his 47%. If third-party candidates are factored in, she is at 48%, and the former president at 45%.

The university’s findings join other surveys showing the vice-president has the advantage in Pennsylvania, and poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with an overall lead of about two percentage points.

Winning Pennsylvania gives Harris a number of avenues to victory, including by carrying regional neighbors Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the Nebraska congressional district centered on Omaha.

First presidential debate to be held in Philadelphia, ABC News says

Kamala Harris’s first encounter with Donald Trump – Politico reports that they have never met – will be held in Philadelphia on 10 September, the debate’s host ABC News announced this morning:

That’s the largest city in a swing state both campaigns view as crucial to their chances of victory. In addition to the date in September, Harris’s campaign says the vice-president is willing to do a second debate before the 5 November presidential election, though we do not yet know when.

Yesterday, Trump’s running mate JD Vance and Harris’s pick Tim Walz agreed to debate on 1 October.

Just what is Donald Trump’s plan to win another term in the White House? The Guardian’s Hugo Lowell reports that it centers around flipping Pennsylvania from blue four years ago to red this year, an outcome that would leave Kamala Harris with few paths to victory:

Donald Trump and his campaign remain laser-focused on Pennsylvania as the key swing state they have to win to beat Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, according to people familiar with the matter. The former president is preparing to hold a rally in Wilkes-Barre on Saturday afternoon.

The Trump campaign believes it still holds the advantage in the electoral college and has the easier paths to victory, despite a torrid month that has seen Harris ride a wave of Democratic enthusiasm and draw roughly level in several polls.

In the most straightforward path to victory, as briefed to senior advisers on the Trump campaign, Trump needs to flip Pennsylvania and Georgia – both of which he won in 2016 but lost in 2020 – while holding on to North Carolina.

The Trump campaign also sees other combinations in play, such as Trump winning Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, which he also won in 2016. But the vast majority of the permutations require him to win the Keystone state, the people said.

Almost all of the roads lead through Pennsylvania. To that end, Trump has scheduled a rally in the state on Saturday to follow his rally in Harrisburg at the end of July. He has also promised to return to Butler county – where he survived an assassination attempt last month – in October.

The states the Trump campaign believes will decide the outcome of the election are the same as before Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. “The fundamentals are still the same,” a Trump adviser recently said of how they viewed the electoral map unfolding.

Trump announces presidential transition team, despite not yet winning election

No one yet knows who will emerge victorious in the 5 November presidential election, but that has not stopped Donald Trump from announcing his presidential transition team this morning.

The five-person group includes his running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance, two of his sons, and two conservative business figures with ties to the former president.

“We will restore strength, competence and common sense to the Oval Office. I have absolute confidence the Trump-Vance Administration will be ready to govern effectively on Day One,” Trump said in a statement.

The panel will be co-chaired by Howard Lutnick, chairman and CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald and a Trump fundraiser, and Linda McMahon, the former Small Business Administration chief under Trump who also co-founded World Wrestling Entertainment. Vance is an honorary chair, as is Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.

Harris to propose fighting child poverty, helping first-time homebuyers in major policy speech

Good morning, US politics blog readers. Kamala Harris is set to make an important economic policy speech today in the battleground state of North Carolina, as she seeks to press the advantage polls show her having against Donald Trump. According to her campaign, the vice-president will propose policies intended to help families and lower costs, including the restoration and expansion of a tax credit that cut child poverty dramatically three years ago, as well as federal assistance with the down payments of first-time homebuyers. We will hear plenty more about the proposals today – both from people who love them and hate them – but one thing we can say right off the top is that Harris is clearly trying to counterattack the toll inflation has taken on the American public, which was one of Joe Biden’s biggest problems during his presidency. The vice-president is scheduled to give her remarks at 2.45pm ET.

There is, of course, news today about Trump, as well, which is that the former president may soon begin holding rallies outside again. He has kept his appearances indoors since an assassin opened fire at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania last month, killing an attendee, wounding Trump and injuring others. Yesterday, media reports emerged that the Secret Service had approved a plan to put bulletproof glass up when the ex-president speaks outdoors, and deploy other security measures such as drones.

Here’s what else is going on today:

  • JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, will hold his third campaign event in as many days in Milwaukee, the largest city in swing state Wisconsin. His speech, billed as discussing crime, takes place at 12pm.

  • The Democratic national convention begins on Monday and concludes on Thursday, with what is expected to be a major speech by Harris. Her campaign this morning announced they would be deploying top Democrats and volunteers to battleground states nationwide to make the case for her candidacy.

  • Biden will at 11.15am proclaim a national monument marking a race riot that took place in Springfield, Illinois in 1908, which saw a white mob attack an African American community.

Updated

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‘Very disheartened’: trans actor speaks out as Disney changes her Pixar character to be cisgender
Studio says ‘many parents would prefer to discuss certain subjects with their children on their own terms and timeline’
The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
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