Much attention has been paid to the historic race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but the results of down-ballot elections will determine whether the new president will actually be able to implement a legislative agenda next year.
With Republicans defending a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to wrest back control of the lower chamber, and both parties are going all out to win.
Here are 10 House races to watch this year:
Arizona’s first congressional district
Republican incumbent David Schweikert is running for re-election in this toss-up district, which covers north-east Phoenix and Scottsdale. As one of 16 House Republicans representing districts that Joe Biden won in 2020, Schweikert is vulnerable, and Democrats have identified the seat as one of their top targets this year.
After post-2020 redistricting moved the district to the left, physician Amish Shah won a crowded Democratic primary there in July. Given that Schweikert secured re-election by less than one point in 2022 and a recent Democratic internal poll showed the two candidates virtually tied, this race will be a hard-fought sprint to the finish line.
California’s 45th congressional district
Republican congresswoman Michelle Steel has emerged victorious from some tough political battles in the past, as she won re-election by five points in 2022, but Democrats hope to bring an end to that winning streak this year.
A recent poll showed Democrat Derek Tran with a narrow lead over Steel in this district, which covers parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. The Cook Political Report gives Democrats a two-point advantage in the district, but Steel has proven adept at overcoming difficult odds.
Iowa’s third congressional district
Freshman Republican Zach Nunn was previously favored to win re-election in this Des Moines area district that Trump narrowly carried in 2020. Nunn flipped the seat in 2020 after defeating incumbent Democrat Cindy Axne by less than one point.
This time around, Harris is in a strong position to win the district, and Democrat Lanon Baccam’s strong fundraising record has helped put the seat in play for his party.
Maine’s second congressional district
Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is running for a fourth term in this perpetual swing district that Republicans have repeatedly tried and failed to flip. Golden defeated former Republican congressman Bruce Poliquin by six points in 2022, even though Trump carried the district by six points two years earlier, according to data compiled by Daily Kos.
But this time around, Republicans believe they have a strong candidate in Austin Theriault, a state representative and former professional racecar driver who held a slight lead over Golden in a recent poll. Golden has proven politically resilient in this right-leaning district, so a loss could point to broader electoral problems for Democrats.
Michigan’s seventh congressional district
Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin’s decision to run for Senate has created an opening in this bellwether district, which both parties have identified as a key target this year.
Former Republican state senator Tom Barrett is running again after losing the 2022 election to Slotkin by six points, and he will face former Democratic state senator Curtis Hertel. The Cook Political Report has described the district as “the most competitive open seat in the country”, so the results here could have much broader implications in the battle for the House.
Nebraska’s second congressional district
This district will play a key role in both the presidential race and the battle for the House. Like Maine, Nebraska allocates a portion of its electoral votes based on congressional districts, and Harris is favored to win the electoral vote of the second district.
With more attention on the second district because of the presidential race, Republican incumbent Don Bacon is facing some tough headwinds in his re-election bid. Bacon defeated Democrat Tony Vargas by just three points in 2022, and recent polls show Vargas opening up a small lead in this year’s rematch.
North Carolina’s first congressional district
Freshman Democratic congressman Don Davis is running for re-election in this north-eastern North Carolina district, which shifted to the right after the latest round of redistricting.
Much to the relief of Republican strategists, Laurie Buckhout won the congressional nomination over Sandy Smith, a hard-right firebrand who lost to Davis by five points in 2022.
Republicans are hopeful that Buckhout’s impressive résumé as an army veteran and founder of her own consulting firm, combined with the more favorable district lines, will be enough to unseat Davis. But the incumbent held a six-point lead over his Republican challenger as of late September, one survey found.
New York’s 17th congressional district
Mike Lawler made headlines when he defeated incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, then the chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, by less than one point in 2022. This year, Lawler will face off against former Democratic congressman Mondaire Jones in this Hudson valley district that went for Biden in 2020.
Lawler did not get dealt the worst hand from New York’s redistricting process; that distinction goes to fellow Republican freshman Brandon Williams, whose Syracuse-area seat went from Biden +7 to Biden +11, according to the Cook Political Report.
All the same, Lawler will face stiff competition in a race that will be closely watched for broader electoral trends in November. If he cannot hold on to the seat, it could spell trouble for Republicans up and down the ballot.
Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district
This seat may be harder for Democrats to flip, as the Cook Political Report gives Republicans a five-point advantage in the district. The hard-right views of Republican incumbent Scott Perry, who allegedly played a “central” role in Trump’s campaign to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, could allow Democrat Janelle Stelson to pull off an upset.
Stelson, a former local news anchor, has focused her pitch on attacking Perry as a symbol of a dysfunctional Congress, and her message appears to be resonating with voters. One poll conducted in October showed Stelson leading by nine points, forcing Perry’s allies to allocate more funding to the race.
Virginia’s seventh congressional district
Democrat Eugene Vindman, who first attracted national attention for his role in Trump’s first impeachment trial, is facing a tougher than expected fight in this Virginia district that covers some of the Washington exurbs.
Democrats are looking to hold the seat, which was left open after congresswoman Abigail Spanberger chose to launch a gubernatorial campaign rather than seek re-election.
Internal polls show Vindman running neck and neck with his opponent, Republican Derrick Anderson, despite the Democrat’s hefty fundraising advantage. A loss in this bellwether district, which Biden won by seven points in 2020, could spell trouble for Democrats’ hopes of retaking the House.
Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:
US election 2024 live updates: latest polls, results and news
How the electoral college works
Lessons from the key swing states
What’s at stake in this election
