THE looming US presidential elections will raise more questions about the security of Scotland and the wider UK in the wake of Brexit , it has been predicted.
Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, there will be implications for the US’s defence policy and its relationship with the EU and the UK, according to international law professor Stephen Gethins.
As hostilities intensify in the Middle East, the SNP MP pointed out that no longer being in the EU makes Scotland and the UK less secure.
“The situation in the Middle East is significant and if there is further destabilisation, you want to be working more closely together with other European democracies,” said Gethins.
“I also would not underplay the threat from places like Russia and China.”
His warning comes after the Scots boss of MI5 said Russian spies are plotting to cause “mayhem” on UK streets.
Director-general Ken McCallum said the UK should be prepared for more attacks as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.
He added that the intelligence agency had “one hell of a job on its hands” as it was also “powerfully alive” to the risks to the UK caused by the turmoil in the Middle East.
Gethins told the Sunday National that leaving the EU had played into the hands of Russian president Vladimir Putin (below).
“When it comes to dealing with areas of security, Russia is an opponent of the European Union – that is why Brexit is seen by a number of people, including me, as being a Russian foreign policy success,” he said.
A report by Westminster’s Intelligence and Security Committee following the 2016 Brexit referendum accused UK Tory ministers of turning a blind eye to allegations of Russian disruption in the run-up to the vote.
Gethins said being outside the EU made the UK less secure but the only way he could see Scotland being able to rejoin the bloc was through independence.
“While it has been good to hear Labour talking about partnership and common foreign security policy, everything short of being in the European Union is still second best,” he said.
“That’s just making things less bad, not better, and why would you want to make things less bad when you can make them better?
“Rejoining the EU is not just a matter of our economic wellbeing, which it is of course, but also a matter of improving our security in an ever-more dangerous world and that reflects on McCallum’s speech and the US elections.”
Gethins pointed out that many American policymakers are questioning why the US should be investing in Europe’s defence when the money could be spent on shoring up US home defence measures.
Trump is particularly insular, but Gethins said there could be a change in attitude even if he doesn’t win the election.
“There will be a less immediate timetable for US withdrawal if Harris wins but it will still be expected that Europeans do more to defend themselves,” he said.
“It means the UK is less secure outside the EU than it would have been had it remained in the EU.”
Under a mutual defence clause in the EU treaty, member states have an obligation to aid and assist any other member state that is a victim of armed aggression on its territory.
But, said Gethins (above): “The whole problem with Brexit is that Brexiteers have this sense of British exceptionalism which is very dangerous and very damaging and one of the areas where it is dangerous and damaging is in terms of security.
“The EU provides a really important part of what other European countries see as being integral to their security and that is multi-layered.
“Security is not just about military hardware – albeit that is important and albeit that is an area where the EU is increasingly working – but it is also our food and drink and energy security and we are less secure in those areas because we sit out of the European Union.
“The only country out of step on this in Western Europe is the UK,” Gethins said.
