A top Western security official warned on Thursday that Russia has enough troops on its border with Ukraine to launch an attack "with very little or no warning," using false claims of aggression as a pretext to invade the former Soviet Republic.
"That is what makes the situation so dangerous," said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. "So we know about the capabilities, but of course we don't know with certainty about their intentions."
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, addressing reporters from the same NATO meetings in Brussels, said that Russia was sharpening its preparations in the Black Sea and "even stocking up their blood supply."
"I know firsthand that you don't do these sorts of things, for no reason," Austin said. "And you certainly don't do them if you're getting ready to pack up and go home."
Austin and Stoltenberg also disputed Russian claims that Moscow is drawing down troops amassed at the border.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield put her warning in stark terms "to convey the gravity of the situation," asserting evidence on the ground points to an "imminent invasion."
"This is a crucial moment," she said.
The dire admonitions come as the U.S. and its Western allies fend off what they believe is a Kremlin disinformation campaign aimed at laying the groundwork to argue that Ukraine provoked a Russian attack. U.S. and NATO officials expressed skepticism of new claims by Russia that Ukraine is to blame for reported shelling and gunfire exchanged Thursday with Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.
Austin said the U.S. is investigating the incidents, adding that they fit into the Russian disinformation playbook that allies have been warning about. The Defense secretary and Stoltenberg faced questions about the reliability of their own evidence, given prior intelligence failures and vocal warnings by U.S. and NATO officials in recent days that a Russian attack was imminent.
"I don't see this as a competition of narratives," Austin said, pointing to Russia's record. He said he expects Moscow to launch more cyberattacks and false-flag narratives blaming Ukraine.
"We're beginning to see more and more of that," he said.
Austin and Stoltenberg urged Russia to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis. But they conceded that the tension between Russia and Europe could linger, leaving Western allies on the razor's edge in what Stoltenberg called "a new normal" reminiscent of the Cold War.
"We have seen this trend over many years, where Russia contests fundamental principles for European security," he said, warning that Moscow would continue to "intimidate countries in Europe" to disrupt defense alliances.
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