The US has added six Mexican cartels to its list of foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs), as it calls for the “total elimination” of the criminal groups trafficking drugs to the US.
Mexico’s two biggest organised crime groups, the Jalisco New Generation and Sinaloa cartels, were among those added, as were Tren de Aragua and Mara Salvatrucha, groups with ties to Venezuela and El Salvador.
It remains unclear how the designation will change US agencies’ ability to go after these criminal groups, besides widening the range of people that can be charged for supporting them.
But some fear it could be the first step towards US military strikes in Mexican territory.
“It’s part of a political discourse and leverage,” said María Calderón, from the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. “If cartels are terrorist organisations, that paves the way for other arguments in the political realm for taking US military action.”
The designation is part of Trump’s plan to “wage war” on Mexico’s organised crime groups, which he claims will address the fentanyl crisis in the US.
Despite what Trump described as “wonderful” and “very friendly” calls with Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, he has repeatedly claimed that Mexico is “essentially run by the cartels”.
Sheinbaum previously rejected the plan to designate cartels as terrorist organisations as “interference” in Mexico, while saying the US government should look to crime in its own country first.
“Let them start with their country,” said Sheinbaum. “Don’t they have organised crime there? They have a lot to do in the United States.”
The designation, which came into effect on Thursday, marks a shift in how the threat from certain organised crime groups is perceived by US agencies and augurs a greater role for the CIA and the US military.
Trump’s pick for the new US ambassador in the Mexico, Ron Johnson, served as ambassador in El Salvador from 2019 to 2021 and before that spent decades in the CIA and the US army, including as a Green Beret, the elite army unit that conducts covert operations abroad.
However, it is still unclear just what effect the designation will have. US agencies already have an array of tools at their disposal to go after transnational organised crime groups by restricting their members’ abilities to travel or do business.
The main difference will be the range of people that can be targeted, which will widen to include anyone who provides “material support” to the cartels.
Material support could mean anything between logistical support and financial services, training and lodging, guns and false documents. But exactly how that is interpreted will depend on political will.
While the designation of cartels as FTOs itself will not authorise US military action in Mexico, some fear it is a first step towards it. Trump has already suggested bombing drug labs, and has reportedly discussed sending special forces to kill cartel leaders.
Since Trump returned to power, the US military has increased its airborne surveillance of the cartels along the US-Mexico border, while the CIA has stepped up drone flights over Mexico to hunt for fentanyl labs – though Sheinbaum said that this was with Mexico’s permission.
Earlier this month, Trump delayed his threatened 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico after Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 more soldiers to the border to reduce fentanyl trafficking and migration.
It is unclear how those soldiers will reduce the flow of fentanyl, given that it is so potent that only relatively small volumes are moved, and that the great majority is trafficked through ports of entry by US citizens.
Nonetheless, Sheinbaum said that Trump in return agreed to help reduce arms trafficking. Hundreds of thousands of guns sold in the US each year end up in the hands of Mexican groups now designated as terrorist organisations.
Sheinbaum has said that Mexico could expand its ongoing lawsuit against US gunmakers to include alleged complicity with terror groups.
