The Ohio State football team made a huge statement on Saturday afternoon, knocking back a top ten Penn State team with a suffocating defense and an offense that made enough plays at key moments to win the biggest challenge of the year so far.
Each week we like to check in on how the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) changes the percentage chances of the Ohio State football team winning the each remaining regular season game of the 2023 season, and it’s that time of the week again.
So far, believe it or not, ESPN’s crazy model that predicts future performance of a team based on current metrics in combination with its opponents, has been very kind to the Buckeyes. It has predicted them to win each game on the schedule. We don’t ask how the sausage was made, we just consume it and enjoy how it feels on our taste buds.
There’s still a couple of huge tests ahead with next week in Madison being no picnic, and then of course, the year-end donnybrook with Michigan that’s looking more and more like a massive game.
Here is what the ESPN FPI matchup predictor says about each remaining game on the schedule and OSU’s chances of winning, including games against Rutgers, Wisconsin, Michigan State and, of those Wolverines. We also take a look at how things might have changed since last week when we went through the same exercise.
Oct. 28 at Wisconsin
Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 88.2% (down from 88.3% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 62-18-5
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 4 at Rutgers
SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 91.9% (down from 92.2% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.9% (up from 96.9% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.9% (down from 97.2% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 25 at Michigan
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Michigan
Buckeyes Win Probability: 47.3% (down from 52.7% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6
Projected running record: 11-1
NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends
Trending Summary
How each remaining Ohio State game is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor
| Opponent | Chances of Winning | Chances Last Week | Trend |
| at Wisconsin | 88.2% | 88.3% | ⇓ |
| at Rutgers | 91.9% | 92.2% | ⇓ |
| vs. Michigan State | 97.9% | 96.9% | ⇑ |
| vs. Minnesota | 96.9% | 97.2% | ⇓ |
| at Michigan | 47.3% | 53.2% | ⇓ |
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