We’ve now had a chance to catch our breath and come down from what we witnessed about half a week ago when Ohio State found a way to pull an instant classic out in South Bend over a top ten (at the time) Notre Dame team. It kept a lot of goals and desires on the table, and now it’s off to the next leg of a still demanding journey.
There were a lot of national media members picking the Fighting Irish to knock off a Buckeye team still kind of figuring things out on offense, so this was a significant test OSU passed and it changed a bit of the narrative surrounding what this team can do.
Buy Buckeyes TicketsOne thing we like to keep tabs on weekly is how the last week’s docket of games impact Ohio State’s chances of winning each of its remaining games according to the Football Percentage Index’s (FPI) matchup predictor, and there has indeed been some slight changes with the ESPN model.
Here’s a look at what the percentage chance of the Buckeyes winning games against Wisconsin, Penn State, and yes — Michigan — after Week 4, and the changes from the previous week. Keep in mind, these trends and percentages have just as much to do with the opponents’ performance as that of Ohio State’s.
Here’s where things stand 1/3 of the way through the 2023 season.
Oct. 7 vs. Maryland
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 92.3% (down from 94.7% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0
Projected running record: 5-0
Oct. 14 at Purdue
Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.6% (up from 94.9% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 40-15-2
Projected running record: 6-0
Oct. 21 vs. Penn State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 65.5% (down from 70.5% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 23-14
Projected running record: 7-0
Oct. 28 at Wisconsin
Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 84.2% (down from 88.8% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 62-18-5
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 4 at Rutgers
SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 91.7% (up from 90.9% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.7% (up from 95.8% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.9% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 25 at Michigan
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 68.2% (down from 72.6% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6
Projected running record: 12-0
Summary of Trends with ESPN FPI prediction model
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor Ohio State game trends
| Opponent | Chances of Winning | Chances Last Week | Trend |
| vs. Maryland | 92.3% | 94.7% | ⇓ |
| at Purdue | 95.6% | 94.9% | ⇑ |
| vs. Penn State | 65.5% | 70.5% | ⇓ |
| at Wisconsin | 84.2% | 88.8% | ⇓ |
| at Rutgers | 91.7% | 90.9% | ⇑ |
| vs. Michigan State | 96.7% | 95.8% | ⇑ |
| vs. Minnesota | 95.9% | 95.9% | ⇔ |
| at Michigan | 68.2% | 72.6% | ⇓ |
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