The world is headed for "economy-destroying levels of global heating" as signatory countries to the Paris Agreement fail to commit to more ambitious emissions reduction targets.
That's the message from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, as the United Nations hands down its Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window.
The "emissions gap" refers to the difference or "gap" between where emissions are projected to be in 2030, versus what's required to put us in step with the targets of the Paris Agreement for 2030 and beyond. The wider the gap, the worse the likely climate outcomes.
UN climate leaders requested last year (at COP26 in Glasgow) that countries should increase the ambition of their emissions reduction pledges further in line with the Paris targets by the 2022 COP27 Climate Summit, which kicks off in Egypt on November 6.
But that has barely happened, leaving the world "hurtling" towards increasingly dangerous warming this century.
Updated pledges since Glasgow will only shave an extra 1 per cent off global emissions by 2030, and see us on a path to reach or surpass 2.4 degrees Celsius of warming this century, the report says.
To keep warming on track for 2C this century, those pledges would have to shave around 30 per cent off projected 2030 global emissions.
Limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels would require emissions to be cut by 45 per cent more than is currently pledged for 2030.
"Droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires are devastating lives and livelihoods across the globe. And global and national climate commitments are falling pitifully short," Mr Guterres said.
"The emissions gap is a by-product of a commitments gap. A promises gap. An action gap. That gap must be filled — starting with COP27 in Egypt."
The longer it takes to get global emissions down, the faster we chew through our carbon budget — the amount of carbon dioxide we can emit in total before we push past crucial temperature increases.
That makes strong 2030 targets all the more important, said ANU climate scientist and IPCC contributing author Mark Howden, who wasn't associated with the report.
"There's a sense of urgency which relates to the carbon budget and how quickly that's running out," Professor Howden said.
"It also relates to the acceleration of temperature increases — we're likely to exceed 1.5C in the next decade or so. The urgency can't be understated."
Countries falling short of 'insufficient' targets
Pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are made by each signatory country to the Paris Agreement.
Signatory countries are expected to periodically ramp up the ambition of their nationally determined contributions in order to help achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement (to keep warming under 2C, ideally 1.5C).
Nationally determined contributions fall into either "unconditional" or "conditional" categories, with the latter reliant on certain caveats, such as the provision of international financial or technical support.
Full implementation of the current unconditional and conditional nationally determined contributions would see the world on track for average warming of 2.6C and 2.4C respectively this century, according to the report.
But even with the current "highly insufficient" global targets, current policy settings mean many countries aren't on track to achieve their pledges, Mr Guterres warned.
"Under current policies, the world is headed for 2.8 degrees of global heating by the end of the century.
"In other words, we are headed for a global catastrophe."
'Incremental change no longer an option'
Describing the past 12 months since COP26 as a "wasted year" for climate action, the Emissions Gap Report warns time is rapidly running out to bring emissions under control.
Fourteen countries submitted updated emissions reduction pledges since Glasgow, including Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea.
Australia's new target of a 43 per cent reduction on 2005 levels by 2030 brings us more in step with the Paris Agreement, compared to the 26-28 per cent target committed to by the previous governments.
But a report from the University of Melbourne's Climate Energy College last year found 43 per cent was still insufficient to keep Australia within its 2C climate budget — our own portion of the global emissions budget.
"For Australia to remain within its 2C carbon budget, we would need to reduce emissions by 50 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, reaching net-zero emissions by 2045.
"To remain within the 1.5C carbon budget, the targets would be 76 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2035."
Eighty-eight countries have now adopted some form of net-zero commitment, up from 74 at COP26.
Australia also has a 2050 net-zero target; however, Professor Howden says the date we get to net zero is less important than how quickly we get emissions down today.
"It's not so much the end point of when you get to net zero, it's actually what you do over the next few years.
"If we're emitting at record levels at a global scale or fairly constant levels at a national scale, that chews through our carbon budgets very quickly, so we need very rapid action."
The report warns that the global overhaul of our energy, food, and economic systems needs to be rapid and comprehensive.
That includes avoiding "locking in new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure".
"Incremental change is no longer an option: broad-based, economy-wide transformations are required to avoid closing the window of opportunity to limit global warming to well below 2C, preferably 1.5C," it said.
"Every fraction of a degree matters."
A report from Deloitte Access Economics last year forecasted climate change-related natural disasters would cost Australia $73 billion a year by 2060.
Post-COVID rebound puts emissions at record high
Though global emissions dipped during COVID, they've since rebounded, with 2021 the highest on record, according to energy systems decarbonisation researcher Sven Teske from the University of Technology Sydney.
"They actually went down a bit during COVID but they've popped straight back up in 2021," said Associate Professor Teske, who was a reviewer of the Emissions Gap Report.
"Obviously China is the largest emitter in that regard — one-third of all global energy-related carbon emissions are from China. While they keep growing or plateauing we will not close the gap."
The rate of global emissions growth has slowed though, to an average increase of 1.1 per cent per year in the decade to 2019, compared to 2.6 per cent per year between 2000 and 2009.
And that includes China's emissions growth, Dr Teske said.
"The good news is China's emissions aren't rising as much as they were a decade ago. They are in charge of more than half of all new installations of renewable energy technology.
"It's also not true anymore that every week another coal-fired power plant is connected to the grid. That hasn't been the case since 2018-19 — several years.
"You keep hearing that statement all the time, but it's not true."
Professor Howden said moving to low-emissions economies was about more than tackling climate change.
"Action on climate change is extraordinarily well aligned, when well designed and well implemented, with sustainable development goals.
"Action on climate change can generate significant profits for companies that engage with it — it can generate regional development and create jobs. It's not only urgent, but it actually makes a lot of sense to do it."
