Unionist Linda White is expected to replace Victorian Labor senator Kim Carr, after a backroom push in the final weeks before the election.
Guardian Australia understands that, after starting with substantial support, the former Australian Services Union assistant national secretary has pulled further ahead in the race to replace Carr, with support from the United Workers Union.
Other candidates for the Victorian left Senate spot include industrial lawyer Josh Bornstein and Ryan Batchelor, a former staffer to Julia Gillard and the executive director of the McKell Institute.
Senior left sources told Guardian Australia it was the “strong expectation” that White would prevail, and that she may be the only candidate to nominate when the process formally begins in April.
Carr is highly resistant to any attempt to move him on from the Senate, but senior factional sources said he had lost both union and rank-and-file support from within the left in Victoria.
Bornstein commands more support than Batchelor, but his bid to replace Carr lost momentum after he pulled out of the race in 2021 before throwing his hat back in the ring.
Guardian Australia understands that after the UWU amalgamation between the National Workers Union and United Voice, the UWU Queensland state secretary, Gary Bullock, would have input into the Victorian contest.
Bullock had swung in behind White, raising eyebrows about the mega-union’s influence from out-of-state and risking potential backlash.
The UWU is also supporting its national political coordinator, Jo Briskey, to take the next vacant seat in Victoria.
Some believe this could mean Briskey replaces retiring right faction MP, Anthony Byrne, in the seat of Holt, although the right was yet to resolve whether it would let the left faction have the seat in a bid to buy factional peace.
The tragic death of right senator Kimberley Kitching also creates a Senate vacancy in Victoria to be filled by the Labor party.
Avoiding backlash from Carr and respect for Kitching, who passed away suddenly on Thursday, are both factors in delaying a final decision on the Senate spots.
On Sunday the Age reported early names suggested for Kitching’s spot include Maurice Blackburn principal lawyer, Liberty Sanger, Victorian corrections minister, Natalie Hutchins, and barrister Fiona McLeod, who stood for Labor in the seat of Higgins in 2019.
In February the Victorian court of appeal upheld the national executive’s takeover of the Victorian Labor branch to combat branch-stacking. That decision could still be subject to a high court challenge, which would further delay the formal preselection process.
