Union Vote Holds Importance for Presidential Candidates in Swing States
Washington, D.C. - Donald Trump is set to return to Washington, D.C. today to address the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, while President Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan tomorrow to meet with the United Auto Workers. The significance of the union vote in crucial swing states cannot be understated, as it plays a pivotal role in determining electoral outcomes.
Recent data reveals that both Trump and Biden recognize the importance of securing union support. In key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the union member vote is evenly split with Biden and Trump each garnering 47% support. This represents a shift from the 2020 election, where Biden held an eight-point advantage among union members in these states.
Moreover, some states have substantial union memberships, which further increases the significance of the union vote. Michigan, with 14% union members, Nevada, with nearly 15%, and Pennsylvania, with 14%, are states to closely watch. In addition to manufacturing workers in Michigan, the casino industry in Nevada plays a decisive role, as unionized casino employees historically contribute to Democratic voter drives.
Analyzing the national trend line for union workers, it is evident that union members have shifted towards supporting Republican candidates over time. In 1948, the union vote was instrumental in Harry Truman's victory, as he surpassed Thomas Dewey by a significant 62-point margin. However, in more recent years, the margin of victory among union members has decreased. In 1992, Bill Clinton won the union vote by 31 points, while Biden secured a 22-point advantage in 2020.
This shift in union voting patterns can be attributed, in part, to the educational background of union members. Among college graduates, Biden enjoyed a substantial 46-point lead among union members. Conversely, among those without a college degree, Trump secured a six-point advantage. It is crucial to note that unions encompass not only blue-collar workers, but also a significant number of white-collar workers who may have different political leanings.
The ability of Trump to sway rank-and-file union members away from their leadership's endorsement choices highlights his appeal among blue-collar workers. This phenomenon is particularly intriguing, as it affects the dynamics within unions and their traditionally aligned political endorsements.
As the 2024 election approaches, the union vote remains a crucial component of the Democratic coalition, despite a gradual decline in union membership overall. The ongoing trend of union members favoring Republican candidates underscores the need for Democratic candidates to engage and connect with blue-collar workers to maintain their support.
In this politically polarized climate, understanding the evolving dynamics within unions and their members' voting preferences will be essential for both Biden and Trump as they vie for union support in the upcoming election.
