With more than half of the National Basketball Association season in the books, the top of the Eastern Conference standings are just as bunched up as prognosticators expected when players reported for the start of training camp.
The teams occupying those spots, however, have left those very same experts scratching their heads.
At the top sits the surging Miami Heat, winners of two in a row and eight of their last 10, with the surprising Chicago Bulls just a half-game back and a half-game ahead of another surprise in the Cleveland Cavaliers who have also won eight of their last 10 and extended their winning streak to three games with a 115-99 victory over the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday night.
“This is not the Cleveland of the past years – they’re a good team,” Giannis Antetokounmpo said. “I think they have a better record than us right now. So, it’s a team that we’ve got to be careful (of). We’ve got to scout better, we’ve got to make sure we respect them a bit more, now, because they’re a playoff team. They’re fighting for a title themselves.”
None of this comes as a surprise for the Bucks. They knew going into the season that the only task more challenging than winning a championship was winning another and having spent a generation playing the spoiler role against the league's top dogs, they also knew that they'd be facing their opponent's absolute best each and every night, regardless of that opponent's record.
Adding to the challenge has been a season-long battle against injuries and, like every other team, the never-ending pandemic. Milwaukee has played just one game with it's primary starting five; a 127-104 Opening Night victory over the Nets.
Center Brook Lopez hasn't played since, thanks to a balky back issue that required surgery in early December. Khris Middleton missed time early in the season because of COVID-19, then again in December after hyperextending his left knee. Antetokounmpo has battled through injuries and COVID, as has point guard Jrue Holiday.
Injuries and COVID have also cost key reserves like Bobby Portis, Wesley Matthews and Donte DiVincenzo from action for long stretches of the season.
In all, head coach Mike Budenholzer has used 22 different lineups this season, second-most among NBA teams, and has only had his "Big Three" of Antetokounmpo, Holiday and Middleton for 22 games.
Despite all that, the Bucks are still doing just fine this season. At 30-20, they currently hold the fifth spot in the East and are only two games out of first place with plenty of regular season left.
What is concerning, though, is how the Bucks have fared against their top competition. Milwaukee is 19-16 against Eastern Conference foes this season but just 8-12 against the top 10 teams in the East and 3-4 against Miami, Chicago and Cleveland.
Of Milwaukee's 32 games, five come against those teams currently ahead in the standings. The Bucks will play three more against the Bulls, host Miami on March 2 and wrap up the regular season in Cleveland on April 10.
And if the teams' first three meetings, especially Wednesday night's matchup, are any indication, the Cavaliers will be ready to make a statement.
"Going forward, hopefully we can be even more ready for this team,” Antetokounmpo said. “They were physical. They were double-teaming. They were loading. They were all over the place. Obviously, every team has a history of the way they play defense like Toronto, Miami, Memphis. There are teams that have a history of how they are going to defend you. I think pretty much me, Jrue, and Khris have seen it all, but I don’t think we thought they were going to be that physical against us, pushing us out of our spots, but we have to be ready.”
