I received good questions from the people this week and wish I could’ve gotten to all of them. Here’s a bunch, with answers for you …
From Johnny Millionaire (@TheRealBadLeroy): Why wouldn’t the Vikings franchise tag Darnold, so they held the cards and could trade him to QB-needy franchises? Don't understand letting an asset go and getting nothing in return. They (KOC) built him up from zero value to the precipice of getting a huge payday. What gives?
Johnny, this is relatively simple, if you follow me here.
I’ve talked to enough people who feel like Sam Darnold’s market will land around where Baker Mayfield’s did last year when Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million deal to stay in Tampa. You can round that up to $35 million per year, if you want. So if that’s his value, and the Minnesota Vikings may want to go under that, and the tag is at $40.24 million, then franchising Darnold would’ve done two things to Minnesota.
One, it would make it more difficult, not less, to do a deal at the team’s desired numbers, because Darnold would know he can just collect the $40.24 million, and a second tag would cost the team $48.204 million a year from now (at which point he’d either get that or go into free agency). Two, it would put that lump sum on the salary cap, which the Vikings would be able to do nothing about without his help.
Now, there’s risk involved with not tagging Darnold. The Vikings lose control of the situation in doing so. They can ask Darnold to come back to them with any offer he gets, but the quarterback doesn’t owe them that at all. That said, the relationship there is good, so I’d imagine the sides will work together, and Darnold would give the Vikings that courtesy.
And if it doesn’t work out, I think they’ll still want some quarterback insurance. They love and believe in J.J. McCarthy. He played well enough in camp last year to at least raise, internally, the discussion on what starting him as a rookie would’ve looked like. Then, he got hurt. He had a clean-up procedure after the initial surgery. He lost four months of on-field development time and a bunch of weight in the process. So while they love him, it’s fair to ask whether they can bank on only him as their quarterback in 2025.
Remember, this is a veteran team that won 14 games. This isn’t a rebuild. Part of Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s charge here is to make sure a team that’s near the top of the league has a locker room that knows it’s taken care of at the most important position. So if that guy ends up being McCarthy, then that’s an awesome, desirable result. If not, and Darnold’s not around, I’d imagine they’ll still find a guy like Daniel Jones to have on hand.
From Jakob (@Jakob_2709): What is the price tag you would estimate for Aaron Rodgers? More like 30-35 mil per year, or is he searching for top of the market money?
Jakob, that’s a fascinating question. Rumors were he was willing to take a deep discount to play for the Los Angeles Rams, maybe as little as $10 million—with proximity to his home in Malibu and the presence of Sean McVay and a contending team being powerful lures.
Would he take less elsewhere? Well, as I see it, he’s going to want to be excited to play wherever he winds up playing in 2025, assuming he goes through with playing. And so a team that can generate that level of excitement for Rodgers probably will get some level of a discount, though it’d be hard to expect as deep a discount as the Rams would’ve gotten.
From Scott_Da_Sith (@Scott_Da_Sith): Could Jaxson Dart go as high as 14 to Indy? #ForTheShoe
Scott, I’d say, at this point, that Jaxson Dart is likely an early Day 2 pick—but at that position, guys can be widely seen that way and end up sneaking into the first round.
Beyond the presumed first two quarterbacks, I do think that the Ole Miss star is the lead dog. Texas’s Quinn Ewers, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, Ohio State’s Will Howard, Syracuse’s Kyle McCord, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Louisville’s Tyler Shough (you’ll notice those are in alphabetical order) are all in a crowded Day 2–3 mix that has to be sorted out. But Dart’s got good size (if not height), arm strength and experience, and the staff in Oxford loves him.
From Big Daddy (@bigdaddybustard): Albert who do you see as the starting QB for the Vikings, Giants, Raiders, and Browns this season?
Big Daddy, just guesses …
Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy (with Daniel Jones as backup)
New York Giants: Aaron Rodgers
Las Vegas Raiders: Sam Darnold
Cleveland Browns: Kirk Cousins
From Andrew Dockerill (@dockerz77): What position group do you find to be strongest in the mid-first round i.e. picks 6 to 26?
Great question, Andrew. While there’s awesome depth this year at running back and tight end, my feeling is there are probably two players at each spot—Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton at running back, Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland at tight end—who’ll land in the aforementioned territory.
But the edge rushers? Penn State’s Abdul Carter will be gone before No. 6, and I wouldn’t rule out Georgia’s Jalon Walker going in the top five. Another Bulldog, Mykel Williams, will almost certainly land in the Nos. 6 to 26 range, and I think Marshall’s Mike Green, Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart, Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. and Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell probably will, too. If you include the top two guys, that’s seven edge guys.
And that’s a lot in any year, especially when you consider that A&M’s Nic Scourton, Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, BC’s Donovan Ezeiruaku and Ole Miss’s Princely Umanmielen are right behind them. Just a ridiculous year at that particular spot.
From Phil Martello (@Martello16): Who is the best non-QB in the league and why?
Last year, I’d say it was probably either Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Denver Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II, Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley or Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett.
Gun to my head? I love all those guys. But Surtain was so damn consistent. Quarterbacks threw the ball in his direction just 62 times last year—which is pretty impressive when you consider that he drew the opponent’s best pass catcher every week—and had a passer rating under 60 when they did so. Also, despite the limited opportunities, he had 11 pass breakups and four picks, meaning he got his hands on one of every four balls thrown his way.
It's hard, of course, because Garrett’s been the defensive player in football over the past half decade or so, Barkley rushed for 2,000 yards and Chase won the receiving triple crown. But I have a hard time believing anyone is as good at their job as Surtain is at his.
From Last Son (@Kal_houseofel): Assuming Bears address O-line in FA. What position do you see the Bears targeting at 10?
Well, Last Son, they did start to address the offensive line with the acquisitions of Jonah Jackson from the Rams and Joe Thuney from the Kansas City Chiefs (the latter after this question was submitted). Ben Johnson got a high level of play from Jackson for three years when he started his career with the Detroit Lions, so the idea that a 28-year-old could rebound from a tough season with a new team in a more familiar environment isn’t exactly far-fetched. And Thuney is Thuney, which is about as reliable a player as there is in the NFL. All this is also a step toward perhaps not having to press needs when you get to the draft in April.
And if I’m Chicago, I’d love to be in position to either dip into the rich, deep pool of edge rushers available or find a versatile defensive back—Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron would be intriguing in filling that bill—to fit defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s scheme.
The big question, to me, will be where the new staff stands on tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright. Because tackles aren’t easy to find.
From Patsology Pod (@patsology): Is Will Campbell still the best offensive lineman in this draft?
I’d say yes, Pats Pod. With a caveat. Are you comfortable with him playing guard?
To me, this feels a lot like Brandon Scherff coming out a decade ago. Washington selected him with the fifth pick. He was a great—not good, great—college left tackle at Iowa. Yet, questions on how he translated to the position followed him into the pros. Jay Gruden’s staff gave him a shot at tackle first, where he battled Morgan Moses for the starting spot on the right side, before moving him inside. That’s where he’s stayed since, and he’s wound up making five Pro Bowls, an All-Pro team and a lot of money.
Bottom line, he’s no one’s bust. He was a really, really good player. But he wasn’t a left tackle, and Washington didn’t need him to be, since the team had Trent Williams at the time. So whether he was worth the fifth pick rides on how you value positions.
Maybe Campbell will be a left tackle in the pros. I just know a lot of teams see him as a guard, and some have pointed out how it really showed up in spots, with top SEC pass rushers able to get into his chest and control him due to his relative lack of length. Maybe he can overcome that and be a top-10 left tackle, and then he’d be worth a top-five pick. But if he can’t, and he winds up at guard, and plays really well (because he’s a really good player), is that enough?
I think that depends on who you talk to.
From Legendary Starlord (@BigFuddge): Is Josh Simmons’s injury a concern?
Yes, Starlord, a patellar tendon tear is a tough one, worse than an ACL. And it’s hard to imagine that the Ohio State tackle will be full-go before camp—initial estimates had the timeline putting him back on the field in August, though he’s said to be a bit ahead of schedule.
I think that makes digging into Simmons’s work ethic and football character critical, because it’ll take some drive and determination to get back to where he was before he got hurt. That said, before he was hurt, over the first month-plus of the Buckeyes’ season, he put out the sort of tape that no tackle in this year’s draft has—so the reward could be big. And those who’ve been around him in Columbus see him as a genuine, good-hearted kid.
From Eric (@EricL13): Detroit Lions: What position have you heard they are targeting most in free agency?
Eric, the one thing I think a lot of folks have their eyes on, at this point, with the Detroit Lions is whether they’ll add an edge rusher to the mix. Aidan Hutchinson’s tracking nicely in coming back from his broken leg, and could be extended this spring/summer. Za’Darius Smith is still under contract. But it’s fair to wonder if GM Brad Holmes has another swing in him at the position.
Outside of that? The beauty of where the Lions are is they don’t have to really press a need, which allows them to stay loose if there is such a big swing to be had.
From John Scanlon (@JohnScanlon2): Do the Bills make a splash in free agency?
John, “splash” might be strong, but I think there will be an effort to get faster on defense. I could see GM Brandon Beane being involved if a true No. 1 receiver becomes available, but it’s hard to predict whether that’ll happen. What I will say is they’re in a better situation cap-wise now after taking on a bunch of dead money last year.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Understanding Why the Vikings Didn’t Franchise Tag Sam Darnold.
