Closing summary
Global stocks have sold off after hotter-than-expected US inflation figures raised expectations of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy as they tend to be volatile, rose to 6.6%, the highest since 1982, while the headline rate rose to 8.2%.
European shares had turned positive earlier amid rumours that the UK government is preparing to backtrack on some of the unfunded tax cuts in the mini-budget. The pound has pared gains but is still up 0.9% against the dollar at $1.1207.
One government source told the Guardian that No 10 officials were reviewing the mini-budget in order to shore up Truss’s premiership after Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous economic growth plan last month. The chancellor is in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s autumn meeting, and reportedly said that he would not pre-empt his budget statement on 31 October.
You can read more on our politics live blog here.
UK and other government bonds have rallied today on the reports (following yesterday’s heavy selloff), also boosted by the Bank of England ramping up bond-buying ahead of the end of its emergency programme tomorrow.
Our other main stories today:
Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Bye! – JK
Reports of U-turn on mini-budget welcomed by IMF
Reports of a U-turn on Kwarteng’s mini budget were welcome by the International Monetary Fund, which has been publicly critical of the unfunded tax cuts announced last month, reports our economics editor Larry Elliott.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said: “It is correct to be led by the evidence so if the evidence is that there has to be a recalibration it is right for governments to do so.”
Georgieva said she had had a “constructive meeting” with Kwarteng and Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, who are both in Washington for the annual meeting of the IMF this week.
“We discussed the importance of policy coherence and communicating clearly so in these jittery times there are no reasons for even more jitters”, Georgieva said.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, has sent us his thoughts on US inflation.
US consumer price inflation surprised on the upside once again as rapid increases in housing costs, medical care, food and airline fares offset signs of moderation elsewhere. The Fed has admitted it is prepared to inflict economic pain to get a grip on inflation and today’s report will ensure at least another 75bp rate hike in November and 50bp in December.
Nasdaq falls to two-year low after inflation rise
Wall Street has opened lower, and the Nasdaq has tumbled 3% to its lowest level since July 2002 after the hotter than expected inflation figures, which have raised expectations of aggressive rate hikes from the Fed.
Kwasi Kwarteng said he will not pre-empt his planned budget statement on 31 October, a Channel 4 News journalist reported, according to Reuters. The UK chancellor is in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s autumn meeting, his first major international appearance.
Rumours are circulating that the government is considering backtracking on parts of its mini-budget on 23 September that sparked turmoil in financial markets, and chaos in the mortgage market.
One government source told the Guardian that No 10 officials were reviewing the mini-budget in order to shore up Truss’s premiership after her and Kwarteng’s disastrous economic growth plan last month, reports on our political editor Pippa Crerar.
Another source suggested that the option of raising corporation tax was “on the table” as the prime minister tries to balance the books – although this may be by just one or two per cent.
They indicated that no decision would be announced until the chancellor had returned from Washington, where he is at a meeting of the International Monetary Fund, on Friday. However, there was speculation on Whitehall that the scale of the U-turn could make it impossible for Kwarteng to continue in post.
Updated
All of the main European stock markets are back in the red after the hotter than expected US inflation figures which have triggered expectations of more big rate hikes from the Fed.
Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said
The stronger than expected [monthly] 0.4% rise in consumer prices in September, driven yet again by a stronger increase in core prices, nails on a 75bp rate hike at the November meeting and, in contrast to the Fed minutes released yesterday, suggests that the Fed may need to continue raising rates at that pace in December and perhaps beyond too.
The 4.9% drop in gasoline prices last month means energy prices fell by 2.1% but, with wholesale prices more stable in October, that won’t be such a deflationary force from now on. Food prices rose by 0.8%, the same as in August, reflecting a slight moderation in grocery store inflation from the summer.
But the real surprise was that, stripping out food and energy, core prices rose by 0.6% again in September, pushing core inflation up to 6.6%, a new cyclical high. Core goods prices were unchanged, but we had anticipated a fall… Nevertheless, core services prices increased by 0.8%, driven by a continued acceleration in rents and owners equivalent rent prices and a 1.0% increase in medical care services prices, reflecting the continued large increases in health insurance prices. The latter was skewed by the apparent large rise in insurers profits during 2020.
For all the signs of continued strong inflation in the CPI data, there are still clear signs of disinflation everywhere else we look. The drop in used auto prices should continue to feed through, the survey evidence points to weakening price pressures, and the private sector measures of new rents point to an eventual sharp moderation in shelter inflation too – although that wont feed through in earnest until H1 2023. Until that shows up in the consumer prices data, the Fed will continue to sound hawkish, and press ahead with its rapid rate hikes.
The stronger than expected inflation reading has cemented expectations of more big interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve.
US 2y yields jump 14bps to 4.44%, highest level since 2007, after hotter than expected US #inflation, pointing to more Fed rate hikes. pic.twitter.com/idcsfgMGXs
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 13, 2022
BREAKING: Core US inflation rises to 40-year high, securing big Fed hike https://t.co/X5Y9LnV6e3
— Bloomberg (@business) October 13, 2022
Updated
US core inflation rises to 40-year high
That was short-lived. US inflation has come in higher than expected. The headline rate was 8.2% in September, while the core rate, which strips out food and energy, picked up to 6.6%, a 40-year high.
The FTSE 100 index quickly turned negative again while other European stock markets are still up, falling 92 points, or 1.35%, to 6,734. The pound has pared gains and is now up 0.6% against the dollar at $1.1168.
US #inflation hotter than expected. September CPI rose 8.2% YoY vs 8.1% expected. Core CPI accelerated to 6.6% YoY, highest since 1982. pic.twitter.com/WLTqzd6o1M
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 13, 2022
Updated
UK and European shares have also pared earlier losses and turned positive. The FTSE 100 index in London is now 24 points ahead at 6,850, a 0.4% gain. The German and Italian markets have both risen 1.4% while the French index has advanced 0.9%.
The yield on the 30-year government bond dropped as low as 4.38%, the lowest since 7 October, as the rally in bond markets gathers pace.
Jeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at the financial firm Audere Solutions, said:
Sterling has rallied by over a per cent and UK 2-year debt is up by the largest amount since the day after Black Wednesday on news that the government is considering a new stance on taxes that sees their mini-budget of last month axed. This is the market breathing a slight sigh of relief after weeks of astonishing policy announcements.
A statement confirming the rumour will continue this rally, but should the PM and Chancellor hold firm on their original plans, the downside risk to sterling assets ahead of the Halloween fiscal announcement could be truly blood-curdling.
Pound, government bonds rally on rumours of more mini-budget U-turns
UK government bonds and the pound have rallied strongly, as the Bank of England has ramped up bond-buying ahead of the end of its emergency bond purchases programme on Friday – and as rumours circulate that the government could make a U-turn on its planned cuts to corporation and dividend taxes.
The central bank yesterday bought £4.4bn of gilts, as UK government bonds are known, the biggest daily amount so far.
Gilts have recovered strongly after yesterday’s selloff which sent their yields (or interest rates) to levels last seen in 2002. The 30-year gilt yield has fallen 37 basis points below 4.5%, while the 20-year yield is down 26 bps at just above 4.5%. Both jumped above 5.1 yesterday.
The 10-year gilt has also benefited, with the yield back down to 4.17% (from 4.5% yesterday). The yield on the two-year government bond has fallen to 3.73%, down 28 basis points on the day, the lowest level since the mini-budget on 23 September.
The pound has surged 1.4% to $1.1259 against the dollar.
Updated
“We are at the end of the golden age for cheap mortgages and with further interest rate rises seemingly around the corner, homeownership is set to become more costly for many of those on the property ladder and those reaching for the first rung,” says Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at interactive investor.
The Bank of England’s latest quarterly credit conditions survey shows lenders expect defaults on mortgages, credit card and other loans to increase over the coming months as the cost-of-living squeeze becomes more acute. It is a worrying sign of finances being stretched and financial resilience being tested like never before among many of those relying on loans and plastic.
Interestingly, the availability of loans is expected to dip which could suggest that lenders are tightening their belts amid the uncertainty in the money market at present.
The new data supports findings from various house prices indices that demand for homebuying in the UK has tailed off and is set to cool as house prices remain stubbornly high and mortgage rates have risen to levels we haven’t seen since before the financial crisis - pricing many out of the property market. With the ongoing supply-demand mismatch in property propping up house prices, the immediate casualty of higher mortgage rates could be transactions rather than house prices.
With wages expected to further trail behind inflation this year and borrowing costs continue to rise, staying on top of rising prices remains a daily struggle for consumers at the lower end of the income spectrum in particular. The bleak prognosis lays bare, if it was needed, the financial difficulties a great many a set to face in the run up to the festive period.
The Bank of England’s latest quarterly credit conditions survey paints a gloomy picture, with the number of mortgage deals already falling before the mini-budget on 23 September.
Lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households [mortgages] decreased in the three months to end-August 2022 (Q3). Lenders expected the availability of secured credit to decrease further over the next three months to end-November 2022 (Q4).
Lenders reported that the availability of unsecured credit to households [personal loans, credit card borrowing] slightly decreased in Q3 and was expected to decrease in Q4.
Lenders reported that the overall availability of credit to the corporate sector was unchanged in Q3, remaining unchanged for businesses of all sizes. Overall availability was expected to slightly decrease in Q4.
The survey also shows that default rates on mortgages slightly increased between July and September and are expected to go up further between October and December, while defaults on credit cards and other unsecured loans are also set to rise.
The BoE's Q3 Credit Conditions Survey shows that lenders were preparing to tighten access to mortgages even before the mini-budget (the survey was conducted Aug30-Sep16.) But the mini-budget has greatly hastened the rate of deterioration. Good luck to anyone refinancing right now pic.twitter.com/8FHR1RxcSo
— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) October 13, 2022
Updated
UK government bonds recover
The recovery in the UK government bond market continues after yesterday’s sharp selloff, which sent yields soaring to levels last seen in 2002, ahead of the end of the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying programme tomorrow.
However, several economists, including Mohamed El-Erian, who used to run the world’s biggest bond fund Pimco, have said that the central bank can’t just walk away and will continue to provide liquidity.
The yield on the 20-year gilt has fallen 22 basis points to 4.68% while the 30-year gilt has dropped back to 4.59%. Yesterday both jumped above 5.1%.
The Bank of England is the market maker of last resort and has to step in and provide emergency liquidity to maintain orderly markets if needed, so can backstop financial markets. That’s different from the bond-buying programme conducted since 28 September.
Andrew Hauser, executive director of markets at the central bank, gave a speech on this in January last year. You can read it here – entitled “From Lender of Last Resort to Market Maker of Last Resort via the dash for cash: why central banks need new tools for dealing with market dysfunction”.
UK bond market pressure eases a bit as end of BoE buying nears https://t.co/fGGkLxbd3E
— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) October 13, 2022
Updated
The British recruitment agency Hays has warned that hiring activity has slowed in some markets, including the UK and the US.
Alistair Cox, the chief executive, said:
Our forward-looking client and candidate activity levels remain good overall, particularly in Germany and EMEA, but have reduced modestly in a number of other markets as macroeconomic uncertainties increase. This said, our key markets continue to be characterised by acute skill shortages and wage inflation.
The London-based company said said net fees grew by 19% in its first quarter to 30 September, compared with a 36% rise a year earlier. However, it expects to benefit from the weaker pound – saying that the weakening of sterling against its main trading currencies, the euro and the Australian dollar, will boost its operating profit this year.
Rival PageGroup, headquartered in Weybridge in Surrey, said yesterday that it had seen a “slight softening” in employer confidence across most markets, leading to some job withdrawals and a hiring slowdown in recent weeks.
Another Royal Mail strike: Postal workers have launched a 24-hour strike in a long-running dispute over pay and conditions, with industrial action planned for the coming weeks.
The Communication Workers Union (CWU) said its 115,000 members across the UK were taking action on Thursday, describing it as the largest strike in a year. The move comes amid industrial unrest across several industries, including rail.
Picket lines have been mounted outside Royal Mail offices on the sixth day of action in recent months.
The union accuses the company of planning structural changes, which would in effect transform employees in secure, well-paid jobs into a “casualised, financially precarious workforce overnight”.
Strikes are planned for Black Friday week and Cyber Monday, when online purchases surge.
Updated
Poorer families risk £1,000 hit from earnings-related benefits rise
If the government raises benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, it would drastically cut the incomes of poorer working-age families, while saving less than a tenth of the cost of recent tax cuts, a leading economic thinktank has calculated.
Such a change, which would mean a significant real-terms cut given that wages are rising at 5.5% with inflation close to 10%, could see the effective income of some families reduced by up to £1,000 a year, the Resolution Foundation said.
In a report, it said this decision would end up saving about £3bn by 2026-27, whereas the tax cuts announced in Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget would cost about £40bn, even now that one of them – scrapping the top 45p rate of tax – has been reversed.
Here is our full story on the expected Ofgem announcement:
The UK’s energy regulator will advise households to reduce their gas and electricity use “where possible” after the government blocked a state-led information campaign amid fears over potential blackouts this winter.
Ofgem’s chief executive, Jonathan Brearley, is expected to announce the regulator’s public information campaign on Thursday, when he will tell the Energy UK conference “this isn’t the time for complacency” as energy costs continue to rise.
He is expected to say that reducing energy consumption is “not only the most direct way of reducing our bills [but] it directly helps with security of supply, contributes to decarbonisation, and saves money for the public finances,” according to the Financial Times.
Updated
Goldman Sachs warns of UK commercial property crash
Goldman Sachs has sounded the alarm on the UK commercial property market, saying that developers will struggle because of the sharp rise in borrowing costs since the government’s mini-budget on 23 September.
Rising interest rates – the Bank of England’s base rate is now expected to rise to 6% by next summer – will hit companies like British Land, Land Securities and Hammerson, which build offices, shops and warehouses, just like homebuyers looking for a mortgage deal.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting that prices across UK commercial property will fall between 15% and 20% between June this year and the end of 2024, the Financial Times reported.
The five-year swap rate used by commercial property borrowers has jumped from 1% a year ago to above 5%, and Goldman estimates that gross financing costs for the listed property developers will rise by 75% over the next five years.
Zoopla: Buyer demand has dropped by a fifth since mini-budget
Buyer demand - enquiries about homes for sale on Zoopla - have dropped by over a fifth in the last two weeks, since the mini-budget sent mortgage rates soaring, the property website reports. It explains:
Mortgage rates were set to rise to 4-5% over 2022 before the mini budget.
This, together with increases in the the cost of living, were starting to weaken demand for homes over the summer months.
The fall-out from the mini budget has effectively added an extra 1% to mortgage rates, which are now settling around the 6% mark.
This increase represents a 25-30% hit to the buying power of home buyers using a mortgage.
Widespread reporting of mortgages being pulled and the increase costs of mortgage payments have certainly dented market activity.
Zoopla reporting falls in “buyer demand”, and sales agreed since the mini budgethttps://t.co/VVruiMEuyK pic.twitter.com/3IUcsDvpEC
— Neal Hudson (@resi_analyst) October 13, 2022
EasyJet: bookings holding up for this winter and next summer
EasyJet says bookings are holding up for this winter and next summer, despite the consumer squeeze.
The airline said ticket sales for the UK’s half term holiday later this month and the Christmas week exceeded pre-pandemic levels and it expects to fly 20m seats in the three months to the end of December, up 30% year on year.
It expects to post an annual loss before tax of between £170m and £190m, down from £1.1bn last year when Covid restrictions led to a slump in air travel.
Johan Lundgren, the chief executive, said:
Our summer 23 season went on sale last week and we were filling the equivalent of more than four A320 aircraft a minute in the opening hours demonstrating the continued demand.
We face the uncertain macro-economic environment with many strengths.
Between July and September, easyJet flew 88% of its pre pandemic capacity, compared with 58% in the same period last year. Passenger numbers increased to 24.3 million, from 13.4 million.
However, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:
With the share price already at 10-year lows, easyJet has had a pretty poor year.
Not only has the airline had to contend with bid speculation from the likes of Wizz Air, but it’s also had to deal with surging energy prices, as well as large scale travel disruption throughout the summer, which cost it £133m, as airports struggled to cope with surging passenger numbers.
He is sceptical that easyJet can fly 20m seats between October and December.
This seems optimistic given that they can barely cope with their current capacity at some airports.
Anecdotal reports of waits of up to 2 hours to be presented with your bags at Gatwick Airport has been a common experience. Until it can sort out logistical problems of this kind easyJet could well struggle to meet its capacity targets, as people simply won’t travel with them.
Updated
Stocks fall, pound under pressure, government bonds recover slightly
European stock markets have opened lower, extending their losing streak to a seventh day. The FTSE 100 index has dropped 23 points to 6,802, a 0.36% decline, while Germany’s Dax is down 0.5%, France’s CAC has lost 0.67% and Italy’s FTSE MiB is flat.
Sterling remains under pressure, trading 0.3% lower against the dollar at $1.1069.
UK government bonds sold off heavily yesterday ahead of the end of the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying programme on Friday, as the central bank ruled out extending it and the governor Andrew Bailey told pension funds they had just three days to fix liquidity problems.
The sell-off pushed yields (or interest rates) on 20- and 30-year gilts to their highest levels since 2002, with both rising above 5.1%.
This morning, they have fallen back a bit, with the 20-year yield at 4.88% and the 30-year yield at 4.78%. Long-dated bond yields have also risen in other countries, but the moves have been most severe in Britain.
However, there are expectations that the Bank will continue to provide some liquidity to the market, as the economist Mohamed El-Erian, who used to run the world’s biggest bond fund Pimco, said this morning.
Analysts from RBC said:
Despite governor Bailey’s comments to the contrary, it seems likely to us given current gilt market volatility that it will be necessary for the Bank of England to continue intervening in the long end of the curve beyond the end of this week.
Pension funds have scrambled to raise cash since the government’s mini-budget on 23 September sparked a selloff in bond markets, forcing funds to stump up emergency collateral in liability-driven investments, after gilts plummeted in value. The Bank of England stepped in the following Wednesday with an emergency bond-buying programme to calm the market and prevent a collapse of pension funds. That programme is due to end tomorrow.
Updated
El-Erian: Bank of England likely to provide liquidity after Friday's deadline
The Bank of England is likely to continue to provide liquidity after the end of its bond-buying programme tomorrow, said Mohamed El-Erian, president at Queens’ College Cambridge and part-time chief economic advisor at Europe’s biggest insurer Allianz.
Speaking on BBC radio 4’s Today programme, he also said the UK cannot wait until the end of the month for Kwasi Kwarteng’s budget announcement and the independent forecasts from the fiscal watchdog.
A lot of people and I would agree that when push comes to shove, the Bank of England is likely to continue providing liquidity support. A central bank is like a doctor. If the patent is really ill and even if the patient has misbehaved it is very difficult for a doctor to walk away. So the reality of central bank emergency interventions is that they tend to continue for longer than what is expected and central banks simply will not walk away.
Asked whether the government understands the gravity of the situation, he said:
I think they’re getting there, but they are not there yet. So they now understand that you can’t resolve the issue by cutting spending heavily that that simply won’t work. There’s starting to be some talk among backbenchers that perhaps we need a reset of the mini-budget and particularly the unfunded tax cuts. And ultimately that is a necessary condition to get us out of this mess.
Everybody will acknowledge that the fluid global conditions have contributed to this; the main cause has been the mini-budget. And there are ways to measure this. Just look at the interest rate differential between the UK and Germany, the UK and the US, you will see that that differential widens quite a bit on the announcement of the mini-budget so there is definitely a domestic driver, it is not the only driver there certainly are global factors. There is a worldwide increase in yields but it has been much bigger in the UK than it has been in other countries.
The chancellor now plans to make his budget announcement on 31 October, which was brought forward from 23 November, alongside independent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, but El-Erian says we cannot wait until then.
We should not wait until the end of the month. There is a lot of damage being created right now, the high interest rate structure is getting embedded into the economy, the mortgage market is coming under pressure. People’s confidence and business confidence is coming down. So if we wait another three weeks, there will be more damage not just to actual growth but also potential growth.
Finally, El-Erian provided some reassurance about pensions – while mortgages are another matter.
You shouldn’t be worried about your pensions because that is going to be supported one way or the other. You should be worried if you’ve got a mortgage coming up because that is unlikely to come back to the sorts of levels where we were at a few weeks ago, it will take time. Then longer term we should all be worried that unless we can restore confidence and private sector buying for the government policy package it’s going to be harder to grow at a time when the global economy is facing significant headwinds.
Updated
UK homeowners will struggle to make mortgage repayments and repossessions will rise next year as soaring interest rates and falling prices mark the end of the 13-year housing market boom, according to a sobering report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
The number of inquiries from potential homebuyers fell for a fifth month in a row in September, while sales fell to the lowest level since May 2020 when the housing market all but ground to a halt during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, it said.
The number of new instructions to sell has continued to fall – stock levels are at historic lows with estate agents on average listing just 34 homes on their books.
Introduction: Kwarteng meets world leaders at IMF; Ofgem to urge consumers to cut energy use
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.
The UK chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, is meeting world leaders at the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington today. His first major international appearance comes at a critical time, as he is under huge pressure at home to reverse his mini-budget of unfunded tax measures, which sent the pound sliding, government borrowing costs soaring and pushed up mortgage rates.
NEW: Andrew Bailey and Kwasi Kwarteng attended a meeting of the G7 counterparts in Washington this afternoon, where their counterparts, led by Janet Yellen, made a number of "backhanded" swipes at events in the UK
— Mehreen Khan (@MehreenKhn) October 12, 2022
Turmoil in the UK has been the big story in DC this week. The gilts meltdown has been the talk of European finance ministers and the IMF, with diplomats privately taking comfort in the market reaction as clear warnings to Italy's Meloni to toe the line
— Mehreen Khan (@MehreenKhn) October 12, 2022
Back home, Britain’s energy regulator will urge consumers to reduce their gas and electricity use “where possible”, the Financial Times reports. The Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley will say in a speech in London that cutting back on energy is “not only the most direct way of reducing our bills [but] it directly helps with security of supply, contributes to decarbonisation, and saves money for the public finances”.
However, he will also play down the threat of energy shortages this winter, saying that a supply emergency is not likely.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, sums up yesterday’s moves in the financial markets.
It was another disappointing session for the FTSE 100 yesterday as the UK blue chip closed at an 18-month low, dragged lower by a sharp fall in banks and house builders as a result of a sharp rise in long term [bond] yields.
This rise in yields has been driven over concerns about the fiscal plans of the UK government as well as the prospect of a bumper rate hike by the Bank of England in November.
US markets also underwent a difficult session with the S&P 500 languishing close to 18-month lows, along with the Nasdaq 100.
Last night’s Federal Reserve minutes contained little in the way of surprises, with central bank officials indicating that rate hikes were likely to continue, given that inflation remained unacceptably high, and that it was likely to remain higher for longer than expected.
A little surprisingly, yields slipped back in the aftermath of the release of the minutes despite there being little sign of any shift in thinking, with the expectation that another 75 basis point rate hike is coming at the beginning of November.
This morning, the yen is hovering near a fresh 24-year low while sterling slipped as investors awaited US inflation figures today and the end of the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying programme on Friday. The pound dropped 0.2% to $1.1076.
The yen fell to 146.98 per dollar, close to the 147.64 low hit in August 1998, and well past last month’s low of 145.90 per dollar which prompted Japanese to step in to buy the yen.
Asian stocks weakened ahead of US inflation, which could determine the pace of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.8% and the South Korean Kospi lost 1.3%.
The Agenda
9am BST: IEA Oil market report
9.30am BST: Bank of England Credit conditions survey
1.30pm BST: US inflation for September (forecast: 6.5%)
Updated
