Forecasters from the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) say the chances of an El Nino global weather event happening by the end of the summer have risen, bringing with it the risk of new record-breaking temperatures.
The WMO on Wednesday estimated a 60 percent chance that El Nino would develop by the end of July, rising to an 80 percent chance by the end of September.
“This will change the weather and climate patterns worldwide,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the head of the WMO’s regional climate prediction services division, told reporters in Geneva.
There is about 60% chance for the onset of #ElNino during May-July, rising to 70-80% during July- Sept.#ElNiño affects weather and climate patterns in many parts of the world and is typically associated with higher global temperatures.
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) May 3, 2023
🔗https://t.co/XfRP2CaH9C pic.twitter.com/5TCUrV0nkC
Record temperatures
A global weather pattern tied to intense heat and drought, El Nino last occurred in 2018-2019.
Since 2020 though, the world has been hit with an exceptionally long La Nina – El Nino’s cooling opposite – which ended earlier in 2023.
Despite La Nina’s cooling effect stretching over nearly half that period, the UN has said the last eight years were the warmest ever recorded.
While there is not yet a clear picture of how strong the coming El Niño event might be or how long it might last, even a relatively mild one could affect rain and temperature patterns around the world.
La Nina “acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase”, WMO chief Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
“The development of an El Nino will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records.”
(with wires)
