The 193-strong UN general assembly is expected by a massive majority on Thursday to endorse a broad resolution demanding Russia unconditionally and immediately withdraw from Ukraine’s territory, but China, South Africa, India and many countries in the global south are likely to continue to abstain, underlining their alienation from what they regarded as the west’s war.
The resolution has been the subject of weeks of negotiations and has required Ukraine’s allies in the G7 to persuade Kyiv not to press for very specific wider demands and risk seeing some of the countries that have previously voted for Ukraine’s sovereignty peeling off.
The last time the UN general assembly voted on the issue 143 countries backed Ukraine and only five supported Russia. Ukraine has been warned the number may slip to 135 in Thursday’s vote, marking the first anniversary of the war’s start, but Ukraine and its allies have been involved in last minute high-level lobbying of countries such as Pakistan and India.
In the debate which opened on Wednesday, Belarus tabled an amendment excising any criticism of Russia.
Ukraine had hoped to include a reference in the resolution to its 10-point plan for peace, a proposal that it first advanced at the G20 summit of world leaders held in Bali. It was also hoping to see an explicit call for a special international tribunal to try Vladimir Putin for the crime of aggression, but the west is not yet internally united on the mechanics or wisdom of a special tribunal, and the idea is likely to be seen as too punitive by some countries in the previous pro-Ukraine alliance.
The global south is meanwhile eager to bring the war to a speedy end, and does not want a threatened war crimes tribunal deterring the Russian political elite from reaching a settlement.
Wording in the resolution has been included to woo the global south and its desire for a swift end to the war by including a reference “to the need to reach, as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in line with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.
It also calls on “member States and international organisations to redouble support for diplomatic efforts to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine, consistent with the UN charter”.
The reference to the UN charter gives Ukraine and its military backers the means to argue the UN is not pressing Kyiv to accept a premature cessation of hostilities that might undermine the integrity of Ukraine or its current internationally recognised borders.
The resolution also acknowledges deep concern at “the adverse impact of the war on global food security, energy and nuclear security and safety, and the environment”.
Without endorsing an international tribunal, it asserts “the need to ensure accountability for the most serious crimes under international law committed on the territory of Ukraine through appropriate, fair and independent investigations and prosecutions at the national or international level, and ensure justice for all victims and the prevention of future crimes.”
Through the war the UN general assembly votes have been taken as a barometer of world opinion. In March, within ten days of Russia’s all-out invasion, 141 of the general assembly’s 193 members – including majorities of all its regional groups – voted to condemn the act of aggression.
Six months later, despite warnings of “Ukraine fatigue” spreading among UN members, an even larger number made clear that they retained sympathy with Ukraine as regards its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity. After Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to annex four regions of Ukraine, 143 members backed an October resolution rejecting the move as illegal.
The International Crisis Group has pointed out that “many of the countries that voted in principled support of Ukraine – such as Brazil, Indonesia and Arab states – declined to join international sanctions on Russia. India, the current chair of the G20, has even gone so far as to say it does not want an extension of sanctions discussed during the G20 this year. It is even reluctant to describe the war as a war in communique texts, preferring instead a crisis or a challenge.
Moreover, quite a few countries that joined the overwhelming March and October majorities at the general assembly declined to vote in favour of resolutions that applied more concrete penalties to Moscow. Only 93 UN members for instance backed a resolution suspending Russia from the UN human rights council in April.
The Crisis Group says the previous votes have not produced a clear division across the globe between democrats and autocrats. Its survey found in last October’s vote rejecting Russia’s purported annexations of Ukrainian territory, 21 of the 55 states that Freedom House classifies as “not free” backed Ukraine.
Despite Joe Biden’s pro-democracy rhetoric in Warsaw this week, the West at the UN has framed the votes in terms of upholding territorial integrity and sovereignty rather than defending Ukraine as a democracy.
Polling from the ECFR thinktank this week showed 54 % of Indians want the war to end quickly even if it means Ukraine had to give up territory, in effect providing a reward for Russia’s use of military force. More than half of the Indians polled said Russia was an ally that shares our values, and interests, and more than 60% of Indians thought the conflict made them think Russia is much stronger than they previously thought. Yet at the same time 48% of Indians think the US is acting to defend Ukraine’s democracy or territorial integrity.
Separately, many foreign ministers on the 15-strong security council will hold a meeting on the anniversary of the war.
