The price of an Ulster Fry is at its highest since 2014 according to Ulster Bank chief economist Richard Ramsey.
Results of the bank’s latest annual Ulster Fry Index were revealed during breakfast at St George’s Market ahead of this year’s Balmoral Show.
Predicting a “painful few years”, Mr Ramsey warned on Tuesday that the local dish’s 6.14% inflation hike could soon be heading into double digits because of the war in Ukraine.
Read more: Banks in Northern Ireland address Russian oil and gas links
And it wasn’t good news for consumers or farmers as the experts say we can all expect food, fuel and energy prices to increase further as a new cost of living crisis heaps even more pressure on NI households.
The bank, which sponsors the Balmoral Show, says it is committed to supporting the local agri-food sector to keep putting food on the table while meeting climate commitments.
Ulster Bank Head of Northern Ireland Mark Crimmins said: “The agri-food sector is a key pillar of the Northern Ireland economy, and we remain strongly committed to supporting it through the many challenges it currently faces.
“In particular, we want to work in partnership with the sector to tackle climate change and provide the tools and expertise agri-businesses need to fulfil their green ambitions.”
To do that, he said the bank has “recently launched two new green propositions including green loans and green asset finance options for qualifying SMEs”.
“All of our business managers now undergo specialist climate training and are now fully equipped to assist customers, including those in the agri-sector, on their sustainability journey,” he added.
Ulster Bank Senior Agriculture Manager Cormac McKervey says “farmers in Northern Ireland are operating through very challenging times and the pace and scale at which input costs continue to rise is alarming”.
He said that while farm gate prices for beef, lamb, grains and milk are “at an all time high” margins are actually lower for the produce in some cases this year.
When it comes to the Ulster fry, milk is up 16.7%, eggs 8.2%, butter 6%, mushrooms 7.1%, bread 5.6% and sausages 4.3%.
While overall this equates an inflation rate of 6.4% in the past year, the Ulster Fry Index has risen a whopping 29% since the last recession in 2008.
Richard Ramsey said: “What the Ulster Fry Index is telling us is that the prices of everyday items like milk and bread are rising really strongly at a time households are also having to contend with big rises in their household energy bills.
“Given the surge in energy prices already, alongside the disruption to the global food supply-chain stemming from the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Ulster Fry Index is expected to experience double-digit inflation over the next 12 months.
“This would see the Ulster Fry Index hit a new record high.
“What Saudi Arabia is to oil, Ukraine and Russia are to cereal crops. And don’t forget that cereal crops aren’t just a direct source of food, they are also a major indirect source of food in that they are fed to the livestock that we then consume.
“Food supply problems will further fuel economic nationalism due to the scramble for food security, meaning the further unwinding of globalisation, or de-globalisation.
“Such is the concern about the supply of food that countries are now hoarding and stockpiling by banning exports.”
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