Kremlin tyrant Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a fall in Russia’s birth rate, Western officials revealed today.
With young Russian men fighting and dying in the war - and other families fleeing their homeland to avoid being dragged into the conflict - the impact on the nation’s future is already unfolding, sources said.
“Our expectation is that we are going to see some really serious social decline,” said officials.
“Very large numbers of young, educated Russians have fled the country; there are already some early figures coming in showing significant declines in the birth rate.
“We are seeing an increase in violent crime, repression continues to increase (and) propaganda continues to intensify.”
They added: “A huge shadow hangs over Russia’s present and its future.”
Britain holds a minute’s silence at 11am next Friday to mark the first anniversary of the war.
The officials said that while the conflict had been “devastating” for Ukraine, it had been “terrible” and “humbling” for Russia.
“Rather than increasing Russia’s importance and stature and confirming its great power status, Russia has been diminished,” they warned.
“Its global influence has been significantly reduced, its mineral wealth, its human capital, has been squandered on a pointless war of aggression.”
The officials said “future prospects look very bleak”, with Russia’s economy forecast to plunge again as European nations wean themselves off its gas supplies and sanctions tighten.
Latest assessments show the war “grinding on with no end in sight”, but the “rhetoric from the leadership is absolutely extraordinary, as Russians are told that they are in an existential struggle with the West and Ukrainian Nazis”.
Estimates of Russian casualties, including those killed and seriously wounded, start at more than 100,000, though the Kremlin refuses to confirm numbers.
“It’s really clear that Russian losses are horrendous,” said officials, who were unsure if the Kremlin’s spring offensive in Ukraine had begun.
While it was “quite clear that a push has started … is this the start of a huge offensive?” they added.
Experts are wondering, “this really can’t be it, they must have a bit more than this,” revealed the officials.
They said: “I think we were all expecting something a bit bigger than what we are seeing now.”
The war’s impact could eventually topple Putin, 70, amid growing murmurings about who might succeed him.
Officials believe “that this is such a catastrophic error of judgement, and this is harming both the present and future of Russia, and humbling Russia to such a degree, that it has damaged President Putin,” they said.
“People are talking about succession in a way that they weren’t a year ago.
“But what there isn’t in a place like Russia is a clear pathway to change.”
However, they admitted that if Putin stood for election again in March 2024 - and the legitimacy of ballots in Russia are treated with scepticism by observers - “it’s hard to see that he wouldn’t win - in a way that one wins elections” in Russia.
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