Russian attacks on Ukraine were used as the model for Iran’s weekend barrage of drones and missiles against Israel, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed. “The drones were launched well before the ballistic missiles were fired, very likely in the expectation that they would arrive in Israel’s air defence window at about the same time as the cruise missiles and drones. The Russians have used such an approach against Ukraine repeatedly.”
Unlike Israel, Ukraine was unable to use fighter jets to shoot down large numbers of Russian drones and cruise missiles, said the ISW. “Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently observed that Kyiv will likely use the F-16s Ukraine will receive this summer in those roles.”
The thinktank said Ukrainian air defences had averaged interception rates of about 46% of ballistic missiles during recent large strikes; whereas only a few got through to Israel, out of the roughly 120 fired by Iran – many more than used in any single strike by Russia against Ukraine.
Russian forces aim to capture the town of Chasiv Yar by 9 May, Ukraine’s commander in chief, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said. It is the date Russia marks as the Soviet victory in the second world war. Syrskyi said Russia was focusing its efforts there before moving towards the city of Kramatorsk. Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region lies 5-10km (3-6 miles) from Bakhmut, captured by Russian forces in May 2023.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a thinktank in Philadelphia, said on X that Chasiv Yar would likely prove an important battle. “Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground. If Russia takes the [town], they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk [region] as part of an expected summer offensive. Russian forces will still have to cross the canal to take the [town], but they have now reached the canal south-east of the [town]. Immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical.”
Fragments from a downed Russia missile fell on a settlement outside the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Sunday, injuring 12 people, said the regional governor. Serhiy Lysak said the debris fell on a settlement known as Liubymivska Community. A child was among those injured, and more than 30 private homes suffered damage.
Lysak said Russian forces used artillery in 11 attacks on the town of Nikopol, a frequent target opposite the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. He said four people had been injured.
In Donetsk region, the focal point of Russia’s slow advance through eastern Ukraine, the governor, Vadym Filashkin, said an aerial bomb struck a five-storey apartment block in the town of Ocheretyne, killing one and injuring two.
Three people were reported killed in the region on Saturday.One man was killed on Sunday when a Russian drone hit the truck he was driving in the Sumy region, the local prosecutor’s office said. Officials in the Kharkiv region said they retrieved the bodies of a 61-year-old woman and a 68-year-old man killed by a Russian strike the previous day.
Shelling in the Russian-occupied part of Kherson region killed two civilians on Sunday, said Vladimir Saldo, an official of the Russian occupation. Ukrainian drones were reported in Russia’s Krasnodar and Belgorod regions and over the Black Sea, the Russian defence ministry said.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in his nightly address on Sunday: “The situation at the front during such a hot war is always difficult. But these days – and especially on the Donetsk front – it’s getting harder.” Ukraine’s president has warned that Russia may be preparing to launch a big offensive in late spring or summer.
Zelenskiy condemned Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel and said Ukraine needed help from its allies to fend off threats from the air, just as Israel did. Zelenskiy again called on the US Congress to approve further aid.
European energy prices will rise dramatically if the Russian destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure continues unabated, Andriy Kobolyev, a former head of Ukraine’s Naftogaz, has told the Guardian. “Russia is trying to wage a global energy war and Ukraine is part of that war and if the markets perceive that Russia is winning that war … you will see a spike in prices all round the globe.”
Last week a massive missile and drone attack destroyed one of Ukraine’s largest power plants and damaged others. Kobolyev told the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour: “The solutions are twofold. First, there should be immediate supply of air defence components and munitions to protect the system. Secondly, we need to develop a new distributed and protected generation system around the country, that should replace the destroyed balancing generation.”
