What is the expected scale of the refugee crisis in Ukraine?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could see the “largest refugee crisis this century”, the UN refugee agency has warned, with up to 4 million people fleeing the country in the coming weeks and months.
More than 1 million people have already crossed borders since 24 February, when the Russian invasion began.
The 2015 refugee crisis saw 1.3 million people attempt to reach Europe from countries including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
Where are people going?
Domestic civilian flights were cancelled on the first day of the invasion. Since then, people have been heading west into neighbouring countries including Poland, Romania, Moldova and Hungary.
More than half – nearly 548,000 – have fled to Poland which shares a 500km border with Ukraine. A further 133,000 have gone to Hungary, 72,000 to Slovakia, 51,260 to Romania, and nearly 98,000 to non-EU Moldova, Europe’s poorest country. A small number, just over 350, have travelled to Belarus.
What has been the response of neighbouring countries?
In contrast to previous migration waves, neighbouring countries such as Poland and Hungary have opened their borders to everyone fleeing the Russian attacks. However, there have been reports of people of colour trying to flee Ukraine, mostly students from Africa and the Middle East, being pushed back and suffering racial discrimination when trying to cross borders.
At the Polish border, people, mostly women and children, are waiting up to 60 hours to cross. Ukrainian men are not allowed to leave as they are legally obliged to help defend the country. The UN refugee agency says conditions are bleak, temperatures are freezing and many are spending days on the road waiting to cross.
The Polish authorities have offered comprehensive help to refugees, including free train travel and access to healthcare. Poland also dropped its requirement to show a negative Covid test.
Hungary has opened sections of its border that were closed to migration. Moldova already has networks of volunteers providing support and hosting families crossing the border.
Germany and Austria are offering free train travel to those seeking to reach their countries.
What has been the response across Europe?
The EU has reacted with a swift and unified response. By the end of this week, EU member states are expected to have triggered a hitherto unused directive, created in 2001 after the wars in Yugoslavia and Kosovo, known as the Temporary Protection Directive.
Designed to operate when the traditional asylum system is overwhelmed, it is expected to give Ukrainian refugees the right to live and work in the EU for up to three years. Ukrainians will also be able to work, access education and housing without having to claim asylum.
However, the directive will not offer these rights to non-Ukrainian nationals such as temporary workers or students. The European Commission’s original proposal for the directive was also watered down in relation to “third country” [non-EU or Efta trade bloc] nationals who have long-term residence in Ukraine. National asylum laws will apply to them. It is understood that Poland and Hungary were the most vocal in calling for these changes.
What has the UK response been so far?
So far the UK has struck a different tone to its European neighbours. The government has said it could take in 200,000 or more refugees, if they are relatives of British nationals or Ukrainian people already settled here. Businesses will also be allowed to sponsor a Ukrainian person to come to the UK.
